TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 7, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 34 points or -1.45% downside to 1374 and 0.99% upside to 1408.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/06 NYSE 765
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of 1998
- VOLUME: on 08/06 NYSE 647.20
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -14.12%
- VIX: as of 08/06 was at 15.95
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 1.98%
- Year-to-date decrease of -31.84%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/06 closed at 1.54
- Up from the day prior at 1.27
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.59%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.57%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.35
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.33
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 6am: EFSF to sell up to EU1.5b 91-day bills
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
- 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, June, est. 3717 (prior 3642)
- 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes in 8/15/2018 to 5/15/2020 range
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-week bills
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-year notes
- 2:30pm: Fed’s Bernanke speaks by video on financial education in Washington
- 3pm: Consumer Credit, June, est. $10.5b (prior $17.118b, revised)
- 4:30pm: API inventories
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House, Senate meet in pro-forma sessions
- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., Center for American Progress host National Clean Energy Summit, with speakers include Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, former President Bill Clinton
- FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski, Ben Hecht, chairman of Connect2Compete announce launch of nationwide computer recycling, donation effort, 11am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Standard Chartered plunges; faces New York suspension on Iran
- HTC extends decline to 2008 low after forecast of sales drop
- Pfizer-J&J drop Alzheimer’s drug trials after second failure
- Chesapeake posts record profit as asset-sale goals expand
- Knight Capital’s three new board members will be picked by Blackstone, General Atlantic, the board w/ Jefferies approval
- SEC freezes another $6m in Nexen insider-trading case
- Icahn seeks talks to buy remaining CVR Energy shrs, $29 ea.
- Second TSE system error in seven months halts derivatives
- Italian economy contracts for 4th straight quarter amid slump
- CFA Level III exam results due today
- Hedge funds gained 0.2% last month, trailing stocks
- U.S. CEOs less confident on economy: survey
EARNINGS:
- Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:30am, $1.00
- CVS Caremark (CVS) 6:45am, $0.80; Preview
- Church & Dwight (CHD) 7am, $0.55
- Fossil (FOSL) 7am, $0.79
- Marsh & McLennan (MMC) 7am, $0.58
- Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) 7am, $0.02
- TransDigm Group (TDG) 7am, $1.70
- MGM Resorts (MGM) 7:30am, $(0.15)
- Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) 7:30am, $1.20
- Oaktree Capital (OAK) 7:30am, $0.61
- Tenet Healthcare (THC) 7:30am, $0.05
- Pepco Holdings (POM) 7:35am, $0.31
- Melco Crown (MPEL) 7:40am, $0.17
- Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP-U CN) 8am, $0.10
- Charter Communications (CHTR) 8am, $(0.21)
- Cablevision Systems (CVC) 8:30am, $0.19
- FirstEnergy (FE) 8:30am, $0.64
- PG&E (PCG) 9:01am, $0.82
- Primaris Retail REIT (PMZ-U CN) 4pm, C$0.36
- Rackspace Hosting (RAX) 4pm, $0.18
- TW Telecom (TWTC) 4pm, $0.14
- Priceline.com (PCLN) 4:01pm, $7.36
- XL Group (XL) 4:01pm, $0.55
- Alterra Capital Holdings (ALTE) 4:04pm, $0.58
- Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) 4:04pm, $0.06
- Express Scripts Holding (ESRX) 4:05pm, $0.82; Preview
- Walt Disney (DIS) 4:14pm, $0.93
- Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) 4:40pm, $0.38
- Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 4:40pm, $0.46
- Renren (RENN) 5pm, $(0.04)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – ripping humanity a new one this morning on the real (inflation adjusted) consumption growth front. At $110, Brent is up +25% since June! So get ready for every CPI and PPI report to accelerate, after they’ve deflated for the last few months; economic tailwind is now a big headwind.
- Iron-Ore Rout Seen Curbing Losses for Commodity Ships: Freight
- Rice Hoard Offers World Respite as Food Costs Surge: Commodities
- SovEcon Says Russian Wheat Harvest May Be Lower Than in 2010
- Soybeans Gain as Rains Seen Failing to Revive Drought-Hit Crop
- Barrick Gold Studies Acquiring Assets as It Reviews Costly Mines
- Chinese Smelters May Boost Copper Exports After Tolling Tax Cut
- Gold Increases on Speculation a Weaker Dollar Will Spur Demand
- Japan Seeks to Buy 106,530 Tons of Milling Wheat in Tender
- Copper Gains for Third Day Before China Inflation Data This Week
- CBH Says Western Australia Grain Shipments May Climb to Record
- Crude Supplies Fall to Three-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
- Palm Oil to Drop on Weak Demand, Stockpiles, TransGraph Says
- Asteroid Mining Venture Adds Google-Backed Billionaire Investors
- Richest Family Offices Seeing Fastest Growth as Firms Oust Banks
- Cotton Harvest in India to Tumble as Dry Weather Hurts Crops
- China Overtakes South Africa on Ferrochrome Output, Merafe Says
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ITALY – good news, Italy is experiencing a stagflating recession (Q2 GDP -2.5% y/y), youth unemployment just hit 36%, but “the stock market is up.” So is Venezuela’s. This short squeeze has been impressive.
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – Asia’s 2-day equity rally ends on a whimper w/ China closing +0.13%, KOSPI +0.05%, and Singapore -0.14% (Japan was up +0.88%, failed right at immediate-term TRADE resistance of 8813). Where do we go from here? Australia said no more rate cuts for you. Brent Oil at $110 is not good for whatever is left of Eastern consumption growth.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team