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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 7, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 34 points or -1.45% downside to 1374 and 0.99% upside to 1408. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/06 NYSE 765
    • Down  versus the prior day’s trading of 1998
  • VOLUME: on 08/06 NYSE 647.20
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -14.12%
  • VIX:  as of 08/06 was at 15.95
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 1.98%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -31.84%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/06 closed at 1.54
    • Up from the day prior at 1.27 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.59%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.57%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.35
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.33 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 6am: EFSF to sell up to EU1.5b 91-day bills
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, June, est. 3717 (prior 3642)
  • 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes in 8/15/2018 to 5/15/2020 range
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-week bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-year notes
  • 2:30pm: Fed’s Bernanke speaks by video on financial education in Washington
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, June, est. $10.5b (prior $17.118b, revised)
  • 4:30pm: API inventories 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House, Senate meet in pro-forma sessions
    • Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., Center for American Progress host National Clean Energy Summit, with speakers include Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, former President Bill Clinton
    • FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski, Ben Hecht, chairman of Connect2Compete announce launch of nationwide computer recycling, donation effort, 11am 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Standard Chartered plunges; faces New York suspension on Iran
  • HTC extends decline to 2008 low after forecast of sales drop
  • Pfizer-J&J drop Alzheimer’s drug trials after second failure
  • Chesapeake posts record profit as asset-sale goals expand
  • Knight Capital’s three new board members will be picked by Blackstone, General Atlantic, the board w/ Jefferies approval
  • SEC freezes another $6m in Nexen insider-trading case
  • Icahn seeks talks to buy remaining CVR Energy shrs, $29 ea.
  • Second TSE system error in seven months halts derivatives
  • Italian economy contracts for 4th straight quarter amid slump
  • CFA Level III exam results due today
  • Hedge funds gained 0.2% last month, trailing stocks
  • U.S. CEOs less confident on economy: survey 

EARNINGS:

    • Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:30am, $1.00
    • CVS Caremark (CVS) 6:45am, $0.80; Preview
    • Church & Dwight (CHD) 7am, $0.55
    • Fossil (FOSL) 7am, $0.79
    • Marsh & McLennan (MMC) 7am, $0.58
    • Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) 7am, $0.02
    • TransDigm Group (TDG) 7am, $1.70
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) 7:30am, $(0.15)
    • Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) 7:30am, $1.20
    • Oaktree Capital (OAK) 7:30am, $0.61
    • Tenet Healthcare (THC) 7:30am, $0.05
    • Pepco Holdings (POM) 7:35am, $0.31
    • Melco Crown (MPEL) 7:40am, $0.17
    • Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP-U CN) 8am, $0.10
    • Charter Communications (CHTR) 8am, $(0.21)
    • Cablevision Systems (CVC) 8:30am, $0.19
    • FirstEnergy (FE) 8:30am, $0.64
    • PG&E (PCG) 9:01am, $0.82
    • Primaris Retail REIT (PMZ-U CN) 4pm, C$0.36
    • Rackspace Hosting (RAX) 4pm, $0.18
    • TW Telecom (TWTC) 4pm, $0.14
    • Priceline.com (PCLN) 4:01pm, $7.36
    • XL Group (XL) 4:01pm, $0.55
    • Alterra Capital Holdings (ALTE) 4:04pm, $0.58
    • Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) 4:04pm, $0.06
    • Express Scripts Holding (ESRX) 4:05pm, $0.82; Preview
    • Walt Disney (DIS) 4:14pm, $0.93
    • Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) 4:40pm, $0.38
    • Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 4:40pm, $0.46
    • Renren (RENN) 5pm, $(0.04) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – ripping humanity a new one this morning on the real (inflation adjusted) consumption growth front. At $110, Brent is up +25% since June! So get ready for every CPI and PPI report to accelerate, after they’ve deflated for the last few months; economic tailwind is now a big headwind.

  • Iron-Ore Rout Seen Curbing Losses for Commodity Ships: Freight
  • Rice Hoard Offers World Respite as Food Costs Surge: Commodities
  • SovEcon Says Russian Wheat Harvest May Be Lower Than in 2010
  • Soybeans Gain as Rains Seen Failing to Revive Drought-Hit Crop
  • Barrick Gold Studies Acquiring Assets as It Reviews Costly Mines
  • Chinese Smelters May Boost Copper Exports After Tolling Tax Cut
  • Gold Increases on Speculation a Weaker Dollar Will Spur Demand
  • Japan Seeks to Buy 106,530 Tons of Milling Wheat in Tender
  • Copper Gains for Third Day Before China Inflation Data This Week
  • CBH Says Western Australia Grain Shipments May Climb to Record
  • Crude Supplies Fall to Three-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Palm Oil to Drop on Weak Demand, Stockpiles, TransGraph Says
  • Asteroid Mining Venture Adds Google-Backed Billionaire Investors
  • Richest Family Offices Seeing Fastest Growth as Firms Oust Banks
  • Cotton Harvest in India to Tumble as Dry Weather Hurts Crops
  • China Overtakes South Africa on Ferrochrome Output, Merafe Says

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – good news, Italy is experiencing a stagflating recession (Q2 GDP -2.5% y/y), youth unemployment just hit 36%, but “the stock market is up.” So is Venezuela’s. This short squeeze has been impressive.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – Asia’s 2-day equity rally ends on a whimper w/ China closing +0.13%, KOSPI +0.05%, and Singapore -0.14% (Japan was up +0.88%, failed right at immediate-term TRADE resistance of 8813). Where do we go from here? Australia said no more rate cuts for you. Brent Oil at $110 is not good for whatever is left of Eastern consumption growth.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 



Comanche Market

“… and meant, anyone who is against me all the time.”

-S.C Gwynne

 

That’s what the white guys in New Mexico “translated in various ways (Cumanche, Commanche), but eventually as “Comanche.” It would take the Spaniards years to figure out exactly who these new invaders were.” (S.C. Gwynne)

 

As I come to the end of what’s been a wildly educating experience reading Gwynne’s Empire of The Summer Moon, it’s twisting so many thoughts in my head that I don’t particularly know what I’m allowed to write about it. So I’ll just stop there.

 

All I can tell you is that as a professional short seller of everything US Dollar debauchery and centrally planned markets, I’m getting really comfortable having all of the same people against me all of the time. Their moves are becoming blatantly predictable.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Against me? How about +25% at the pump against you? That’s what the price of Brent Oil has done since it bottomed at the end of June. With the US Dollar down now for 3 consecutive weeks, the purchasing power of your currency is once again under enemy attack.

 

Enemy? Who is the enemy? Is it Johnny Hilsenrath with his now almost daily Dollar debauchery articles in the Wall Street Journal? Or is it his editor? Or is it his editor’s brother’s boss who just plowed back a $35,000 plate at Obama’s CT dinner last night?

 

Whoever you are, market prices can see you now.

 

Got causality (begging for more Qe policies) that are driving immediate-term market price correlations? Here’s an update on that (USD versus Big Macro stock and commodity market moves in the last 3 weeks):

 

  1. Brent Oil vs USD = -0.74
  2. SP500 vs USD = -0.90
  3. EuroStoxx600 vs USD = -0.92

 

That’s right folks. Today’s centrally planned market is American-European. How else can Italy deliver a -2.5% year-over-year GDP disaster for Q2 2012 this morning (and 36% youth unemployment), and have their stock market “up” on that? Dollar down this morning.

 

Devaluing your currency is cool though, right? Look at how well life is going in Venezuela after Chavez devalued The People’s currency by 50%. The stock market  in Venezuela leads the world YTD at +110% YTD (not a typo). How screwed up is that?

 

President Obama and his centrally planned stock market advisors have figured this out. If the US stock market goes up, his chances of winning the Presidential Election go way up. In this morning’s Chart of The Day, we show you that in our Hedgeye Election Indicator:

 

  1. Obama’s chances went up +110 basis points wk-over-wk
  2. At 58.7% probability, this is the highest we’ve scored Obama’s chances since mid-May
  3. Unless the US Dollar stops going down (and US stock stop going up), Obama could run the tables

 

Now isn’t that a tad perverse? Burn The People’s hard earned currency at the stake, keep rates of return on hard earned Fixed Incomes at 0%, and pretend that jamming them with $4.50/gallon at the pump isn’t going to leave a mark on the 99%’s dinner table tonight.

 

#nice

 

Unfortunately, the globally interconnected growth signals around the world get that Down Dollar, Up Oil is only going to perpetuate the world’s biggest problem (#GrowthSlowing) further.

 

Here’s your latest real-time signaling on the Global Macro front:

 

  1. Chinese Stocks (Shanghai Composite) whimpered in day 2 of the “stock market rally”, closing up +0.13%, failing at resistance
  2. South Korea’s leading indicator (KOSPI) barely banged out a green close last night, closing +0.05%, failing at resistance
  3. Dr. Copper, one of the world’s best growth indicators, was down -1.7% last week, and remains broken this morning at $3.40

 

Those are just growth signals though (Asia, demand, etc.). But who needs those when we can chase Energy and Basic Material stocks in order to keep up with the SP500’s “being up” +1% already for August?

 

We’ve seen this movie before. Month by month, we’re killing whatever trust remains in our said “free” markets. Like the devastation of what was a wild, yet free, Comancheria, a centrally planned life ends in tears for many, and smiles for some.

 

Eric Rosengren, inflation is not growth.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, Russell2000, and the SP500 are now $1, $106.40-110.84, $82.05-82.84, $1.23-1.24, 782-803, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Comanche Market - Chart of the Day

 

Comanche Market - Virtual Portfolio


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RL: Idea Alert

Keith shorted RL into tomorrow’s print for a TRADE. To be clear on this one, there’s a sharp delineation between where we like RL over each duration. In the event of a sell-off, we'd be looking for a point of entry once the dust settles to get involved with what could be $12 in earnings power. 

 

TAIL (3-Years or Less): This is one of our favorite TAIL ideas, as we think that the consensus is underestimating RL’s 3-year earnings power by  nearly a dollar. When we add up the opportunities by country, product category, and most notably – by channel (ie dot.com), we think that people are underestimating the leverage inherent to this model.  Specifically, we’re looking at nearly $10 in EPS next year, and over $11.50 the year after. A 10% premium to the market suggests a stock near $175. A 1x PEG is $200+ over 2 years.

 

TREND (3-Months or More): RL still has a full 75% of its (March) FY left to go, so the company will be guarded into the print. RL laps European category expansion (intro of Polo FW), Denim & Supply, FX, and double digit retail comps – which are tougher to bank on this year.

 

TRADE (3-Weeks or Less): The company has every reason in the world to offer up a cautious outlook – given all that’s going on in the world – especially Western Europe (it has minimal exposure to China) and the clear trend of other companies putting up weak numbers. Add in the Olympic spending, tough wholesale and store productivity comps, and our analysis that stretches to find more than 10% of CFO changes that end up being a near-term positive earnings event, and we’re more inclined to be on the negative side of this print. This is a perfect ‘buy on pullback’ stock. 

 

RL: Idea Alert - RL TTT


President Obama's Reelection Chances

*Note: last week’s 58.2% reading was revised down to 57.6% post our latest update of the multiple regression model. Also, 58.7% is good for the highest reading since mid-MAY.

 

As the fundraising battle heats up and we head into August, President Obama continues to stay ahead according to the Hedgeye Election Indicator. Week-over-week, the President’s chances of being reelected rose 1.1% to 58.7%

 

Hedgeye developed the HEI to understand the relationship between key market and economic data and the US Presidential Election. After rigorous back testing, Hedgeye has determined that there are a short list of real time market-based indicators, that move ahead of President Obama’s position in conventional polls or other measures of sentiment.

 

Based on our analysis, market prices will adjust in real-time ahead of economic conditions, which will ultimately shape voters’ perception of the Obama Presidency, the Republican candidates and influence the probability of an Obama reelection.  The model assumes that the Presidential election would be held today against any Republican candidate. Our model is indifferent toward who the Republican candidate is as the sentiment for Obama and for any Republican opponent is imputed in the market prices that determine the HEI. The HEI is based on a scale of 0 – 200, with 100 equating to a 50% probability that President Obama would win or lose if the election were held today.

 

President Obama’s reelection chances reached a peak of 62.3% on March 26, according to the HEI. Hedgeye will release the HEI every Tuesday at 7am ET until election day November 6.

 

 

President Obama's Reelection Chances - HEI


WMS 2Q 2012 REPORT CARD

In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance

 

 

OVERALL

  • WORSE:  Better results on the game sales side were offset by continued poor gaming operations performance.  Investments in the interactive crushed margins, leading to an EPS miss.  Guidance of basically flat YoY EPS, which is 23% below consensus estimates has got to be hugely disappointing.

OVERALL PERFORMANCE IN F4Q

  • WORSE:  Gaming operations produced yet another miss.  Despite increases in the EOP install base, the average install base actually decreased. So much for the backlog.
  • PREVIOUSLY: “Typically we see our Q4 ramping up to be our seasonally busiest quarter of the year. It goes Q4, Q3, Q2, Q1. And so I think April, the month of April was a little bit softer than we would like in our gaming operations business. But our order book is building dramatically, so that offsets that.”

FY4Q REVENUE AND MARGIN PERFORMANCE

  • WORSE:  Revenues were down 4% YoY but operating margins also decreased from 34.1% to 33.9% YoY
  • PREVIOUSLY: “We expect total revenues in the June 2012 quarter to be modestly below year-ago June quarterly revenues, while our operating margin is expected to improve on a year-over-year basis, adjusting out the net impact of restructuring, impairment and other charges in the prior year.”

12-24 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR GAMING OPS

  • WORSE:  WMS still expects growth in the their participation install base in 2013 although given the heightened competition they're not sure of what churn will look like
  • PREVIOUSLY: “We believe that WMS has turned the corner on our efforts to restore growth in our gaming operations business. Looking out over the next few quarters, we expect our normalized flow of innovative new products for our product sales and participation operations scheduled to launch during the next 12 to 24 months.”

INSTALL BASE GROWTH

  • WORSE:  End of period units increased but that did little to help the quarter since the average install base was still down QoQ due to high churn.  Revenue per day was also down.  WMS remains hopeful for growth in the install base in FY13, but the talk on the call was definitely toned down from last quarter.
  • PREVIOUSLY: “With current open orders for now over 2,100 units and five new participation games expected to receive their regulatory approvals this quarter…. and with our improving product performance, we expect further growth in the installed participation base and revenue per day in the June quarter and beyond.  We're confident that the unusually high number of refreshes in the last several quarters will moderate over the next several quarters and slowly return to more historical rates. 

2012 NEW OPENING FLOOR SHARE

  • SAME: Floor share of new casinos openings was in the high-teens as expected
  • PREVIOUSLY:  “Our floor share for new casino openings this year is expected to be in the high teens”

SHIP SHARE OUTLOOK

  • WORSE:  WMS guided to modest growth in ship share in the US & Canada which we do not believe is good enough to get to mid-20's ship share
  • PREVIOUSLY: “We expect over time to recapture ship share and reestablish our fair share of the market.  I would expect us to get back to more the mid-20%s here in fiscal 2013 based on the performance of our content and we're very excited”

NEW UNIT PRICING

  • SAME:  ASPs came in just under $16k.  WMS expects continued pricing pressures into next year. They do not expect any ASP growth with VLT mix offsetting the impact of their new cabinet in late FY13.
  • PREVIOUSLY: “I would think that from a modeling standpoint, you'd probably want to use the last three quarters or so as a more typical ASP price going forward. I think given the competitive pressures, you're not going see us have great pricing leverage in the next two to three quarters, but I think it will be a more normalized run rate going forward, call it the $16,000 range.”

ASP OUTLOOK

  • WORSE:  Given the current market place environment coupled with the expected range of VLT pricing from ongoing market pressures, ASPs in FY13 are likely to exhibit greater variability on a quarterly sequential basis depending on the product mix in the given quarter.  Their new cabinet release in 2H13 is not likely to be able to offset pricing pressures in 1H13.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  “I think that going forward, you're going to continue to see us be competitive with pricing. I wouldn't use the word aggressive but we're going to be competitive.  We have several premium for sale products coming out in fiscal 2013 that we hope will drive ASP.” 

COMMERCIALIZATION OF CPU-NXT3

  • SAME:  WMS launched their first 2 games in the June quarter on their new platform
  • PREVIOUSLY: “I am excited by the prospects to reenergize our customer slot floors with the innovation and potential that will come with the launch of our first games, our next-generation CPU-NXT3 operating system…We are on track to commercialize this new operating system on the Sensory Immersion 2.0 platform, with initial approvals and the launch of the Aladdin & Magic Quest game in the latter part of the June quarter.”

MY POKER UPDATE

  • SAME:  Expect to ship a few hundred My Poker units in the December 2012 quarter
  • PREVIOUSLY: “Another driver of revenue by the end of calendar 2012 will come from the expected launch of My Poker video poker platform.”

IL & ITALY UPDATE

  • WORSE:  IL is still expected to benefit 2013 but there was no mention of Italy
  • PREVIOUSLY: “We anticipate the placements of VLTs in Illinois and Italy, which we expect to begin in fiscal 2013, may result in a greater amount of operating leases, which will require gaming operations capital.”

FY13 CAPEX GUIDANCE

  • SAME:  WMS expects a 20% YoY decline in aggregate capex spending- mostly on the PP&E side
  • PREVIOUSLY: “Looking to fiscal 2013, we expect capital expenditures for property plant and equipment to decline as we'll complete two significant projects over the next few months.”

4Q CAPEX

  • WORSE:  Capex was $58MM - up a lot QoQ
  • PREVIOUSLY: “June quarter… it's likely that CapEx in gaming operations is going to be at or a little above what it was in Q3 as we now get to the point of … incrementing the installed base:”

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