July mix much more favorable. LVS ramping even before the September expansion.
As we already knew, July GGR growth came in at +1.5% (+1.9% in USD). The good news is that when we take into account the impact of the typhoon and slightly low hold in July coupled with a difficult YoY comparison, July would have been 5-6% better than the 1.5% YoY print. Mass and slot revenues continuing to come in strong, posting 32% and 15% YoY growth, respectively. Slot revenue continued to chug along, increasing 15% YoY. The bad news, which should come as no surprise, is that VIP volume was down 2.4% YoY, marking the second month of YoY decline. For the 2nd month in a row, 4 of the 6 concessionaires experienced YoY declines in Junket RC volume.
We estimate that total direct play this month accounted for 6.4% of the market, compared with 7.1% in July 2011. The total VIP market held at 2.89% vs. 3.03% in July 2011. Adjusting for direct play and theoretical hold of 2.85% in both months, July revenues would have increased 5.5% YoY.
LVS was the clear cut winner this month – finally capitalizing on the significant investment it made in Sands Cotai Central (SCC). High hold and an easy comparison certainly helped their position. Here are our company takeaways:
- LVS grew GGR 51% YoY with Mass up 57%. Market share climbed 280bps from June to a 2 year high. Luck played a role in the market share gain but not so much in the MoM gain since LVS held high in both periods (3.06% in June and 3.27% in July). While we don’t think its 21.4% share is sustainable until the new amenities open on 9/20/12, it is clear that volumes are moving in the right direction and 19-20% should be sustainable. This might be the Macau stock to own.
- WYNN GGR fell for the 4th consecutive month, each at an increased rate, -24% for July. Hold was close to normal and close to June’s hold; although significantly below last year. Market share fell to 11.3%, tying an all-time low. Mass share for WYNN was an all-time low by far as the property managed to eke out only a 5% YoY gain in Mass revenues.
- MPEL’s GGR fell 13% due to a 22% drop in VIP. Mass was up 28%, however. Although hold was normal, it was about 34bps below last year’s. Market share did rebound a little from the last two months, up to 13.3%.
- Low hold pushed MGM’s share down to 8.8%, the lowest since last July, but GGR did increase 11% YoY. Mass growth trailed the market and was up 21%.
- Galaxy finally took a break from its string of market share gains. Share fell to 18.9% on only a 3% YoY GGR gain. Hold was a little soft and the YoY comparison was difficult. Mass was strong, up 61%, but VIP fell 8%.
Y-o-Y Table Revenue Observations
Total table revenue growth came close to a halt, at just 1.4% in July. Mass revenue growth was 32%, compared with 38% growth in the last twelve months. VIP revenues fell 7%, while Junket RC declined 2%, the 2nd consecutive decline since June 2009.
LVS
Table revenues grew 54% YoY, garnering the best growth in the market by a mile. Sands China’s strong performance in the month of July was aided by high hold across its portfolio and an easy YoY comparison. Their properties held at 3.27%, vs 2.80% last July, adjusted for direct play.
- Sands table revenues declined 1% YoY, its best YoY performance in 4 months, but still mark the 4th consecutive month of declines. The good news is that the entire YoY decline came out of the lower yielding VIP segment.
- Mass grew 25% YoY, its best YoY growth month since Feb 2010. On an absolute basis, Mass revenues had their best month since July 2008.
- VIP declined 19% YoY. Hold was low, but last year's comparison was even easier. We estimate that Sands held at 2.66% in July compared to 2.54% in the same period last year. We assume 9% direct play in July vs 15% in July 2011 (in-line with what we saw in 2Q12).
- Junket RC was down 20%. This was the 8th consecutive month of YoY declines in VIP RC at the property.
- Venetian table grew 25% YoY, breaking a 3-month losing streak. Strong July performance was driven by strong Mass win and high hold and an easy comp on the VIP side.
- Mass increased 37%
- VIP grew 17% while junket VIP RC dropped 18%
- Assuming 28% direct play, hold was 3.84% compared to 2.72% in July 2011, assuming 24% direct play (in-line with 3Q11)
- Four Seasons continued to perform well, growing 38% YoY despite a difficult hold comp
- Mass revenues increased 25%
- VIP grew 41%, while Junket VIP RC soared 288% YoY
- If we assume that monthly direct play volume of ~$500MM is in-line with 2Q12 absolute levels, that implies a direct play percentage of 16% and a hold rate of 2.94%. In comparison, if June 2011 direct play was $460MM (or 68%), then hold was approximately 3.29%.
- Sands Cotai Central produced $135MM in July, compared with $117MM in June and May's $135MM
- Mass revenue expanded to $37MM, $3MM higher MoM
- VIP revenue of $98MM, $15MM higher MoM but below the record $102MM seen in May
- Junket RC volume of $2,620MM, a 11% MoM increase and a record for the property
- If we assume that direct play was 11%, hold would have been 3.34%
WYNN
Wynn’s share fell 40bps to 11.3%, far below its 6-month trailing average of 12.2% and 2011 average of 14.1%. We expect Wynn’s share to continue to struggle in the face of a ramping Sands Cotai Central.
- Mass market share was 7.9%, a new low
- VIP market share fell 30bps to 12.5%, the lowest share in 10 months
- Junket RC share fell 1% to 12.3%
MPEL
MPEL table revenue fell 14%, the second worst concessionaire performance. Although hold across MPEL’s two properties was normal at 2.88%, last’s year's comparison was difficult at 3.22%.
- Altira revenues fell 37%, due to a 42% decrease in VIP. Mass grew 46%. Results were negatively impacted by low hold and a difficult YoY comparison.
- VIP RC decreased 19%, marking the 8th consecutive month of declines which have averaged -20%
- We estimate that hold was 2.56%, compared to 3.57% in the prior year
- CoD table revenue grew just 2%, the properties' slowest YoY growth since lapping its first year of operations
- Mass revenue grew a healthy 27%, while VIP revenue declined 6%
- RC declined 8%
- Assuming a 15.5% direct play level, hold was 3.07% in July compared to 2.99% last year (assuming 15.7% direct play levels in-line with 3Q11)
SJM
Table revenue fell 4%, the 3rd consecutive month of declines
- Mass was up 16%, offset by a 12% drop-off in VIP
- Junket RC was down 16%. This was the 6th month of consecutive declines for VIP volume across SJM’s portfolio.
- Hold was 2.86%, compared with 2.75% last July
GALAXY
After 14 months of market leading growth, Galaxy’s growth slowed to just 2%. Mass growth still led the market though with growth of 61% which was offset by an 8% decline in VIP growth. Results were negatively impacted by a soft hold and a difficult hold comparison.
- StarWorld table revenues fell 12%
- Mass grew 51%, off-set by a 17% drop in VIP
- Junket RC fell 2%, marking the 2nd decline in a row
- Hold was 3.04%, compared with last July’s even higher hold of 3.59%
- Galaxy Macau's table revenues grew 21%. Growth was negatively impacted by low hold and a difficult YoY comp.
- Mass grew 84%
- VIP grew 7%, while RC increased 34%
- Hold was 2.62% vs 3.46% last year
MGM
With 8% YoY table growth, MGM took second place behind LVS for best table growth
- Mass revenue grew 21%
- VIP revenue grew 5%, while VIP RC declined 1.4%. MGM was only 1 of 2 concessionaires to exhibit YoY VIP rev growth.
- If direct play was 7%, then July hold was 2.6% compared to 2.4% in July 2011
Sequential Market Share
LVS
LVS was the biggest share gainer in July, closing the month at 21.4%, +2.8% MoM, the highest share since June 2010 as SCC ramps up. This compares to a 6 month trailing market share of 17.8% and 2011 average share of 15.7%.
- Sands' share was 3.9%. For comparison purposes, 2011's share of 4.6% and 6M trailing average share was 3.9%
- Mass share was 6.5%, the property's best share since the opening of SCC
- VIP rev share was 2.8%
- RC share was 2.8%, 10bps better than its 6M average
- Venetian’s share increased an impressive 1.5% to 8.9%. 2011 share was 8.4% and 6 month trailing share was 7.7%.
- Mass & VIP share increased 1.4% to 14.6% and 6.6%, respectively
- Junket RC share increased 60bps to 3.8%
- FS increased 1% to 3.7%. This compares to 2011 share of 2.2% and 6M trailing average share of 4.1%.
- VIP share increased 1.5% to 4.5%.
- Mass declined 20bps to 1.7%
- Junket RC gained 10bps to 3.9%
- Sands Cotai Central achieved table market share of 4.6% in July, the property's best market share since opening
- Mass share of 4.3% in-line with June
- VIP share of 4.7%
- Junket RC share of 3.9%, up 10bps from June’s share
WYNN
Wynn’s share fell 40bps to 11.3%, far below its 6-month trailing average of 12.2% and 2011 average of 14.1%. We expect Wynn’s share to continue to struggle in the face of a ramping Sands Cotai Central.
- Mass market share was 7.9%, a new low
- VIP market share fell 30bps to 12.5%, the lowest share in 10 months
- Junket RC share fell 1% to 12.3%
MPEL
MPEL gained 40bps of share in July to 13.3% which is in-line with their 6 month trailing share of 13.3% but below its 2011 share of 14.8%.
- Altira share fell 10bps to 3.8%, which is below its 6M trailing share of 3.9% and the property’s 2011 share of 5.3%
- Mass share increased 20bps to 1.5%
- VIP fell 30bps to 4.7% while VIP RC share actually ticked up 10bps to 5.5%
- CoD’s share grew 60bps to 9.4%; above its 2011 and 6M trailing share of 9.3% and 9.2%, respectively
- Mass market share increased 20bps to 9.7%
- VIP share grew 70bps to 9.2%
- Junket RC fell 40bps to 7.8%
SJM
SJM’s share grew 1% to 26.2% in July. However, July’s share was still lower than its 2011 average of 29.2% and its 6M trailing average of 27.0%.
- Mass market share fell 1.1% to 31.7%
- VIP share increased 1.8% to 24.9%
- Junket RC share fell 90bps to 27.0%
GALAXY
Galaxy was the biggest share loser in July, with share falling 3.1% to 18.9% below their 6M trailing share average of 19.6%
- Galaxy Macau share dropped 2.9% to 9.7%
- Mass share remained at 9.6% for the 3rd consecutive month
- VIP share plunged 4% to 9.8%
- RC share fell 90bps to 11.5%
- Starworld share fell 50bps to 8.2%
- Mass share was unchanged at 3.2%
- VIP share fell 70bps to 10.2%
- RC share picked up 30bps to 10.3%
MGM
MGM share fell 80bps to 8.8%, below its 2011 share of 10.5% and 6M average of 10.1%
- Mass share fell 1.1% to 6.6%
- VIP share fell 50bps to 9.2%
- On a positive note, Junket RC grew 170bps to 10.1%
Slot Revenue
Slot revenue grew 16% YoY to $139MM in July, 4% below the all-time high set in May
- MGM took the top prize for YoY growth of 54% to $25MM
- GALAXY had the second best growth YoY at 19% to $16MM
- LVS grew 18% YoY to $38MM
- MPEL grew 3% YoY to $24MM
- SJM was flat YoY at $15MM
- WYNN had the worst YoY performance in slots with a 1% YoY decline to $21MM- 49% below their record of $32MM set in May 2011
