TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 6, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or -1.65% downside to 1368 and 1.08% upside to 1406.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/03 NYSE 1998
- Up versus the prior day’s trading of -722
- VOLUME: on 08/03 NYSE 753.60
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -8.72%
- VIX: as of 08/03 was at 15.64
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -10.98%
- Year-to-date decrease of -33.16%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/03 closed at 1.27
- Up from the day prior at 0.97
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
UST 10yr – We guess it’s becoming summer 2012 fashion to slam bonds on Friday and chase Equities to higher lows; 10yr yield faded fast from Friday’s intraday highs; back under TRADE resistance of 1.56% this morning – watch that line alongside 1.23 EUR/USD.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.55%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.56%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.32
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.33
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 9am: Fed’s Bernanke speaks on economic measurement via prerecorded video to Cambridge, Massachusetts, audience
- 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes in 8/15/2020 to 5/15/2022 range
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. billS
- 4pm: Crop conditions
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House, Senate not in session
- FERC holds meeting by audiocast on coordination between natural gas, electricity markets -- Central Region, 9am
- Environmental Working Group, Defenders of Wildlife release report showing impacts of high crop prices, unlimited insurance subsidies on wetlands, grasslands, wildlife, 11am
- NASA’s Curiosity Rover landed safely on Mars at 1:32am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Knight Said to Avoid Insolvency With $400m From Investors
- Advent Agrees to Buy Ares’ AOT, Maker of Serta Mattresses
- Greece, Troika Agree on Need to Strengthen Policy Efforts
- Monti calls for more crisis-fighting urgency to avoid breakup
- Pimco Stock Expansion Stumbles as Gross Says Equities Cult Dead
- USDA issues weekly crop report as drought erodes yields
- Weekly U.S. agendas: Tech, Finance, Energy, Real Estate, Consumer, Industrials, Health, Transports
- Weekly Canada agendas: Mining, Energy
- Canadian mkts closed today for civic holiday
- China Exports, Mars Landing, Usain Bolt: Week Ahead
EARNINGS:
- AES (AES) 6am, $0.27
- Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) 6am, $0.80
- Cinemark Holdings (CNK) 6:36am, $0.39
- Crestwood Midstream Partners (CMLP) 7am, $0.19
- Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) 7am, $(0.10)
- Health Care REIT (HCN) 7:30am, $0.88
- Kosmos Energy (KOS) 7:30am, $(0.10)
- Tyson Foods (TSN) 7:30am, $0.54
- HCA Holdings (HCA) 7:49am, $0.78
- MFA Financial (MFA) 8:30am, $0.87
- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) 4pm, $(0.96)
- JDA Software Group (JDAS) 4pm, $0.57
- Plantronics (PLT) 4pm, $0.61
- Warnaco Group (WRC) 4:03pm, $0.64
- McDermott International (MDR) 4:05pm, $0.22
- Chesapeake Energy (CHK) 4:06pm, $0.07
- Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) 4:09pm, $1.63
- Innophos Holdings (IPHS) 4:10pm, $0.88
- CF Industries Holdings (CF) 4:15pm, $8.76
- Concho Resources (CXO) 4:15pm, $1.00
- Manitowoc (MTW) 4:31pm, $0.25
- Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) 4:55pm, $0.94
- Boston Properties (BXP) Aft-mkt, $1.24
- Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Aft-mkt, $0.01
- KAR Auction Services (KAR) After-mkt, $0.26
- Retail Properties of America (RPAI) Aft-mkt, $0.22
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Hedge Funds Cutting Oil Bets Caught in Rally: Energy Markets
- Chesapeake Cash Crunch to Widen Without Oilfield Sales: Energy
- Speculators Lift Wagers in Longest Streak on Record
- Copper Processing Fees to Climb as Mining Projects Boost Output
- Tin Spot Sales Curbed by PT Timah to Fight Slump in Prices
- Deutsche Bank Said to Close Tokyo Commodity Unit, Relocate Staff
- FAO Pares Global Rice Output Forecast as Indian Rains Falter
- Indiana Farmer Puts Purchases on Hold as Drought Breeds Doubt
- Oil Drops After Biggest Gain in Five Weeks; Atlantic Storm Slows
- Palm Oil Ends Unchanged as Rising Reserves Counter Demand Growth
- AngloGold to Boost Third-Quarter Output to Mitigate Cost Rise
- Strait of Hormuz Attack Probably Iran ‘Last Resort,’ Author Says
- Fortescue Secures $1.5 Billion Debt After Expansion Cost Overrun
- Sugar Falls a Third Day as Global Surplus Looms; Cocoa Retreats
- Monti Warns Germany That Euro Crisis Threatens Europe’s Future
- Palm-Oil Inventory in Malaysia Set to Jump Most in 10 Months
CURRENCIES
EURO – after seeing the net short position in the Euro peak around 156,000 contracts in the 3rd wk of July, the squeeze here has been obvious; now, with short covering taking that net position down, it will be important to wait/watch for Euro $1.23 to either hold or give way to lower lows. No position for us here, watching.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – after 4 straight down days, Asian equities melted right back up alongside everything else short covering in USA/Europe on Friday; Nikkei and KOSPI both up a full 2%, but both stopped just inside of immediate-term TRADE lines of 8766 and 1913 resistance; watch those levels this week for follow through/confirmation, or lack thereof.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team