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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 6, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or -1.65% downside to 1368 and 1.08% upside to 1406. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/03 NYSE 1998
    • Up  versus the prior day’s trading of -722
  • VOLUME: on 08/03 NYSE 753.60
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -8.72%
  • VIX:  as of 08/03 was at 15.64
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -10.98%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -33.16%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/03 closed at 1.27
    • Up from the day prior at 0.97 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


UST 10yr – We guess it’s becoming summer 2012 fashion to slam bonds on Friday and chase Equities to higher lows; 10yr yield faded fast from Friday’s intraday highs; back under TRADE resistance of 1.56% this morning – watch that line alongside 1.23 EUR/USD. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.55%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.56%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.32
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.33 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 9am: Fed’s Bernanke speaks on economic measurement via prerecorded video to Cambridge, Massachusetts, audience
  • 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes in 8/15/2020 to 5/15/2022 range
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. billS
  • 4pm: Crop conditions

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • FERC holds meeting by audiocast on coordination between natural gas, electricity markets -- Central Region, 9am
    • Environmental Working Group, Defenders of Wildlife release report showing impacts of high crop prices, unlimited insurance subsidies on wetlands, grasslands, wildlife, 11am
    • NASA’s Curiosity Rover landed safely on Mars at 1:32am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Knight Said to Avoid Insolvency With $400m From Investors
  • Advent Agrees to Buy Ares’ AOT, Maker of Serta Mattresses
  • Greece, Troika Agree on Need to Strengthen Policy Efforts
  • Monti calls for more crisis-fighting urgency to avoid breakup
  • Pimco Stock Expansion Stumbles as Gross Says Equities Cult Dead
  • USDA issues weekly crop report as drought erodes yields
  • Weekly U.S. agendas: Tech, Finance, Energy, Real Estate, Consumer, Industrials, Health, Transports
  • Weekly Canada agendas: Mining, Energy
  • Canadian mkts closed today for civic holiday
  • China Exports, Mars Landing, Usain Bolt: Week Ahead

EARNINGS:

    • AES (AES) 6am, $0.27
    • Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) 6am, $0.80
    • Cinemark Holdings (CNK) 6:36am, $0.39
    • Crestwood Midstream Partners (CMLP) 7am, $0.19
    • Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) 7am, $(0.10)
    • Health Care REIT (HCN) 7:30am, $0.88
    • Kosmos Energy (KOS) 7:30am, $(0.10)
    • Tyson Foods (TSN) 7:30am, $0.54
    • HCA Holdings (HCA) 7:49am, $0.78
    • MFA Financial (MFA) 8:30am, $0.87
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) 4pm, $(0.96)
    • JDA Software Group (JDAS) 4pm, $0.57
    • Plantronics (PLT) 4pm, $0.61
    • Warnaco Group (WRC) 4:03pm, $0.64
    • McDermott International (MDR) 4:05pm, $0.22
    • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) 4:06pm, $0.07
    • Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) 4:09pm, $1.63
    • Innophos Holdings (IPHS) 4:10pm, $0.88
    • CF Industries Holdings (CF) 4:15pm, $8.76
    • Concho Resources (CXO) 4:15pm, $1.00
    • Manitowoc (MTW) 4:31pm, $0.25
    • Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) 4:55pm, $0.94
    • Boston Properties (BXP) Aft-mkt, $1.24
    • Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Aft-mkt, $0.01
    • KAR Auction Services (KAR) After-mkt, $0.26
    • Retail Properties of America (RPAI) Aft-mkt, $0.22

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Hedge Funds Cutting Oil Bets Caught in Rally: Energy Markets
  • Chesapeake Cash Crunch to Widen Without Oilfield Sales: Energy
  • Speculators Lift Wagers in Longest Streak on Record
  • Copper Processing Fees to Climb as Mining Projects Boost Output
  • Tin Spot Sales Curbed by PT Timah to Fight Slump in Prices
  • Deutsche Bank Said to Close Tokyo Commodity Unit, Relocate Staff
  • FAO Pares Global Rice Output Forecast as Indian Rains Falter
  • Indiana Farmer Puts Purchases on Hold as Drought Breeds Doubt
  • Oil Drops After Biggest Gain in Five Weeks; Atlantic Storm Slows
  • Palm Oil Ends Unchanged as Rising Reserves Counter Demand Growth
  • AngloGold to Boost Third-Quarter Output to Mitigate Cost Rise
  • Strait of Hormuz Attack Probably Iran ‘Last Resort,’ Author Says
  • Fortescue Secures $1.5 Billion Debt After Expansion Cost Overrun
  • Sugar Falls a Third Day as Global Surplus Looms; Cocoa Retreats
  • Monti Warns Germany That Euro Crisis Threatens Europe’s Future
  • Palm-Oil Inventory in Malaysia Set to Jump Most in 10 Months

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


EURO – after seeing the net short position in the Euro peak around 156,000 contracts in the 3rd wk of July, the squeeze here has been obvious; now, with short covering taking that net position down, it will be important to wait/watch for Euro $1.23 to either hold or give way to lower lows. No position for us here, watching.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – after 4 straight down days, Asian equities melted right back up alongside everything else short covering in USA/Europe on Friday; Nikkei and KOSPI both up a full 2%, but both stopped just inside of immediate-term TRADE lines of 8766 and 1913 resistance; watch those levels this week for follow through/confirmation, or lack thereof.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team