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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 3, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -0.66% downside to 1356 and 0.81% upside to 1376. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/02 NYSE -722
    • Up  versus the prior day’s trading of -779
  • VOLUME: on 08/02 NYSE 825.56
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -19.47%
  • VIX:  as of 08/02 was at 17.57
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -7.33%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -24.91%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/02 closed at 0.97
    • Down from the day prior at 1.26 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK: 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.51%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.48%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.28
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.26 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, July, est. 100k (prior 80k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, July, est. 8.2% (prior 8.2%)
  • 8:30am: Avg Hourly Earnings M/m, July, est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: Avg Weekly Hours All Employees, July, est. 34.5 (prior 34.5)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing, July, est. 52.0 (prior 52.1)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House is out for Aug. recess. Senate may be in session
    • NASA announces winners for the next round of funding to develop spacecraft capable of carrying astronauts, 9am
    • FCC holds an open meeting on cable television technical and operational requirements and the use of microwave for wireless broadcasts, 10:30am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • July gain in payrolls probably failed to reduce U.S. unemployment
  • Knight said to open books to suitors as loss pressure grows
  • Knight losses ignite call for stronger SEC trading oversight
  • Citigroup is said to join firms refraining from Knight trading
  • Some ETF spreads widen as Knight is fighting to survive
  • Joyce faces Knight extinction after computers wipe out profit
  • NYSE 2Q earnings drop 20%, beating est.
  • Fidelity said to plan jump into ETF business with active funds
  • CF Industries to buy Viterra’s interests in CFL for C$915m
  • BofA says Libor probe prompts subpoenas over rate submissions
  • ECB-politicians’ crisis bargain emerges after 2 1/2 yrs
  • Toyota 1Q profit beats est., increases sales forecast
  • SAP will pay at least $306m to Oracle in a copyright- infringement lawsuit
  • American Express may be forced to pay refunds amid CFPB review
  • Morgan Stanley should cut fixed-income unit by half, ISI Says
  • BHP to take $3.3b in charges on shale, nickel assets
  • Nomura ordered to improve business by FSA on insider leaks

EARNINGS:

    • Alliant Energy (LNT) 6am, $0.47
    • Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) 6am, $0.16
    • Pason Systems (PSI CN) 6am, C$0.18
    • Immunogen (IMGN) 6:30am, $(0.30)
    • Sirona Dental Systems (SIRO) 6:30am, $0.77
    • WellCare Health Plans (WCG) 6:30am, $1.21
    • Buckeye Partners (BPL) 7am, $0.64
    • Brookfield Office Properties (BPO CN) 7am, $0.26
    • Gartner (IT) 7am, $0.41
    • ITT (ITT) 7am, $0.37
    • Procter & Gamble (PG) 7am, $0.77
    • Viacom (VIAB) 7am, $1.00
    • Exelis (XLS) 7am, $0.48
    • Health Net (HNT) 8am, $0.67
    • RBC Bearings (ROLL) 8am, $0.61
    • TELUS (T CN) 8am, C$1.00
    • Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) 8:02am, $0.45
    • United States Cellular (USM) 8:03am, $0.72
    • PNM Resources (PNM) 8:30am, $0.30
    • SNC-Lavalin Group (SNC CN) 9:10am, C$0.61
    • Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust (MRT-U CN) 4pm, C$0.34
    • UIL Holdings (UIL) 4:10pm, $0.33
    • WGL Holdings (WGL) 5pm, $0.01
    • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) 5:15pm, $1,777 (possible)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Bull Market in Crops Extends With Spreading Drought: Commodities
  • Israel Finds $240 Billion Gas Hoard Stranded by Politics: Energy
  • Natural Gas Matches Coal as Top U.S. Power Fuel: BGOV Barometer
  • Oil Rises From Three-Week Low on Forecasts U.S. Hiring Increased
  • Corn Swings Between Gains, Declines on Drought, Ethanol Usage
  • Sugar Seen Falling as Brazil Harvest May Accelerate; Cocoa Gains
  • Gold Cuts Weekly Drop in London as Price Slump Spurs Purchases
  • Copper Seen Rising as Employment Report May Show Stronger Hiring
  • Gold Imports by China From Hong Kong Decline for Second Month
  • India’s Power Crisis May Signal Copper Demand: Chart of the Day
  • Coal Rally Seen as China’s Cuts Dwarf Australia: Energy Markets
  • China to Pay Higher Prices for Soybeans on Drought, USDA Says
  • Natural Gas Extends Biggest Decline in Three Years on Stockpiles
  • Japan Shifts to Brazilian Corn From U.S. as Prices Reach Record
  • Brazil Coffee Growers Harvest 70% of Crop as Dry Weather Helps
  • Drought Assistance for Livestock Producers Passed by U.S. House

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


USD – we got longer yesterday (9 LONGS vs 6 at start of the day) but will not overstay my welcome on any cheerleading market open; will watch USD Index as my leading indicator; its down as we type, but as long as it holds $82.35, the Dollar up, deflation of stocks/commodities to lower highs on bounces will continue to be on.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – IBEX was +2% into Draghi, dropped 7% intraday (not a typo) on Draghi, then rallies “off the lows” +1.8% this morning – add all that up and you get the point – this is a complete gong show. Q308 didn’t see country indices whip like that; it’s not the same; it’s much more globally interconnected this time - and expectations for bailouts are a lot higher.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – Asian stocks continue to move independent of these Western media stories; Nikkei and KOSPI dropped another -1.1% last night (both remain in Bearish Formations) and the Nikkei is down -16.6% now since March. That’s a lot – so you’ll see the central planning begging move to the BOJ now.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team