UA: Zero to 30 in 2 Weeks

By the end of this past weekend, my sense is that sell-throughs on the new Under Armour Cross Trainers ticked up by 200-300bp from the 6-10% sell through rates we initially saw earlier in the week. While these are not 'knock-out' numbers (remember that UA's cleat launch was 20-30% sell through), they remain very respectable.

But if looked at on a very narrow 2-week market share view, UA has grown the cross training market by 19%, and has taken 30% of that segment out of the gate. Nike's share went from 56% to 36% and Reebok went from over 5% to about 1%. While not sustainable given that product supplies are likely to dwindle throughout the summer, this is no doubt, a number being flashed around Baltimore these days.

The "Proto Evade" at a $79.99 price point is the lead dog of the cross trainer line. The low cut styles are doing very well, followed by the mid-cuts. The higher cut styles (and highest price point at $100) are nowhere near as successful.

One consideration is that week one numbers for any major product launch tend to be buoyed by both pre-sells and in-house employee promotions. All of the majors - Sports Authority, Hibbett's, Dick's, and Finish Line did a solid job here.

Overall, the attitude at retail across the US is upbeat regarding the launch. Interestingly, more than one person we spoke with used the following terminology regarding the launch; "The launch was not Jordan-esque, but it more than satisfied expectations". Sounds like this has been spoon fed as the standard line...

Keep an eye on the UA investor day next Thursday in Baltimore. I can't imagine anything but solid news/spin will come of it. As it relates to footwear, my bet is that the Tech Running initiative for Spring '09 gets some solid bandwidth. Keep in mind that this is a category that is perhaps the most competitive in all of footwear, and also one that is farthest from UA's core competency. We're even seeing brands like K-Swiss, the perennial tennis brand, get into running next Spring, as well as a more meaningful push by Asics. It'll be interesting to hear how UA will keep market spending under control as this initiative launches.

Chart below shows 2 week yy change in Cross Training market share. Courtesy of NPD Fashionworld.

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