TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 2, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or -0.88% downside to 1363 and 0.79% upside to 1386.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/01 NYSE -779
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of -528
- VOLUME: on 08/01 NYSE 1025.21
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 15.46%
- VIX: as of 08/01 was at 18.96
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.16%
- Year-to-date decrease of -18.97%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/01 closed at 1.26
- Up from the day prior at 0.97
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.52%
- Unchanged from prior day’s trading
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.29
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.30
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: Bank of England rate decision
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, July, (prior -9.4%)
- 7:45am: ECB rate decision
- 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Aug. (prior 47)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, July 28, est. 370k (prior 353k)
- 8:30am: Continuing Claims, July 21, est. 3.29m (prior 3.29m)
- 9:45am: ISM New York, July (prior 49.7)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 29 (prior -38.5)
- 10am: Factory Orders, June, est. 0.5% (prior 0.7%)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
- N/A: ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/y, July (prior 0.2%)
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House meets at 10am; Senate in session
- Federal Energy Regulatory Commission hosts regulators from 11
- Asia-Pacific nations for discussion on grid reliability, renewable sources of energy and market regulation, 8:30am
- House Financial Services subcommittee on domestic monetary policy will hold a hearing to examine parallel currencies and the emergence of alternative forms of money, 10am
- Senate Banking subcommittee on securities, insurance and investment on “remaining challenges” in the tri-party repo market, 9am
- House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing on “IRS: Enforcing ObamaCare’s New Rules and Taxes”
- House Energy and Commerce Committee panel hearing on difference for energy development on federal land compared with private property production, 9am
- House Energy and Power subcommittee holds forum on the Clean Air Act, 2pm
- Interior Department Acting Inspector General Mary Kendall testifies about review of 2010 offshore drilling moratorium, compliance with subpoenas at House Natural Resources Committee, 10am
- House transportation committee will hold a hearing to look at contracting out food service on Amtrak, 10am
- Renewable Fuels Association, Growth Energy hold briefing to discuss drought ethanol production, 12pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- ECB President Draghi risks market wrath as pressure for ECB action grows
- Retailers report sales data for July
- Knight revenue hit could be $170m after tech issues affected mkt-making unit, JPMorgan says
- California says tax rev. "at risk" from Facebook’s price drop
- San Bernardino, Calif., files for bankruptcy protection
- Coca-Cola said to explore bid for F&N’s beverage business
- Kinross Gold fires CEO Tye Burt, replacing him with Rollinson
- Yahoo sued after disclosure of 450k user mames, passwords stolen
- Apple to seek sanctions for Samsung release in patent trial
- Sony cuts profit forecast on slowing demand, stronger yen
- Sharp widens FY net loss forecast to 250b yen, to cut 5k jobs this FY
- Halozyme immune deficiency drug rejected by FDA as clinical trials halted
- Murdoch’s A$2b TV bid cleared by Australian regulator
- Eloqua raises $92m, pricing software IPO at top of range
- Madoff Trustee sues N.Y. Attorney General to stop Merkin accord
EARNINGS:
- Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.53
- Cigna (CI) 6am, $1.42
- Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG) 6am, $0.09
- Quanta Services (PWR) 6am, $0.32
- Time Warner Cable (TWC) 6am, $1.38
- Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30am, $0.36
- Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) 6:33am, $0.67
- Teradata (TDC) 6:55am, $0.65
- Cardinal Health (CAH) 7am, $0.72
- Duke Energy (DUK) 7am, $0.97
- Enbridge (ENB CN) 7am, $0.38
- Henry Schein (HSIC) 7am, $1.10
- Lear (LEA) 7am, $1.29
- Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI) 7am, $0.87
- Xcel Energy (XEL) 7am, $0.36
- Xylem/NY (XYL) 7am, $0.49
- Teva (TEVA) 7am, $1.28
- MGIC Investment (MTG) 7am, $0.55
- Plains Exploration & Production Co (PXP) 7am, $0.64
- Beam (BEAM) 7:01am, $0.54
- DIRECTV (DTV) 7:30am, $1.14; Preview
- General Motors Co (GM) 7:30am, $0.75; Preview
- Parker Hannifin (PH) 7:30am, $1.91
- SCANA (SCG) 7:30am, $0.49
- Sealed Air (SEE) 7:30am, $0.35
- TECO Energy (TE) 7:30am, $0.35
- Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) 7:35am, $(0.28)
- Ameren (AEE) 7:42am, $0.62
- Apache (APA) 8am, $2.53
- Kellogg Co (K) 8am, $0.84
- Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) 8am, $1.05
- Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) 8am, $0.40
- Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX CN) 8am, $0.98
- CenterPoint Energy (CNP) 8:15am, $0.25
- Clorox (CLX) 8:30am, $1.27; Preview
- Denbury Resources (DNR) 8:30am, $0.33
- Rowan Cos Plc (RDC) 8:30am, $0.49
- Sempra Energy (SRE) 9am, $0.82
- Great-West Lifeco (GWO CN) 10:50am, C$0.52
- Inter Pipeline Fund (IPLu CN) 11:20am, C$0.25
- IGM Financial (IGM CN) 12:13pm, C$0.75
- American International Group (AIG) 4pm, $0.60
- Kraft Foods (KFT) 4pm, $0.66
- SBA Communications (SBAC) 4pm, $(0.16)
- Southwestern Energy Co (SWN) 4pm, $0.26
- American Capital Agency (AGNC) 4:01pm, $1.26
- CBS (CBS) 4:01pm, $0.59
- Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) 4:01pm, $0.10
- Pitney Bowes (PBI) 4:01pm, $0.49
- Sunoco (SUN) 4:01pm, $0.52
- Molycorp (MCP) 4:01pm, $0.08
- LinkedIn (LNKD) 4:02pm, $0.16
- Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:05pm, $0.12
- Fluor (FLR) 4:05pm, $0.92
- PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05pm, $0.49
- SandRidge Energy (SD) 4:05pm, $0.01
- ON Semiconductor (ONNN) 4:05pm, $0.14
- Rovi (ROVI) 4:05pm, $0.36
- Apartment Investment & Management Co (AIV) 4:15pm, $0.41
- Microchip Technology (MCHP) 4:15pm, $0.48
- Public Storage (PSA) 5:03pm, $1.51
- Agrium (AGU CN) Post-Mkt, $5.45
- Liberty Global (LBTYA) Post-Mkt, $0.16
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
GOLD – all that glitters is not what the Fed’s groupies were begging for yesterday; no drugs = Dollar up, gold down. The Correlation Risk on that relationship is running at -.7--.8; so no surprise there. TREND and TAIL resistance for Gold remain overhead at 1624 and 1679.
- Drought Added to Fedorov Tasks as Russia Joins WTO: Commodities
- London Overtakes New York as Brent Oil Beats WTI: Energy Markets
- Iran Loses $133 Million a Day on Embargo as Oil Buoys Obama
- China Set to Cut Corn Imports as Drought Spurs Record Price
- Oil Rises a Second Day as U.S. Inventories Decline, ECB Meets
- Gold Climbs for First Time in Four Days as Korea Buys, ECB Meets
- Grains Drop as U.S. Rains May Ease Drought and EU Harvests Crops
- Copper Swings Between Advances, Declines Amid ECB Speculation
- Coffee Rises in London as Supplies May Be Limited; Sugar Falls
- Mitsubishi, Mitsui Profits Slide on Iron Ore, Coal Price Slump
- South Korea Raises Gold Reserves Third Time Since June Last Year
- South Korea May Stockpile Grains Overseas to Stabilize Costs
- Monsanto Wins $1 Billion Patent-Infringement Verdict From DuPont
- Factory Slowdown Means China Silver Need Drops: Chart of the Day
- Looming Drought in India Risks Sugar Exports as Prices Rally
- Cocoa Butter Ratios Said to Climb as Processors Use Stockpiles
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – 1st stock market to back off its drug lord squeeze is the most unhealthy one; watching the IBEX and the Euro very closely here as they both back off TRADE lines of 6726 and $1.23 resistance; stealth signals that Draghi’s bluff will have big impact, if in fact he’s bluffing (immediate-term downside in the Eurostoxx50 of 3.5% if he is).
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – once we get through the whatever part from Draghi this morning, the drug addicts are going to have a hard time convincing all of Asia that economic growth slowing wont slow faster w/ Brent Oil at $106; China straight back down last night (-14% since May); Japan down -16% since March; and KOSPI backs off TREND resistance again, hard.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team