THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 2, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or -0.88% downside to 1363 and 0.79% upside to 1386. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/01 NYSE -779
    • Down  versus the prior day’s trading of -528
  • VOLUME: on 08/01 NYSE 1025.21
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 15.46%
  • VIX:  as of 08/01 was at 18.96
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.16%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -18.97%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/01 closed at 1.26
    • Up from the day prior at 0.97

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK: 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.52%
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.29
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.30 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: Bank of England rate decision
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, July, (prior -9.4%)
  • 7:45am: ECB rate decision
  • 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Aug. (prior 47)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, July 28, est. 370k (prior 353k)
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, July 21, est. 3.29m (prior 3.29m)
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, July (prior 49.7)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 29 (prior -38.5)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, June, est. 0.5% (prior 0.7%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
  • N/A: ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/y, July (prior 0.2%) 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House meets at 10am; Senate in session
    • Federal Energy Regulatory Commission hosts regulators from 11
    • Asia-Pacific nations for discussion on grid reliability, renewable sources of energy and market regulation, 8:30am
    • House Financial Services subcommittee on domestic monetary policy will hold a hearing to examine parallel currencies and the emergence of alternative forms of money, 10am
    • Senate Banking subcommittee on securities, insurance and investment on “remaining challenges” in the tri-party repo market, 9am
    • House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing on “IRS: Enforcing ObamaCare’s New Rules and Taxes”
    • House Energy and Commerce Committee panel hearing on difference for energy development on federal land compared with private property production, 9am
    • House Energy and Power subcommittee holds forum on the Clean Air Act, 2pm
    • Interior Department Acting Inspector General Mary Kendall testifies about review of 2010 offshore drilling moratorium, compliance with subpoenas at House Natural Resources Committee, 10am
    • House transportation committee will hold a hearing to look at contracting out food service on Amtrak, 10am
    • Renewable Fuels Association, Growth Energy hold briefing to discuss drought ethanol production, 12pm

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • ECB President Draghi risks market wrath as pressure for ECB action grows
  • Retailers report sales data for July
  • Knight revenue hit could be $170m after tech issues affected mkt-making unit, JPMorgan says
  • California says tax rev. "at risk" from Facebook’s price drop
  • San Bernardino, Calif., files for bankruptcy protection
  • Coca-Cola said to explore bid for F&N’s beverage business
  • Kinross Gold fires CEO Tye Burt, replacing him with Rollinson
  • Yahoo sued after disclosure of 450k user mames, passwords stolen
  • Apple to seek sanctions for Samsung release in patent trial
  • Sony cuts profit forecast on slowing demand, stronger yen
  • Sharp widens FY net loss forecast to 250b yen, to cut 5k jobs this FY
  • Halozyme immune deficiency drug rejected by FDA as clinical trials halted
  • Murdoch’s A$2b TV bid cleared by Australian regulator
  • Eloqua raises $92m, pricing software IPO at top of range
  • Madoff Trustee sues N.Y. Attorney General to stop Merkin accord

EARNINGS:

    • Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.53
    • Cigna (CI) 6am, $1.42
    • Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG) 6am, $0.09
    • Quanta Services (PWR) 6am, $0.32
    • Time Warner Cable (TWC) 6am, $1.38
    • Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30am, $0.36
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) 6:33am, $0.67
    • Teradata (TDC) 6:55am, $0.65
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) 7am, $0.72
    • Duke Energy (DUK) 7am, $0.97
    • Enbridge (ENB CN) 7am, $0.38
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) 7am, $1.10
    • Lear (LEA) 7am, $1.29
    • Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI) 7am, $0.87
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) 7am, $0.36
    • Xylem/NY (XYL) 7am, $0.49
    • Teva (TEVA) 7am, $1.28
    • MGIC Investment (MTG) 7am, $0.55
    • Plains Exploration & Production Co (PXP) 7am, $0.64
    • Beam (BEAM) 7:01am, $0.54
    • DIRECTV (DTV) 7:30am, $1.14; Preview
    • General Motors Co (GM) 7:30am, $0.75; Preview
    • Parker Hannifin (PH) 7:30am, $1.91
    • SCANA (SCG) 7:30am, $0.49
    • Sealed Air (SEE) 7:30am, $0.35
    • TECO Energy (TE) 7:30am, $0.35
    • Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) 7:35am, $(0.28)
    • Ameren (AEE) 7:42am, $0.62
    • Apache (APA) 8am, $2.53
    • Kellogg Co (K) 8am, $0.84
    • Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) 8am, $1.05
    • Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) 8am, $0.40
    • Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX CN) 8am, $0.98
    • CenterPoint Energy (CNP) 8:15am, $0.25
    • Clorox (CLX) 8:30am, $1.27; Preview
    • Denbury Resources (DNR) 8:30am, $0.33
    • Rowan Cos Plc (RDC) 8:30am, $0.49
    • Sempra Energy (SRE) 9am, $0.82
    • Great-West Lifeco (GWO CN) 10:50am, C$0.52
    • Inter Pipeline Fund (IPLu CN) 11:20am, C$0.25
    • IGM Financial (IGM CN) 12:13pm, C$0.75
    • American International Group (AIG) 4pm, $0.60
    • Kraft Foods (KFT) 4pm, $0.66
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4pm, $(0.16)
    • Southwestern Energy Co (SWN) 4pm, $0.26
    • American Capital Agency (AGNC) 4:01pm, $1.26
    • CBS (CBS) 4:01pm, $0.59
    • Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) 4:01pm, $0.10
    • Pitney Bowes (PBI) 4:01pm, $0.49
    • Sunoco (SUN) 4:01pm, $0.52
    • Molycorp (MCP) 4:01pm, $0.08
    • LinkedIn (LNKD) 4:02pm, $0.16
    • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:05pm, $0.12
    • Fluor (FLR) 4:05pm, $0.92
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05pm, $0.49
    • SandRidge Energy (SD) 4:05pm, $0.01
    • ON Semiconductor (ONNN) 4:05pm, $0.14
    • Rovi (ROVI) 4:05pm, $0.36
    • Apartment Investment & Management Co (AIV) 4:15pm, $0.41
    • Microchip Technology (MCHP) 4:15pm, $0.48
    • Public Storage (PSA) 5:03pm, $1.51
    • Agrium (AGU CN) Post-Mkt, $5.45
    • Liberty Global (LBTYA) Post-Mkt, $0.16

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

GOLD – all that glitters is not what the Fed’s groupies were begging for yesterday; no drugs = Dollar up, gold down. The Correlation Risk on that relationship is running at -.7--.8; so no surprise there. TREND and TAIL resistance for Gold remain overhead at 1624 and 1679. 

  • Drought Added to Fedorov Tasks as Russia Joins WTO: Commodities
  • London Overtakes New York as Brent Oil Beats WTI: Energy Markets
  • Iran Loses $133 Million a Day on Embargo as Oil Buoys Obama
  • China Set to Cut Corn Imports as Drought Spurs Record Price
  • Oil Rises a Second Day as U.S. Inventories Decline, ECB Meets
  • Gold Climbs for First Time in Four Days as Korea Buys, ECB Meets
  • Grains Drop as U.S. Rains May Ease Drought and EU Harvests Crops
  • Copper Swings Between Advances, Declines Amid ECB Speculation
  • Coffee Rises in London as Supplies May Be Limited; Sugar Falls
  • Mitsubishi, Mitsui Profits Slide on Iron Ore, Coal Price Slump
  • South Korea Raises Gold Reserves Third Time Since June Last Year
  • South Korea May Stockpile Grains Overseas to Stabilize Costs
  • Monsanto Wins $1 Billion Patent-Infringement Verdict From DuPont
  • Factory Slowdown Means China Silver Need Drops: Chart of the Day
  • Looming Drought in India Risks Sugar Exports as Prices Rally
  • Cocoa Butter Ratios Said to Climb as Processors Use Stockpiles

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CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – 1st stock market to back off its drug lord squeeze is the most unhealthy one; watching the IBEX and the Euro very closely here as they both back off TRADE lines of 6726 and $1.23 resistance; stealth signals that Draghi’s bluff will have big impact, if in fact he’s bluffing (immediate-term downside in the Eurostoxx50 of 3.5% if he is).

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – once we get through the whatever part from Draghi this morning, the drug addicts are going to have a hard time convincing all of Asia that economic growth slowing wont slow faster w/ Brent Oil at $106; China straight back down last night (-14% since May); Japan down -16% since March; and KOSPI backs off TREND resistance again, hard.

 

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MIDDLE EAST

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The Hedgeye Macro Team