In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance
OVERALL
- BETTER: Performance in the owned portfolio was stronger than expected, benefiting from renovated assets and strong flow through. Less international and, especially, European exposure was evident. Announcement of the buyback also lent confidence to management's positive outlook.
GROUP PACE
- SAME: The remainder of 2012 is up 5% with a little less than half coming from rate.
- PREVIOUSLY:"Our group pace for 2012 is currently up in the mid single-digit range with one-third of that increase due to increase in rate."
INTERNATIONAL OPENINGS
- SAME: Still on track to open 20 hotels in 2012
- PREVIOUSLY:"We expect to open more than 20 hotels this year, including our first select service hotels outside of the US."
LODGEWORKS
- SAME: They still expect Lodgeworks to generate roughly $40MM of EBITDA in 2012 and produce cash on cash returns of 10% in the future
- PREVIOUSLY: "The former LodgeWorks Hotels are doing very well, on track to exceed our original forecast and showing strong RevPAR and market share performance. We expected that we would generate roughly $40 million of EBITDA this year; we're on track to do that."
MEXICO CITY PERFORMANCE:
- BETTER: Mexico City is performing ahead of expectations with YTD RevPAR tracking up 15% YoY and they expect to trend in that range for the balance of the year. Maintained that the property should do better than $8-10MM of EBITDA in 2012.
- PREVIOUSLY: "The market RevPAR progression expected this year is about 10% and our hotel [Hyatt Regency Mexico City] is up over 20% RevPAR was year-over-year through April. With respect to Mexico City, we expect this year to earn somewhere between $8 million and $10 million in EBITDA from the property."
PIPELINE:
- BETTER: At June 30th, Hyatt has 175 signed contracts with 39,000 rooms. Roughly 75% of the pipeline is located outside of NA.
- PREVIOUSLY: "We have signed contracts for more than 170 hotels representing over 38,000 rooms. On a hotel basis it's about 37% of our hotel base. On a rooms basis it's about 30% of our room base. Over a third of those properties are under construction and about 80% of the contracts for these hotels and the pipeline require little or no capital from us. About 70% of them are outside of North America and about 50% of the total are in China and in India."
SG&A GUIDANCE:
- LITTLE BETTER: Adjusted SG&A only increased 6% vs. 13% (excluding special items) in 1Q. However, 2Q included a $2MM bad debt reversal benefit, but even so, the increase would have been 9% YoY. The $320MM of guidance implies a 13% YoY increase on 2011 clean #'s.
- PREVIOUSLY: "We expect the increase in second quarter adjusted SG&A to be similar to the increase we saw in the first quarter, excluding the special items. For the full-year, we expect total adjusted SG&A to increase in the low teen's percentage range versus 2011."
FORWARD BOOKINGS:
- SAME: Forward bookings for 2013 progressed to 50-55%. They mentioned that they may be acting less aggressive in shoring up forward bookings given the strength in business transient and expectations for rising ADRs.
- PREVIOUSLY: "I would say as I think about the bookings, for 2013 and 2014 continue to grow. 2013, I think we probably have about 45% of the business on our books. And 2014, we probably have 30% of the business on our books. And, rates are picking up, I mean, rates are up 2%, when you compare this for the bookings this time last year. So I think overall trends are looking decent."