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Cautious on domestic REVPAR

  • REVPAR growth may have peaked in June 2012.  Based on our model, which projects sequential REVPAR growth on a seasonally-adjusted dollar basis, the 2nd half of 2012 will show a sequential slowdown in YoY REVPAR growth.
  • This model does not take into account macroeconomic issues and with the typical lodging lag, our estimates could prove aggressive
  • Obviously, REITs have the most leverage but among the hotel brand companies, the more cyclically-sensitive lodgers (more hotel ownership) like Starwood and Hyatt are more exposed than a Marriott

CHART DE LA NUIT:  YELLOW LIGHT ON US REVPAR GROWTH - UUP