TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 31, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or -1.61% downside to 1363 and 0.92% upside to 1398.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/30 NYSE -88
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of 2012
- VOLUME: on 07/30 NYSE 658.58
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -27.85%
- VIX: as of 07/30 was at 18.03
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 7.96%
- Year-to-date decrease of -22.95%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/30 closed at 1.00
- Down from the day prior at 1.26
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
10yr – both the US and German 10yr fall right back after testing immediate-term TRADE resistance (yields); immediate-term TRADE resistance for the UST 10yr = 1.59%, so we bought back our long-bond TLT position on that yesterday, taking our Fixed Income asset allocation back up to 21%; the bond market has been nailing #GrowthSlowing since March.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.49%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.50%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.27
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.28
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
- 8:30am: Annual Revisions: Personal Income and Spending
- 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, 2Q, est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
- 8:30am: Personal Income, June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%)
- 8:30am: Personal Spending, June, est. 0.1% (prior 0.0%)
- 8:30am: PCE Deflator M/m, June, est. 0.0% (prior -0.2%)
- 8:30am: PCE Core M/m, June, est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%)
- 9am: S&P/CS 20 City M/m, May, est. 0.4% (prior 0.7%)
- 9am: S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, May, est. 137.55 (prior 135.8)
- 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, July, est. 52.4 (prior 52.9)
- 10am: Consumer Confidence, July, est. 61.5 (prior 62)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes due July 31, 2018-May 15, 2020
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-wk bills
- 2pm: Fed will release tentative outright Treasury operation schedule
- 4:30pm: API Inventories
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House Energy and Commerce subcommittee holds forum to discuss state and federal cooperation on the Clean Air Act, 2pm
- House Oversight Committee hearing on federal privacy and data security, 10am
- Senate Committee on Commerce, Science Transportation markup to extend 2006 law to stop spam, spyware, fraud across borders; nomination of Michael Huerta, to be FAA admin., 2:30am
- Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner speaks to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council on U.S, and world economies, 3pm
- David Cohen, Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, speaks at department’s public hearing on plans to propose rules on customer due diligence requirements for financial institutions, 9:30am
- Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee drafts its version of the annual defense spending bill, 10:30am
- Air Force holds press briefing at Pentagon on latest assessment of oxygen-deficiency symptoms that have affected pilots flying Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor, 3pm
- FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff discusses reliability of electric grid, EPA regulations, climate change in appearance at Platts Energy Podium, 1pm
- ITC hears evidence in a microprocessors patent-infringement case brought against Apple by Taiwan-based VIA Technologies, which is affiliated with HTC, 9am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Federal Open Markets Committee begins 2-day meeting
- Euro-area unemployment rate reaches record 11.2%
- Apple said to prepare iPhone redesign for Sept. 12 release
- Yahoo Interim CEO Ross Levinsohn departs after Marissa Mayer gets CEO job
- BP 2Q net loss $1.39b vs net income $5.72b Y/y
- Cantor placed on review for cut by Moody’s amid trading weakness
- Japan’s unexpected drop in unemployment helps sustain growth
- UBS, Deutsche Bank profits decline, missing ests.
- Panasonic 1Q net income 12.8b yen, analyst est. 9.2b yen
- Honda 1Q net 131.7b yen, est. 150.7b yen
- Manchester United seeks as much as $333m in U.S. IPO
- Sanofi’s Genzyme unit sued by Teva over worker-raiding claims
- RealD fell as much as 21% after missing ests. due to costs to supply theaters with new eyeglasses
- Humana cuts profit forecast as rising Medicare costs surprise
- Lehman raises $4.7b in 2Q toward creditor payments
- Boeing 787’s debris-spewing GE engine to be dismantled in probe
- Ex-UBS Officers “lied and cheated’ on muni bond deals, U.S. says
EARNINGS:
- Yandex (YNDX) 6am, $0.16
- Tyco (TYC) 6am, $0.93; Preview
- Aetna (AET) 6am, $1.25
- NiSource (NI) 6:30am, $0.20
- Harris (HRS) 6:30am, $1.41
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) 6:30am, $0.45
- Cobalt International Energy (CIE) 6:40am, $(0.09)
- Foster Wheeler (FWLT) 6:45am, $0.43
- Delphi Automotive (DLPH) 7am, $0.92
- Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7am, $0.50
- Pfizer (PFE) 7am, $0.54; Preview
- Dentsply International (XRAY) 7am, $0.56
- Coach (COH) 7am, $0.85
- TRW Automotive Holdings (TRW) 7am, $1.55
- Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 7am, $0.58
- Entergy (ETR) 7am, $1.41
- Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.70
- United States Steel (X) 7:05am, $0.49
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 7:06am, $2.51; Preview
- Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) 7:30am, $0.45
- Revlon (REV) 7:30am, $0.32
- Cummins (CMI) 7:30am, $2.28
- Valero Energy (VLO) 7:30am, $1.43; Preview
- HCP (HCP) 7:45am, $0.68
- Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) 8am, $0.05
- George Weston (WN CN) 8am, C$0.96
- Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) 8:05am, $1.01
- Ecolab (ECL) 8:25am, $0.72
- TransAlta (TA CN) 8:50am, C$(0.03)
- Toromont Industries (TIH CN) 11:13am, C$0.36
- Saputo (SAP CN) 11:58am, C$0.66
- Edison International (EIX) 4pm, $0.32
- WebMd (WBMD) 4pm, $0.123
- Electronic Arts (EA) 4:01pm, $(0.42)
- DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA) 4:01pm, $0.25
- Solar Capital (SLRC) 4:01pm, $0.58
- Axis Capital Holdings (AXS) 4:01pm, $0.93
- Life Technologies (LIFE) 4:01pm, $0.97
- BMC Software (BMC) 4:05pm, $0.75
- Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) 4:05pm, $(0.66)
- ONEOK (OKE) 4:05pm, $0.33
- ONEOK Partners (OKS) 4:05pm, $0.70
- Allstate (ALL) 4:05pm, $0.52
- QEP Resources (QEP) 4:05pm, $0.33
- Genworth Financial (GNW) 4:07pm, $0.18
- Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) 4:09pm, $0.56
- Kimco Realty (KIM) 4:09pm, $0.31
- Verisk Analytics (VRSK) 4:10pm, $0.47
- Frontier Communications (FTR) 4:11pm, $0.05
- RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR) 4:22pm, $2.48
- FMC (FMC) 4:30pm, $0.91
- Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) 4:30pm, $1.24
- BRE Properties (BRE) 4:30pm, $0.58
- DDR (DDR) 5pm, $0.25
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
GOLD – the #BailoutBulls are going for gold here into this week’s central planning events; TRADE resistance now support at $1606; long term-TAIL risk line up at $1679. Be careful what you beg for; another Qe will cut whatever is left of the US consumption growth phalanx to shreds.
- Most-Accurate Gold Forecasters Splitting After Rout: Commodities
- Oil Supplies Decline in Survey on Refining High: Energy Markets
- Grain Cargoes Seen Slowing Most in 19 Years on Drought: Freight
- Corn Climbs to Record as Futures Head for Best Month Since 1988
- Weak India Rains to Spur Record Cooking-Oil, Lentil Imports
- Rubber Demand in China to Contract 5% as Truck Sales Tumble
- Palm-Oil Shipments From Indonesia Set to Gain on Lower Duty
- WTI Crude May Slump to $83 Fibonacci Level: Technical Analysis
- Copper Rises as China Increases Spending on Railroad Network
- Gold Seen Extending Monthly Gain on Monetary Easing Stimulus
- Australia Wins as Buyers Shift to Wheat From Corn on Drought
- Rice Stockpiles in Japan Seen Declining, Boosting Prices
- Iron Ore Price Decline in China Seen by Arctic as Import Spur
- Gold-Backed Loans to Climb at Indonesian Banks: Islamic Finance
- Chinese Steelmakers Profit Tumbles 96% on Lower Demand, Prices
- Oil Rises, Set for First Monthly Gain in Three on Stimulus Talk
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – last day of the month, so why not throw some Chinese rumoring on top of the markup pile? Regardless, Chinese stocks make fresh new lows, down another -0.3% (down -14.5% since May); we do not think they cut rates w/ $106/barrel Brent Oil.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team