TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 30, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.87% downside to 1360 and 0.44% upside to 1392.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/27 NYSE 2012
- Up versus the prior day’s trading of 1406
- VOLUME: on 07/27 NYSE 912.81
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.66%
- VIX: as of 07/27 was at 16.70
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -4.73%
- Year-to-date decrease of -28.63%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/27 closed at 1.26
- Down from the day prior at 1.62
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.53%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.55%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.30
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.31
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 10:30 am: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, July, est. 2
- (prior 5.8)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes due Feb. 15, 2036- May 15, 2042
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 3-mo, 6-mo bills
- 4pm: Crop conditions
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- Defense Secretary Leon Panetta arrives in Israel as part of regional tour for meetings that may focus on Syria, Iran and defense cooperation
- Commerce Dept expected to set preliminary anti-dumping duties for Korean, Mexican clothes washers that U.S. producers say are sold in the U.S. for less than production costs
- NHTSA releases study on children left in locked cars
- Mitt Romney meets with with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, former President Lech Walesa, visits historical sites in Poland
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may be taking another look at cutting the interest rate the Fed pays on bank reserves to bring down S-T borrowing costs, spur slowing U.S. expansion.
- Apple’s $2.5b patent-infringement lawsuit against Samsung begins today in federal court in California
- GM says Chief Marketing Officer Joel Ewanick resigned because he didn’t “meet the company’s expectations of an employee”
- Berkshire Bank sues Barclays, Citigroup over alleged Libor fraud
- Bain said to be in talks for $1.6b Genpact stake
- 3 JPMorgan bankers are said to depart for Evercore, Centerview
- Apple talks with Twitter said to have ended without investment deal
- Boeing Dreamliner GE engine probed after jet spews debris
- “The Dark Knight Rises” led NA box office for 2nd weekend with $64.1m
- Cnooc-Nexen deal may spark U.S. scrutiny of Chinese control
- SEC freezes trader assets in probe of Cnooc’s Nexen purchase
- Ex-UBS executives go to trial in municipal bond bid-rigging case
- HSBC said 1H profit rose 10%, lifted by gains on asset sales
- Corn jumps to record amid worst drought in decades
- Euro-area July economic confidence falls to 87.9, est. 88.9
EARNINGS:
- Loews (L) 6am, $0.76
- CNA Financial (CNA) 6am, $0.56
- CIT Group (CIT) 6:30am, $(0.57)
- Roper Industries (ROP) 7am, $1.15
- Diebold (DBD) 8am, $0.59
- UDR (UDR) 8am, $0.33
- Arrow Electronics (ARW) 8am, $1.13
- Mercury General (MCY) 8:30am, $0.66
- Franklin Resources (BEN) 8:30am, $2.05
- Cirrus Logic (CRUS) 4pm, $0.21
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4pm, $0.58
- Hologic (HOLX) 4:01pm, $0.34
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC) 4:01pm, $0.77
- Fiserv (FISV) 4:01pm, $1.26
- Plum Creek Timber (PCL) 4:01pm, $0.18
- Seagate Technology (STX) 4:01pm, $2.43
- Dendreon (DNDN) 4:01pm, $(0.62)
- Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) 4:01pm, $0.42
- Flowserve (FLS) 4:02pm, $1.91
- PMC - Sierra (PMCS) 4:04pm, $0.08
- PartnerRe Ltd (PRE) 4:04pm, $1.98
- Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) 4:08pm, $0.30
- Herbalife (HLF) 4:10pm, $0.96
- Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) 4:31pm, $0.32
- Masco (MAS) 5pm, $0.11
- American Financial Group (AFG) 5:01pm, $0.79
- Eastman Chemical (EMN) 5:09pm, $1.30
- Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Post-Mkt, $0.75
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Hedge Funds Add Wagers in Longest Streak Since 2009: Commodities
- Gas Bullish Bets Advance to Highest in 29 Months: Energy Markets
- Tony Hayward Loads Trucks With Kurdish Oil Awaiting Pipe: Energy
- Corn Jumps to Record as Worst Drought in Decades Hurts U.S. Crop
- West Australia’s Grain Harvest Seen Dropping 40% on Weather
- Oil Falls for First Day in Five as European Confidence Worsens
- Sugar Gains on Speculation Indian Output Will Fall; Coffee Rises
- Copper Drops Before ECB, Federal Reserve Policy Makers Gather
- Gold Set to Decline in London as Dollar’s Rebound Curbs Demand
- Enbridge Failed Pipe Section to Undergo Lab Exam, U.S. Says
- Malaysia Said Planning to Boost Crude-Palm Tax-Free Export Quota
- Iron Ore Seen Extending Decline in October Amid China Slowdown
- CRB Index Seen Falling 11% on Island Pattern: Technical Analysis
- Green Mountain CEO Faces Percolating Issue of Who’s Boss: Retail
- Peet’s Seen Tempting Starbucks to Top Richest Java Bid: Real M&A
CURRENCIES
EURO – we re-shorted the Euro right at our immediate-term TRADE line of 1.23 resistance (vs USD) on Friday; the Euro backed off that line hard, and copper/gold just went red too. Will Bernanke go Qe3 at SPX 1385? Doubt it, and so do Euro/Gold/Copper; stay tuned though – this man’s ideology trumps most things I can reconcile in my head.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – instead of -33% from the March high (Thursday morning pre Draghi), the IBEX is now -25%, hooray; economic growth however continues to surprise on the downside (Spain GDP miss again at -1% y/y for Q2) and the central plan continues to do more of what is slowing growth (debt). Watching Spain’s intermediate-term TREND line of 6872 very closely.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – evidently the Chinese agree with me on that; the Shanghai Comp couldn’t care less about what American and/or European is getting their latest 48hr Viagra squeeze, trading down another -0.9% to fresh YTD lows (China down -14.2% since May as food/energy prices ripping on central planning will only slow Asian consumption growth further).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team