THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 30, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.87% downside to 1360 and 0.44% upside to 1392. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/27 NYSE 2012
    • Up versus the prior day’s trading of 1406
  • VOLUME: on 07/27 NYSE 912.81
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.66%
  • VIX:  as of 07/27 was at 16.70
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -4.73%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -28.63%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/27 closed at 1.26
    • Down from the day prior at 1.62 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.53%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.55%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.30
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.31 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10:30 am: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, July, est. 2
  • (prior 5.8)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes due Feb. 15, 2036- May 15, 2042
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 3-mo, 6-mo bills
  • 4pm: Crop conditions 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • Defense Secretary Leon Panetta arrives in Israel as part of regional tour for meetings that may focus on Syria, Iran and defense cooperation
    • Commerce Dept expected to set preliminary anti-dumping duties for Korean, Mexican clothes washers that U.S. producers say are sold in the U.S. for less than production costs
    • NHTSA releases study on children left in locked cars
    • Mitt Romney meets with with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, former President Lech Walesa, visits historical sites in Poland 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may be taking another look at cutting the interest rate the Fed pays on bank reserves to bring down S-T borrowing costs, spur slowing U.S. expansion.
  • Apple’s $2.5b patent-infringement lawsuit against Samsung begins today in federal court in California
  • GM says Chief Marketing Officer Joel Ewanick resigned because he didn’t “meet the company’s expectations of an employee”
  • Berkshire Bank sues Barclays, Citigroup over alleged Libor fraud
  • Bain said to be in talks for $1.6b Genpact stake
  • 3 JPMorgan bankers are said to depart for Evercore, Centerview
  • Apple talks with Twitter said to have ended without investment deal
  • Boeing Dreamliner GE engine probed after jet spews debris
  • “The Dark Knight Rises” led NA box office for 2nd weekend with $64.1m
  • Cnooc-Nexen deal may spark U.S. scrutiny of Chinese control
  • SEC freezes trader assets in probe of Cnooc’s Nexen purchase
  • Ex-UBS executives go to trial in municipal bond bid-rigging case
  • HSBC said 1H profit rose 10%, lifted by gains on asset sales
  • Corn jumps to record amid worst drought in decades
  • Euro-area July economic confidence falls to 87.9, est. 88.9

EARNINGS:

    • Loews (L) 6am, $0.76
    • CNA Financial (CNA) 6am, $0.56
    • CIT Group (CIT) 6:30am, $(0.57)
    • Roper Industries (ROP) 7am, $1.15
    • Diebold (DBD) 8am, $0.59
    • UDR (UDR) 8am, $0.33
    • Arrow Electronics (ARW) 8am, $1.13
    • Mercury General (MCY) 8:30am, $0.66
    • Franklin Resources (BEN) 8:30am, $2.05
    • Cirrus Logic (CRUS) 4pm, $0.21
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4pm, $0.58
    • Hologic (HOLX) 4:01pm, $0.34
    • Anadarko Petroleum (APC) 4:01pm, $0.77
    • Fiserv (FISV) 4:01pm, $1.26
    • Plum Creek Timber (PCL) 4:01pm, $0.18
    • Seagate Technology (STX) 4:01pm, $2.43
    • Dendreon (DNDN) 4:01pm, $(0.62)
    • Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) 4:01pm, $0.42
    • Flowserve (FLS) 4:02pm, $1.91
    • PMC - Sierra (PMCS) 4:04pm, $0.08
    • PartnerRe Ltd (PRE) 4:04pm, $1.98
    • Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) 4:08pm, $0.30
    • Herbalife (HLF) 4:10pm, $0.96
    • Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) 4:31pm, $0.32
    • Masco (MAS) 5pm, $0.11
    • American Financial Group (AFG) 5:01pm, $0.79
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) 5:09pm, $1.30
    • Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Post-Mkt, $0.75

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Hedge Funds Add Wagers in Longest Streak Since 2009: Commodities
  • Gas Bullish Bets Advance to Highest in 29 Months: Energy Markets
  • Tony Hayward Loads Trucks With Kurdish Oil Awaiting Pipe: Energy
  • Corn Jumps to Record as Worst Drought in Decades Hurts U.S. Crop
  • West Australia’s Grain Harvest Seen Dropping 40% on Weather
  • Oil Falls for First Day in Five as European Confidence Worsens
  • Sugar Gains on Speculation Indian Output Will Fall; Coffee Rises
  • Copper Drops Before ECB, Federal Reserve Policy Makers Gather
  • Gold Set to Decline in London as Dollar’s Rebound Curbs Demand
  • Enbridge Failed Pipe Section to Undergo Lab Exam, U.S. Says
  • Malaysia Said Planning to Boost Crude-Palm Tax-Free Export Quota
  • Iron Ore Seen Extending Decline in October Amid China Slowdown
  • CRB Index Seen Falling 11% on Island Pattern: Technical Analysis
  • Green Mountain CEO Faces Percolating Issue of Who’s Boss: Retail
  • Peet’s Seen Tempting Starbucks to Top Richest Java Bid: Real M&A 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


EURO – we re-shorted the Euro right at our immediate-term TRADE line of 1.23 resistance (vs USD) on Friday; the Euro backed off that line hard, and copper/gold just went red too. Will Bernanke go Qe3 at SPX 1385? Doubt it, and so do Euro/Gold/Copper; stay tuned though – this man’s ideology trumps most things I can reconcile in my head.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – instead of -33% from the March high (Thursday morning pre Draghi), the IBEX is now -25%, hooray; economic growth however continues to surprise on the downside (Spain GDP miss again at -1% y/y for Q2) and the central plan continues to do more of what is slowing growth (debt). Watching Spain’s intermediate-term TREND line of 6872 very closely.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – evidently the Chinese agree with me on that; the Shanghai Comp couldn’t care less about what American and/or European is getting their latest 48hr Viagra squeeze, trading down another -0.9% to fresh YTD lows (China down -14.2% since May as food/energy prices ripping on central planning will only slow Asian consumption growth further).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


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