TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 27, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.81% downside to 1349 and 0.44% upside to 1366.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/26 NYSE 1406
- Up versus the prior day’s trading of 226
- VOLUME: on 07/26 NYSE 897.88
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 14.60%
- VIX: as of 07/26 was at 17.53
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -9.36%
- Year-to-date decrease of -25.09%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/26 closed at 1.62
- Up from the day prior at 1.23
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.46%
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.44%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.23
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.21
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: GDP (Q/q), 2Q A, est. 1.4% (prior 1.9%)
- 8:30am: Personal Consumption, 2Q A, est. 1.3% (prior 2.5%)
- 8:30am: GDP Price Index, 2Q A, est. 1.5% (prior 2%)
- 8:30am: Core PCE (Q/q), 2Q A, est. 1.8% (prior 2.3%)
- 9:55am: U. Michigan Confidence, July final, est. 72.0 (prior 72)
- 11am: Fed to sell $7.0b-$8.0b notes due 5/15/15-9/30/15
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT:
- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks to intl AIDS conference at 3:35pm; former President Bill Clinton at 4:25pm
- Commerce Department announces preliminary anti-dumping duties on Chinese and Vietnamese-made wind towers
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. GDP probably rose at 1.4% annual rate in 2Q, slowest pace in a year
- Samsung increases lead over Apple in global smartphone mkt
- Facebook shrs fall amid concerns about pace of growth
- Universal in talks to sell most of Parlophone to BMG
- Whole Foods Market reviewing health claims about DHA
- Cnooc hires U.S. lobbyists to avoid Unocal-style problems with Nexen acquisition
- Federal Reserve Bank of NY urged federal judge to dismiss Starr International’s lawsuit over govt. bailout of AIG
- Ecuadorian judge ruled Chevron must pay $19b in environmental damages from ops in the country, higher than $18.2b original ruling: DJ
- Amarin won FDA approval for first drug, Vascepa, to combat high levels of blood fat that lead to stroke, heart attack
- Booz Allen Hamilton said to have cut size, rate on term loan B it’s seeking to pay dividend
- Prologis may sell ~$800m of U.S. properties by end of 2012, co-CEO Hamid Moghadam told Bloomberg News
- Spanish unemployment rises to highest in democratic history
- Italy borrowing costs fall at 6-month bill auction
- U.S. Congress probably will delay action on legislation to ease trade relations with Russia until after country joins WTO next month
- Burberry to buy out license rights of Inter Parfums for $220m
- Fed, ECB Meet; U.S. Jobs; Olympics: Week Ahead
EARNINGS:
- Calpine (CPN) 6am, $0.01
- Colfax (CFX) 6am, $0.36
- Helmerich & Payne (HP) 6am, $1.15
- TMX Group (X CN) 6am, C$0.73
- LyondellBasell (LYB) 6am, $1.40
- Prosperity Bancshares (PB) 6:02am, $0.77
- Magellan Health Services (MGLN) 6:30am, $0.91
- WABCO Holdings (WBC) 6:30am, $1.17
- Coventry Health Care (CVH) 6:30am, $0.64
- Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) 6:30am, $0.45; Preview
- Barnes Group (B) 6:30am, $0.48
- Aon (AON) 6:30am, $1.02
- DTE Energy Co (DTE) 7am, $0.70
- LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT) 7am, $0.81
- Merck (MRK) 7am, $1.01; Preview
- Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) 7am, $0.12
- DR Horton (DHI) 7am, $0.19; Preview
- Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) 7am, $0.23
- Legg Mason (LM) 7am, $0.03
- OneBeacon Insurance Group Ltd (OB) 7am, $0.26
- Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) 7am, $1.64
- Alliance Holdings GP (AHGP) 7am, $0.84
- NV Energy (NVE) 7am, $0.18
- Celestica (CLS CN) 7am, $0.24
- HMS Holdings (HMSY) 7:30am, $0.21
- First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG) 7:30am, $0.18
- American Axle (AXL) 7:30am, $0.50
- TransForce (TFI CN) 7:30am, C$0.37
- Arch Coal (ACI) 7:45am, $(0.18)
- Cameco (CCO CN) 8am, $0.21
- KKR (KKR) 8am, $0.16
- Moog (MOG/A) 8am, $0.85
- Atco Ltd/Canada (ACO/X CN) 8:07am, C$1.36
- Canadian Utilities Ltd (CU CN) 8:16am, C$0.86
- Chevron (CVX) 8:30am, $3.23
- TransCanada (TRP CN) 8:45am, C$0.48
- NuStar Energy (NS) 8:45am, $0.25
- NuStar GP Holdings LLC (NSH) 8:45am, $0.35
- Forum Energy Technologies (FET) Pre-Mkt, $0.47
- Highwoods Properties (HIW) Post-Mkt, $0.69
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
CURRENCIES
USD – will Bernanke drive home the 1-2 #BailoutBull punch next week? I don’t know; neither does the Dollar or Gold, yet – need more times/prices; both are trading right at the lines where we could go either way. We'll let the market tell me what to do on this as usual.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – reports another record unemployment rate (24.6%), so it looks like Draghi is going to need one heck of a whatever to get that colossal failure of Keynesian sense under control; Spanish stocks lead losers this morning, down -1.7% (down -30% since March), bearish on all 3 of our risk mgt durations.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – Chinese and Singaporean stocks couldn’t care less about Draghi’s drivel; if not going up on the “news” tells you anything, it’s a reminder that Qe and anything that looks like it jacks up what is perpetuating #GrowthSlowing to begin with, rising food/oil prices.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team