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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 27, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.81% downside to 1349 and 0.44% upside to 1366. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/26 NYSE 1406
    • Up versus the prior day’s trading of 226
  • VOLUME: on 07/26 NYSE 897.88
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 14.60%
  • VIX:  as of 07/26 was at 17.53
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -9.36%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -25.09%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/26 closed at 1.62
    • Up from the day prior at 1.23 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.46%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.44%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.23
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.21 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: GDP (Q/q), 2Q A, est. 1.4% (prior 1.9%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, 2Q A, est. 1.3% (prior 2.5%)
  • 8:30am: GDP Price Index, 2Q A, est. 1.5% (prior 2%)
  • 8:30am: Core PCE (Q/q), 2Q A, est. 1.8% (prior 2.3%)
  • 9:55am: U. Michigan Confidence, July final, est. 72.0 (prior 72)
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7.0b-$8.0b notes due 5/15/15-9/30/15
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks to intl AIDS conference at 3:35pm; former President Bill Clinton at 4:25pm
    • Commerce Department announces preliminary anti-dumping duties on Chinese and Vietnamese-made wind towers 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • U.S. GDP probably rose at 1.4% annual rate in 2Q, slowest pace in a year
  • Samsung increases lead over Apple in global smartphone mkt
  • Facebook shrs fall amid concerns about pace of growth
  • Universal in talks to sell most of Parlophone to BMG
  • Whole Foods Market reviewing health claims about DHA
  • Cnooc hires U.S. lobbyists to avoid Unocal-style problems with Nexen acquisition
  • Federal Reserve Bank of NY urged federal judge to dismiss Starr International’s lawsuit over govt. bailout of AIG
  • Ecuadorian judge ruled Chevron must pay $19b in environmental damages from ops in the country, higher than $18.2b original ruling: DJ
  • Amarin won FDA approval for first drug, Vascepa, to combat high levels of blood fat that lead to stroke, heart attack
  • Booz Allen Hamilton said to have cut size, rate on term loan B it’s seeking to pay dividend
  • Prologis may sell ~$800m of U.S. properties by end of 2012, co-CEO Hamid Moghadam told Bloomberg News
  • Spanish unemployment rises to highest in democratic history
  • Italy borrowing costs fall at 6-month bill auction
  • U.S. Congress probably will delay action on legislation to ease trade relations with Russia until after country joins WTO next month
  • Burberry to buy out license rights of Inter Parfums for $220m
  • Fed, ECB Meet; U.S. Jobs; Olympics: Week Ahead

 EARNINGS:

    • Calpine (CPN) 6am, $0.01
    • Colfax (CFX) 6am, $0.36
    • Helmerich & Payne (HP) 6am, $1.15
    • TMX Group (X CN) 6am, C$0.73
    • LyondellBasell (LYB) 6am, $1.40
    • Prosperity Bancshares (PB) 6:02am, $0.77
    • Magellan Health Services (MGLN) 6:30am, $0.91
    • WABCO Holdings (WBC) 6:30am, $1.17
    • Coventry Health Care (CVH) 6:30am, $0.64
    • Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) 6:30am, $0.45; Preview
    • Barnes Group (B) 6:30am, $0.48
    • Aon (AON) 6:30am, $1.02
    • DTE Energy Co (DTE) 7am, $0.70
    • LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT) 7am, $0.81
    • Merck (MRK) 7am, $1.01; Preview
    • Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) 7am, $0.12
    • DR Horton (DHI) 7am, $0.19; Preview
    • Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) 7am, $0.23
    • Legg Mason (LM) 7am, $0.03
    • OneBeacon Insurance Group Ltd (OB) 7am, $0.26
    •  Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) 7am, $1.64
    • Alliance Holdings GP (AHGP) 7am, $0.84
    • NV Energy (NVE) 7am, $0.18
    • Celestica (CLS CN) 7am, $0.24
    • HMS Holdings (HMSY) 7:30am, $0.21
    • First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG) 7:30am, $0.18
    • American Axle (AXL) 7:30am, $0.50
    • TransForce (TFI CN) 7:30am, C$0.37
    • Arch Coal (ACI) 7:45am, $(0.18)
    • Cameco (CCO CN) 8am, $0.21
    • KKR (KKR) 8am, $0.16
    • Moog (MOG/A) 8am, $0.85
    • Atco Ltd/Canada (ACO/X CN) 8:07am, C$1.36
    • Canadian Utilities Ltd (CU CN) 8:16am, C$0.86
    • Chevron (CVX) 8:30am, $3.23
    • TransCanada (TRP CN) 8:45am, C$0.48
    • NuStar Energy (NS) 8:45am, $0.25
    • NuStar GP Holdings LLC (NSH) 8:45am, $0.35
    • Forum Energy Technologies (FET) Pre-Mkt, $0.47
    • Highwoods Properties (HIW) Post-Mkt, $0.69 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

USD will Bernanke drive home the 1-2 #BailoutBull punch next week? I don’t know; neither does the Dollar or Gold, yet – need more times/prices; both are trading right at the lines where we could go either way. We'll let the market tell me what to do on this as usual.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

SPAIN – reports another record unemployment rate (24.6%), so it looks like Draghi is going to need one heck of a whatever to get that colossal failure of Keynesian sense under control; Spanish stocks lead losers this morning, down -1.7% (down -30% since March), bearish on all 3 of our risk mgt durations.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 


ASIAN MARKETS

CHINA – Chinese and Singaporean stocks couldn’t care less about Draghi’s drivel; if not going up on the “news” tells you anything, it’s a reminder that Qe and anything that looks like it jacks up what is perpetuating #GrowthSlowing to begin with, rising food/oil prices.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team