TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 26, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.51% downside to 1331 and 0.76% upside to 1348.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/25 NYSE 226
- Up versus the prior day’s trading of -1477
- VOLUME: on 07/25 NYSE 783.50
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -3.08%
- VIX: as of 07/25 was at 19.3
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -5.52%
- Year-to-date decrease of -17.35%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/25 closed at 1.23
- Down from the day prior at 2.08
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.42%
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.40%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.20
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.18
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30 am: Durable Goods Orders, June, est. 0.3% (prior 1.3%)
- 8:30 am: Initial Jobless Claims, July 21, est. 380k (prior 386k)
- 8:30 am: Continuing Claims, July 14, est. 3.3m (prior 3.314m)
- 9:45 am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 22 (prior -37.9)
- 10am: Pending Home Sales M/m, June, est. 0.3% (prior 5.9%)
- 10am: Pending Home Sales Y/y, June, est. 12.1% (prior 15.3%)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
- 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, July, est. 4 (prior 3)
- 11am: U.S. to purchase $1.5-$2b notes due 2/15/36-5/15/42
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate in session
- First Lady Michelle Obama arrives in U.K. in evening, leading presidential Olympics delegation
- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies at a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the Financial Stability Oversight Council Annual Report to Congress and the London interbank offered rate, 10am
- House Financial Services subcommittee hearing on the 10th anniversary of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, 9:30am
- Senate Judiciary Committee holds hearing on the nomination of William Baer to be an assistant attorney general for the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division, 1pm
- CFTC’s Technology Advisory Committee meets to develop methods for the CFTC, self-regulatory organizations and futures customers to verify the location and status of funds in segregated accounts, 10am
- House Ways and Means Committee debates, revises legislation on Russia permanent normal trade relations, matching bill approved by a Senate panel
- State Dept. advisory panel meets on defense trade, 1:30pm
- Woodrow Wilson Center holds discussion on U.S.-Canadian efforts to enhance economies in agriculture and food, health and consumer products, transportation and the environment
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Carlyle, BC Partners agreed to buy United Technologies’s Hamilton Sundstrand industrial unit for $3.46b
- Rambus lost case against LSI, STMicroelectronics over controllers used in electronics, ITC said
- Phil Gramm, former senator who helped write 1999 law that enabled creation of financial giants, told Bloomberg News his legislation didn’t make the system any riskier
- Durable goods orders may climb 0.3%
- Zynga plunged after cutting yr forecast
- BTIG analyst apologizes after results, cuts Zynga to neutral
- Facebook implied volatility plunged 10% on July 24 from record high, falling at the fastest rate ever, trading in options market shows; reports today
- Large-city foreclosure filings climbed almost 60% in 1H 2012: RealtyTrac
- J.C. Penney ready to make deep price cuts to most goods: WSJ
- Alcatel-Lucent to slash 5,000 jobs after slumping to loss
- International Grains Council monthly crop report (9:30am ET)
- Apple senior executives Scott Forstall, Phil Schiller among officials the company said will be called to testify at patent trial against Samsung Electronics set to begin July 30
- Samsung sought court order to prevent Apple from presenting evidence of Samsung’s overall rev., profits and wealth at trial
- Facebook said to be working with HTC to build its own smartphone for release as soon as mid-2013
- BlackRock, Fidelity and Vanguard gauging how their clients hurt by Libor manipulation, whether to take legal action as at least a dozen banks being investigated for rate-rigging
- GenOn Energy, NRG Energy sued by shareholder claiming the $1.7b all-stock deal to acquire GenOn undervalues the co.
- U.S. Navy underestimating cost of its proposed 30-year shipbuilding program by 19%, Congressional Budget Office said in report yesterday
EARNINGS:
- Iron Mountain (IRM) 6am, $0.31
- Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) 6am, $0.44
- Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT) 6am, $0.62
- Ball (BLL) 6am, $0.87
- MetroPCS Communications (PCS) 6am, $0.21
- Covidien (COV) 6am, $1.06
- Potash of Saskatchewan (POT CN) 6am, $1.02; Preview
- Mylan (MYL) 6am, $0.55
- Ashland (ASH) 6:01am, $1.80
- PulteGroup (PHM) 6:30am, $0.05; Preview
- Bunge Ltd (BG) 6:30am, $1.36
- L-3 Communications Holdings (LLL) 6:30am, $1.88
- Barrick Gold (ABX CN) 6:55am, $0.93; Preview
- United Technologies (UTX) 6:59am, $1.42; Preview
- AmerisourceBergen (ABC) 7am, $0.69; Preview
- Moody’s (MCO) 7am, $0.71
- Raytheon Co (RTN) 7am, $1.22
- Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) 7am, $1.32
- Boston Scientific (BSX) 7am, $0.11; Preview
- Sprint Nextel (S) 7am, $(0.41); Preview
- Hershey (HSY) 7am, $0.61
- Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL) 7am, $1.33; Preview
- CME Group (CME) 7am, $0.83
- Consol Energy (CNX) 7am, $0.32
- Dow Chemical (DOW) 7am, $0.64
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 7am, $1.40
- Interpublic Group of (IPG) 7am, $0.21
- International Paper (IP) 7am, $0.46
- EQT (EQT) 7am, $0.31
- Lazard (LAZ) 7am, $0.25
- Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) 7am, $1.38
- Ventas (VTR) 7:02am, $0.92
- McGraw-Hill (MHP) 7:10am, $0.76
- 3M (MMM) 7:30am, $1.65; Preview
- Celgene (CELG) 7:30am, $1.18
- Mead Johnson Nutrition Co (MJN) 7:30am, $0.77
- Invesco Ltd (IVZ) 7:30am, $0.43
- Imax (IMX CN) 7:30am, $0.21
- Kimberly-Clark (KMB) 7:30am, $1.28
- Noble Energy (NBL) 7:30am, $0.93
- Waste Management (WM) 7:30am, $0.52
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) 7:30am, $1.61
- CMS Energy (CMS) 7:30am, $0.38
- United Continental (UAL) 7:30am, $1.66
- NextEra Energy (NEE) 7:31am, $1.16
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) 8am, $1.95
- BorgWarner (BWA) 8am, $1.37
- Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) 8am, $0.82
- Prologis (PLD) 8am, $0.42
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) 8am
- Precision Castparts (PCP) 8am, $2.36
- Vulcan Materials (VMC) 8am, $0.06
- Cameron International (CAM) 8:10am, $0.72
- New York Times Co (NYT) 8:30am, $0.13
- Royal Caribbean (RCL) 8:35am, $0.03
- Imperial Oil (IMO CN) 9am, C$0.81
- Goldcorp (G CN) Pre-mkt, $0.42; Preview
- Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) 4pm, $0.39
- Facebook (FB) 4pm, $0.11
- Federated Investors (FII) 4pm, $0.40
- Principal Financial Group (PFG) 4pm, $0.74
- Expedia (EXPE) 4pm, $0.72
- CBL & Associates (CBL) 4pm, $0.49
- Amazon.com (AMZN) 4:01pm, $0.03
- Amgen (AMGN) 4:01pm, $1.55; Preview
- Chubb (CB) 4:01pm, $1.15
- Cincinnati Financial (CINF) 4:01pm, $0.11
- Cerner (CERN) 4:01pm, $0.54
- Global Payments (GPN) 4:01pm, $0.95
- Coinstar (CSTR) 4:01pm, $1.16
- Starbucks (SBUX) 4:03pm, $0.45
- Leggett & Platt (LEG) 4:05pm, $0.36
- CA (CA) 4:05pm, $0.60
- Republic Services (RSG) 4:05pm, $0.49
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) 4:05pm, $0.95
- McKesson (MCK) 4:10pm, $1.48
- KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 4:15pm, $1.32
- Tellabs (TLAB) Post-Mkt
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
GOLD – Hilsenrath got some Gold and Oil bulls lathered up with some Qe rumoring, but the US Dollar and TREND levels in both Gold/Oil are saying Bernanke disappoints #BailoutBulls again. If all Bernanke does is more twisting of the curve, that only perpetuates one of the biggest risks I see out there right now, Yield Curve compression.
- Mr. Titanic Mistry Predicts Sinking Palm-Oil Prices: Commodities
- Crude Oil Advances in New York After ECB Says Euro Will Survive
- China Said to Tell Edible-Oil Suppliers to Keep Price Stable
- Gold Climbs in New York as Draghi Comments Give Boost to Euro
- Soybeans Decline as Rains Set to Relieve Parched U.S. Fields
- Sugar Falls to One-Week Low on Brazil Area’s Crop; Coffee Rises
- Copper Rises as ECB’s Draghi Says the Euro Will Be Supported
- Hong Kong’s Largest Bullion Vault Signals Rising Asia Wealth
- Cocoa Getting Boost by Year-End as Factories Erode Butter Glut
- Western Iowa Corn Yields Seen Plunging 30%: Doane Tour Samples
- Goldcorp Second-Quarter Profit Misses Estimates as Costs Rise
- Shell May Have to Trim 2012 Arctic Drilling Amid Delays: Energy
- Vietnam Coffee Exports May Rise to 130,000 Tons This Month
- North Dakota Spring, Durum Crops Seen Topping Last Year on Rains
- Farmers May See Gains Amid Drought With U.S.-Backed Insurance
- Barrick Gold Quarterly Earnings Miss Estimates as Output Falls
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – both the IBEX and MIB indexes are now slicing through their May closing lows; they are both crashing (so is Russia, Brazil, etc), but Spain’s is the nastiest, down -33% since March. How’s that short selling ban going?
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – they’re not going to cut rates w/ food/oil prices up here; at least, that’s what the Shanghai Comp thinks, trading down another -0.5% overnight to fresh YTD lows (down -13.7% since May when growth really started slowing faster).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
