TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 24, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -1.45% downside to 1331 and 0.41% upside to 1356.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/23 NYSE -1601
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of -1007
- VOLUME: on 07/23 NYSE 742.90
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -25.90%
- VIX: as of 07/23 was at 18.62
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 14.44%
- Year-to-date decrease of -20.43%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/23 closed at 1.23
- Down from the day prior at 1.99
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.43%
- Unchanged from prior day’s trading
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.22
- Unchanged from prior day’s trading
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
- 8:45am: Fed’s Bernanke speaks to the Children’s Defense Fund National Conference on early childhood education via prerecorded video
- 10am: Markit US PMI Preliminary, July, est. 52 (prior 52.9)
- 10am: Richmond Fed Manuf Index, July, est. -1 (prior -3)
- 10am: FHFA House Price Index M/m, May, est. 0.4% (prior 0.8%
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/36-5/15/42
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-wk, 52-wk bills
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-yr notes
- 4:30pm: API inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate in session
- Senate hearing on consumer impact of broadcast-cable disputes: CBS, TWC
- Senate Judiciary holds hearing on super PACs, 2:30pm
- Senate Energy holds hearing on natural gas and transportation, 10am
- House Energy hears from Chairman Allison Macfarlane, three NRC commissioners at oversight hearing, 10am
- House Financial Services’ Consumer Credit subcommittee hearing on legislation to create a federal charter for non- depository lenders, 10am
- House Financial Services Insurance Subcommittee hearing on Dodd-Frank Act’s impact on insurance industry, 2pm
- Senate Banking Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection holds hearing “Private Student Loans: Providing Flexibility and Opportunity to Borrowers;” Sallie Mae President Jack Remondi to testify, 2:30pm
- NHTSA hearing on proposal to mandate anti-rollover technology in heavy-duty trucks, 10am
- U.S. Chemical Safety Board releases preliminary findings from the investigation into BP’s 2010 Macondo well explosion in the Gulf of Mexico, 9:05am
- International Swaps and Derivatives Association holds a Dodd-Frank Transaction Reporting Conference to review requirements’ impact on participants in the $648t global swaps market, 8:15am in New York
- CFA exam level I & II results are e-mailed after 9am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Germany pushes back after Moody’s lowers rating outlooks
- Goldman Sachs, Bain Capital and Carlyle urged federal judge to dismiss lawsuit accusing largest investment banks, P/E firms of conspiring to rig bids on leveraged buyouts
- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said President Obama “absolutely committed” to letting tax cuts for wealthiest Americans expire as scheduled, in interview on “Charlie Rose” show yesterday
- Apple lost Dusseldorf appeals court bid to ban sales of Samsung Electronics’s Galaxy 10.1N tablet computer
- Rosneft starts talks with BP on buying stake in Russia venture
- Compensation consultant to Best Buy’s board quit after company awarded more than 100 managers retention bonuses without tying them to performance
- China manufacturing gauge shows slowdown may be ebbing
- Spain’s borrowing costs rise at 3-mo. bill auction
- Home values posted first Y/y increase since 2007 in 2Q as U.S. property market began to lift off bottom, Zillow said
- Apple plans to send security manager to Black Hat USA 2012 to discuss iPhone, iPad, making first appearance at one of the hacking world’s largest conferences
- U.S. Chemical Safety Board releases preliminary results from BP/Macondo investigation
EARNINGS:
- Spirit Airlines (SAVE) 5:45am, $0.47
- RF Micro Devices (RFMD) 4pm, $0.01
- Whirlpool (WHR) 6am, $1.69
- Total System Services (TSS) 4pm, $0.32
- EI du Pont de Nemours (DD) 6am, $1.46
- FMC Technologies (FTI) 4pm, $0.48
- Polaris Industries (PII) 6am, $0.91
- Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4pm, $0.65
- Synovus Financial (SNV) 6am, $0.02
- Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 4pm , $0.68
- Centene Corp (CNC) 6am, $(0.10)
- Panera Bread (PNRA) 4pm, $1.43
- NorthWestern (NWE) 6am, $0.29
- Hatteras Financial (HTS) 4pm, $0.89
- Potlatch (PCH) 6:45am, $0.09
- Robert Half International (RHI) 4pm, $0.35
- Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) 6:47am, C$0.86
- Norfolk Southern (NSC) 4:01pm, $1.53
- Altria Group (MO) 6:58am, $0.57
- Nabors Industries (NBR) 4:01pm, $0.37
- Reynolds American (RAI) 6:58am, $0.76
- Illumina (ILMN) 4:01pm, $0.37
- EMC (EMC) 7am, $0.39
- American Campus Com. (ACC) 4:01pm, $0.49
- Simon Property Group (SPG) 7am, $1.81
- Ezcorp (EZPW) 4:01pm, $0.62
- Biogen Idec (BIIB) 7am, $1.56
- Questcor Pharmaceuticals(QCOR) 4:02pm, $0.65
- Lexmark International (LXK) 7am, $0.88
- Thoratec (THOR) 4:02pm, $0.44
- Penn National Gaming (PENN) 7am, $0.64
- TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:03pm, $0.41
- Western Union (WU) 7am, $0.43
- Broadcom (BRCM) 4:05pm, $0.67
- Ametek (AME) 7am, $0.46
- Netflix (NFLX) 4:05pm, $0.05
- Regions Financial (RF) 7am, $0.14
- Juniper Networks (JNPR) 4:05pm, $0.16
- Husky Energy (HSE CN) 7am, $0.36
- Tempur-Pedic International (TPX) 4:05pm, $0.38
- Under Armour (UA) 7am, $0.05
- Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 4:05pm, $0.21
- Pentair (PNR) 7am, $0.80
- Polycom (PLCM) 4:05pm, $0.20
- Waters (WAT) 7am, $1.16
- Aflac (AFL) 4:07pm, $1.61
- AT&T (T) 7:25am, $0.63
- Compuware (CPWR) 4:13pm, $0.07
- Rockwell Collins (COL) 7:30am, $1.15
- Aaron’s Inc (AAN) 4:15pm, $0.47
- Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) 7:30am, $0.46
- CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) 4:15pm, $0.71
- Anixter International Inc (AXE) 7:30am, $1.50
- International Game Tech. (IGT) 4:15pm, $0.29
- FirstMerit (FMER) 7:30pm, $0.28
- Altera Corp (ALTR) 4:15pm, $0.39
- PrivateBancorp (PVTB) 7:30am, $0.16
- Cymer (CYMI) 4:25pm, $0.04
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) 7:30am, $1.91
- WR Berkley (WRB) 4:29pm, $0.61
- United Parcel Service (UPS) 7:45am, $1.17
- Apple (AAPL) 4:30pm, $10.37
- Ryder System (R) 7:55am, $0.93
- Unisys (UIS) 4:30pm, $0.51
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 8am, $1.10
- Trustmark (TRMK) 4:30pm, $0.44
- Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 8am, $0.97
- Linear Technology (LLTC) 5pm, $0.45
- Paccar (PCAR) 8am, $0.81
- Ctrip.com (CTRP) 5pm, $0.20
- Peabody Energy (BTU) 8am, $0.53
- Range Resources (RRC) 5pm, $0.06
- Six Flags Entertainment (SIX) 8am, $0.73
- Bell Aliant (BA CN) 5pm, $0.43
- Gentex (GNTX) 8am, $0.29
- Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) 5pm, $0.24
- Lennox International (LII) 8am, $0.96
- Valmont Industries (VMI) 5:30pm , $2.16
- Liberty Property Trust (LRY) 8am, $0.63
- Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) 5:31pm, $0.06
- Wabtec (WAB) 8:05am, $1.23
- Suncor Energy (SU CN) After-mkt, $0.73
- Avery Dennison (AVY) 8:30am, $0.54
- Community Bank System (CBU) Aft-mkt, $0.50
- Neogen (NEOG) 8:45am, $0.26
- Newfield Exploration (NFX) Aft-mkt, $0.64
- Carlisle (CSL) Bef-mkt, $1.28
- UMB Financial (UMBF) Aft-mkt, $0.69
- Jarden Corp (JAH) Bef-mkt, $1.10
- Rock-Tenn (RKT) Aft-mkt, $1.02
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – bearish TREND; bullish TRADE; we’ll stay short it with a wall of TREND line resistance up at $108.37 Brent. The only thing that can get US and Chinese Growth back on track is a sustainable drop in Brent back below $90. With Qe drug addictions in this market’s whisper, good luck with that.
- Europe Heat Wave Wilting Corn Adds to U.S. Drought: Commodities
- China Ousts U.S. in Canada Oil Market With Bid for Nexen: Energy
- Investors Plow Cash Into Crops as Gold Jilted: Chart of the Day
- Crude Trades Near One-Week Low on Worsening European Crisis
- Copper Seen Rising as China Factory Contraction May Be Slowing
- Corn, Soybeans Tumble on European Risk, Forecast for Some Rains
- LNG Goes Extra 9,800 Miles as Europe Spurs Record Rates: Freight
- Cocoa Climbs on Speculation El Nino Will Cut Output; Sugar Falls
- U.S. Gas Futures Near Seven-Month High on Warm Weather Forecasts
- U.K. Natural Gas for Today Advances as Norwegian Imports Decline
- Illinois Corn, Soy Yields Drop From 2011, Doane Crop Tour Shows
- South Korea Buys 6,000 Tons of High-Grade Aluminum in Tenders
- Cocoa Usage Seen Falling as Processors Erode World Butter Glut
- Copper Gain Seen as New-Home Sales Spur Demand: Chart of the Day
- Gold Set to Decline in London as Europe Concern Bolsters Dollar
- Morgan Stanley Increases 2012 U.S. Gas Price Forecast by 14%
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GERMANY – for once we actually agree with a Moody’s move on the margin; Germany’s #GrowthSlowing slope has accelerated on the downside in the last 6 weeks, and that matters. This morning’s PMI print of 43.3 for July in Germany is an absolute bomb (45.0 in June) – German GDP growth could easily go negative y/y in Q3 (consensus has it up +0.5%).
ASIAN MARKETS
HANG SENG – nasty 2-day 4% drop in a major leading indicator in our model that certainly trumps whatever flash there was in the made-up HSBC PMI print of 49.5; Hang Seng, like KOSPI, is now back into a Bearish Formation (both of these indexes have led the SP500 and German DAX since March, so watch them both closely – Asian Growth is Too Big to Bail).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
