TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 23, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or -1.15% downside to 1347 and 0.91% upside to 1375. 











  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/20 NYSE -1007
    • Down versus the prior day’s trading of 109
  • VOLUME: on 07/20 NYSE 1002.57
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 35.52%
  • VIX:  as of 07/20 was at 16.27
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 5.31%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -30.47%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/20 closed at 1.99
    • Up from the day prior at 1.24 


  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 37
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.40%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.46%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.19
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.26 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30 am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, June (prior -0.45)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes due 7/31/18-5/15/20
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 4pm: Weekly crop progress report
  • 7pm: Fed’s Raskin speaks on community banking in Colo. 


    • House, Senate in session
    • Competing bills by Democrats, Republicans on how to extend expiring Bush-era tax cuts in position for floor consideration this week
    • Supreme Court not in session
    • Intl. meeting on how to treat HIV/AIDS; speakers include Bill Gates, Pres. Bill Clinton
    • U.S. International Trade Commission hearing begins against LG Electronics brought by Taiwan’s science agency over backlight modules in computers and televisions 


  • NRG Energy to buy GenOn in deal valued at $1.7b
  • Nasdaq boosts payout in Facebook IPO to $62m cash
  • China central-bank adviser forecasts growth slowdown to 7.4%
  • Apple, Samsung go to trial in Australia over patents
  • Universal Music Group’s plan to acquire EMI Music said to be facing doubts by European antitrust regulators: WSJ
  • Spanish yields jump to records on region aid concern
  • Greece re-takes focus at center of euro crisis this week as intl. creditors arrive in Athens tmw
  • Boeing said fault with Rolls-Royce engine gear part limited to 5 planes, wouldn’t affect operators beyond All Nippon Airways
  • DreamWorks Animation agreed to acquire Classic Media for $155m
  • AT&T reached tentative agreement with Communications Workers of America in contract talks for 18,700 land-line employees
  • CVR Energy’s 60-day sale process expires
  • Citigroup, Commonwealth Bank of Australia received Australian retail sales data for March ~18 min. before general public because of mix-up at statistics bureau, documents showed
  • Forest Labs-Almirall’s aclidinium bromide to treat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD, faces FDA decision, with Pdufa date est. to be today by Bloomberg Industries
  • Rupert Murdoch resigns from U.K. newspaper boards
  • Germany’s Roesler “very skeptical” Greece can be rescued
  • Penn State sanctions due as CBS says $60m fine possible


    • Hasbro (HAS) 6am, $0.24; Preview
    • Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) 6:30am, $0.73
    • Eaton (ETN) 6:32am, $1.08
    • Halliburton (HAL) 6:56am, $0.75
    • Bank of Hawaii (BOH) 7am, $0.87
    • RPM International (RPM) 7:30am, $0.61
    • McDonald’s (MCD) 7:58am, $1.38; Preview
    • VMware (VMW) 4pm, $0.66
    • Vantiv (VNTV) 4pm, $0.28
    • J&J Snack Foods (JJSF) 4pm, $0.98
    • Woodward (WWD) 4pm, $0.43
    • BancorpSouth (BXS) 4:01pm, $0.20
    • Fidelity National Financial (FNF) 4:03pm, $0.48
    • Hexcel (HXL) 4:03pm, $0.39
    • Waste Connections (WCN) 4:04pm, $0.36
    • Health Management Associates (HMA) 4:05pm, $0.21
    • Zions Bancorp (ZION) 4:10pm, $0.35
    • StanCorp Financial Group (SFG) 4:12pm, $0.58
    • CoreLogic (CLGX) 4:15pm, $0.37
    • Rent-A-Center (RCII) 4:19pm, $0.71
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) 4:30pm, $0.34
    • Baidu (BIDU) 4:30pm, $1.13
    • Idex (IEX) 4:35pm, $0.71
    • FNB (FNB) 4:35pm, $0.20
    • ST Micro (STM IM) 4:42pm, EUR(0.03)
    • United Stationers (USTR) 4:45pm, $0.63
    • Brookfield Canada Office Properties (BOX-U CN) 5pm, C$0.37
    • Owens & Minor (OMI) 5pm, $0.49
    • Helix Energy Solutions Group (HLX) 6pm, $0.42
    • Olin (OLN) 6pm, $0.53
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) 6pm, $0.20
    • Celanese (CE) Post-mkt, $1.39
    • Crane (CR) Post-mkt, $0.94 


  • Bulls Ascendant as Wagers Climb to Three-Month High: Commodities
  • Breadbaskets of Last Resort See Once-in-a-Lifetime Crop Prices
  • Hedge Funds Increase Gas Bets as Surplus Shrinks: Energy Markets
  • Power Dearth Threatens Indonesia Smelter Bids: Southeast Asia
  • Commodities Slump Most in One Month on Greece, China Slowdown
  • Corn Falls From Record as Soybeans Drop on Outlook for Slowdown
  • Copper Drops as Concern About Greek Euro Exit Bolsters Dollar
  • Gold Declines in London as Europe’s Debt Crisis Boosts Dollar
  • Sugar Falls With Commodities on Speculation Prices Rose Too Far
  • Goldman Sees $9 Corn and $20 Soybeans on Scorched U.S. Crops
  • Oil Plunges to Four-Day Low as European Debt Turmoil Intensifies
  • China Refined Copper Imports at 10-Month Low as Exports Slump
  • Vale Seen Posting Best Mining Profit Surprise: Corporate Brazil
  • Lead Stockpiles Fall to 10-Month Low as Shortage May Be in Works
  • China Bauxite, Nickel Ore Imports Slump After Indonesia Ban
  • Doubling Orders for Copper Supply Signal Rally: Chart of the Day 





USD – get the Dollar and Growth right, and you’ll get a lot of other things right. The UST yield has had this nailed for weeks as US Equities drifted higher on no volume. New lows for the 10yr yield at 1.41 mean the Yield Spread hits a YTD low at 120bps wide. If that goes flat and the USD > 85, we’ll look really right on shorting oil last Thursday.






ITALY – consensus focused on Spain/Greece this morning (both stock markets down over -4% after getting hammered on Friday), but the real concern here is how does Italy functionally get a bailout without German Parliament voting on it until September 12th? IBEX and MIB crashing, down -33% and -26% from YTD tops. Big move in the last 2 days.






ASIA – got globally interconnected #GrowthSlowing? Yep, markets do – from Japan (down -1.9%, taking its swoon since March to -17%) to the Hang Seng getting tagged for a -3% drop overnight; signals in both the Shanghai Comp and KOSPI have been crystal clear – and so is the data. There is no Bernanke Bailout for Chinese or South Korean demand.










The Hedgeye Macro Team

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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