RCL YOUTUBE

In preparation for RCL's 2Q earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.

 

 

1Q CONFERENCE CALL YOUTUBE (APRIL 20)

 

RCL YOUTUBE - RCL

  • "We continue to experience a slow but steady recovery in our booking patterns."
  • "On the other hand, not surprisingly, the second and third quarters are suffering the most. They book a great deal during the wave period and the summer is our most valuable season, especially in Europe, with less of a cushion than the first quarter, they are therefore and not surprisingly the most vulnerable. On the other hand, as we enter the fall, we appear to be turning a corner. Sailings in the fourth quarter and for all of 2013 show promise. Both remained stronger than comparables from the same time last year and I think that further validates our belief that this is a shorter-term issue."
  • "Another point of encouragement is the strength of our developmental itineraries this year. Brazil performed nicely in the first quarter. Asia appears to be rebounding from last year's tsunami and then some and Australia is nicely absorbing some meaningful growth in capacity this year."
  • "We expect that half of our guests will be coming from outside the United States this year." 
  • "The pace of new bookings and the price points in the market have been very consistent with the midpoint of our previous guidance. Demand is still somewhat volatile and as many of you have witnessed there are many mixed signals in the pricing surveys being done. Uncertainty still remains, especially for European itineraries this summer, but so far the performance has been consistent with our earlier expectations."
  • "Over the past four weeks though, we have seen better demand especially from the United States where year-over-year bookings have been exceeding last year's levels."
  • "As of today, our total booked load factors are slightly behind the same time last year for the second and third quarters, but ahead for the fourth quarter and for 2013. Our booked APD's are higher than the same time last year in all quarters. Overall, our current pricing remains in line or higher than the same time last year for all major itinerary groups except Europe. At this time last year, the Arab Spring was in progress but it wasn't until May that we felt the full impact on bookings in the Eastern Med and we took our most aggressive pricing actions. This year, the challenge is more widespread than the Eastern Med, but the level of discounting is more contained."
  • "The net effect of all this, we expect some yield improvement in the Eastern Med, but overall European yields will likely be down slightly versus last year. On the other hand, all of our other major itinerary groups, including the Caribbean, Alaska and our developmental products are expected to have solid yield performance, with both exceeding 2008 levels."
  • "We expect to have overall yield improvement in the second and fourth quarters, but we expect the weighting of Europe to put pressure on our third quarter performance. Most importantly though, the full year still looks to be on pace with our original projections."
  • "Royal Caribbean International's year-round Caribbean programs are doing nicely, spearheaded of course by Oasis of the Seas and Allure of the Seas, which continued to maintain their impressive performance throughout the year. We expect our Caribbean yields to be higher in 2012 than they were in 2008."
  • "We are at the beginning of our summer seasonal programs, many Royal Caribbean seasonal ships will be in Europe where we are still a few months away from the peak holiday period. Although our capacity in the Mediterranean is down by double-digits from 2011, we remain focused on our sales and marketing effort in the region, both to fill this year's capacity and to continue to build awareness of and preference for our brand."
  • "The bigger story of Royal Caribbean seasonal deployment, however, is the move of Voyager of the Seas to Singapore and then China, while the ship will not arrive in Singapore until May 26, it is clear the perspective presence of Voyager in Asia has galvanized interest in Royal Caribbean in the region. Asia is in general a late booking market, so we still have limited visibility into the performance of specific sailing, but at this stage of the selling effort, we are pleased at the market's response to Voyager."
  • "Royal Caribbean continues to revitalize its older ships under the Royal Advantage umbrella at a brisk pace. Rhapsody of the Seas has recently undergone a complete makeover in Singapore and Grandeur of the Seas is about to have very similar work performed in the Bahamas."
  • "For the summer season, our Alaska product, where we are once again operating three ships, is performing well. Bookings for our seven-night Bermuda sailings out of Cape Liberty this summer are also doing well and we are on pace to achieve healthy yield improvements over last year on both of these products."
  • "We will have Solstice in Australia and New Zealand this coming winter and as a result the Solstice-class ship for the first time sail the West Coast of the United States during the summer of 2013."
  • "One of the characteristics of Europe as a cruise market is that the peak holiday season is more, let's say, July-August whereas in North America it's become in recent years more June-July. So there is a little bit more time. We are beginning to see this now in April, but I would say April, May, June into July, that is the key booking period for really understanding the visibility of how the peak European cruise season will perform."
  • "We've tried a number of different promotional efforts, from prepaid gratuities, onboard credits, buy one get half off for the companion, things like that as well as reduced air. And they respond – the different markets respond differently to all those promotions. I think we're getting better at it, and I think that's helped us gain some traction in Europe, but the rest of our categories, we really haven't had to be very aggressive with the promotions. It's really all been focused on Europe."
  • "We've seen it across the board, we've seen it – very strong beverage revenue, we've seen strong shore ex. revenue. Casino has not rebounded yet, but we've put programs as a whole, but we've put programs together with high rollers to help casino improve."
  • "We are seeing a lot more hesitancy from the first time cruiser."
  • "We kind of look at a 3.75 ratio of net debt-to-EBITDA as kind of the benchmark that we're looking for."

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more