Hedgeye - THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 19, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.37% downside to 1345 and 0.16% upside to 1375.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/18 NYSE 742
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of 1036
VOLUME: on 07/18 NYSE 727.45
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 4.26%
VIX: as of 07/18 was at 16.16
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.94%
- Year-to-date decrease of -30.94%
SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/18 closed at 1.32
- Up from the day prior at 1.04

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

TED SPREAD: as of this morning 37
3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
10-Year: as of this morning 1.50%

Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.49%

YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.29

Down from prior day’s trading at 1.27

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, July 14, est. 364k (prior 350k)
8:30am: Continuing Claims, July 7, est. 3.3m (prior 3.304m)
9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 15
9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, July
10am: Philadelphia Fed, July, est. -8.0 (prior -16.6)
10am: Existing Home Sales, June, est. 4.62m (prior 4.55m)
10am: Leading Indicators, June, est. -0.1% (prior 0.3%)
10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
10:30am: EIA natural gas change
11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b to $2b notes maturing Feb. 15, 2036-May 15, 2042
1pm: U.S. to sell $15b 10-yr TIPS

GOVERNMENT:

President Obama meets with President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology at White House
House, Senate in session
House Oversight and Government Reform holds hearing on impediments to job creation, 9:30am
House Ways and Means holds hearing on U.S. manufacturing, tax reform, with Diane Dossin, chief tax officer for Ford, 9:30am
House Financial Services oversight subcommittee holds hearing on Dodd-Frank’s effects on families, communities, small businesses, 10am
House Financial Services panel holds hearing on Dodd- Frank impact on consumer choice, access to credit, with CFPB Deputy Director Raj Date. 2pm
House Foreign Affairs holds hearing on intellectual property rights infringement, 10am
Defense Dept. holds meeting on recommendations from “Leveraging Public-Private Collaboration to Augment the Department of Defense’s Mission” Task Group Study, 9:45am
NRC meets on low-level radioactive waste disposal, 8am
National Research Council begins two-year probe into Japan’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear accident, 8:30am
National Low Carbon Fuel Standard Project releases report that examines how standard would affect energy posture, national security, food prices, 9am
FERC holds meeting on pending regulatory issues, followed by briefing for reporters, 10am
House Natural Resources invited Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Office of Mining Reclamation and Enforcement Director Joseph Pizarchik to testify on administration compliance with committee subpoenas, 10am
PJM Interconnection CEO Terry Boston, North American Electric Reliability CEO Gerry Cauley, join Energy Central webinar on power grid cybersecurity, 12pm
U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds press conference on economic consequences of Volcker Rule, 3pm
Mickey Levy, BofA chief economist, speaks at American Enterprise Institute event on European debt crisis, 10am
ITC votes on Xantham Gum imports from Austria, China, 11am
FCC holds open meeting to discuss next-generation mapping, wireless broadband, 10:30am
Journal of Commerce issues peak season shipping forecast for second half of 2012, 2pm

WHAT TO WATCH:

Highstar Capital agrees to buy Veolia unit for $1.9b
BC Partners, Canada Pension, mgmt buy Suddenlink for $6.6b in assumed debt and equity, from holders incl. Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, Quadrangle, Oaktree Capital Management
Spain 5.5% 2017 bond auction at record high yield 6.459%
France 5-year note auction yield at record low 0.86%
Deutsche Bank to cut 1,000 investment banking jobs: Handelsblatt
American Express profit beats ests as card spending climbs
Novartis profit beats estimates as sales of new drugs climb
China to provide $20b in loans to Africa: President Hu Jintao
Apple must publish U.K. notice that Samsung didn’t copy IPad
Deutsche Bank, HSBC traders probed for Libor collusion
Ex-Progress CEO to speak for first time about Duke ouster
Fender Musical, Kayak, Palo Alto among 4 U.S. IPOs possible
Monthly Europe CHMP decisions possible today, tomorrow
Soybeans climb to record in Chicago trading

EARNINGS:

Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) 5:55am, $0.16
Nexen (NXY CN) 6am, $0.31
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 6am, $1.20; Preview
Danaher (DHR) 6am, $0.81
BB&T (BBT) 6am, $0.70
Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6am, $0.91
KeyCorp (KEY) 6:20am, $0.18
Textron (TXT) 6:30am, $0.44
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 6:30am, $0.35
Wesco International (WCC) 6:30am, $1.21
Laboratory Corp of America (LH) 6:45am, $1.79
Philip Morris International (PM) 7am, $1.35; Preview
Travelers (TRV) 7am, $1.34
Snap-on (SNA) 7am, $1.20
Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7am, $1.91
Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 7am, $1.17
Baxter International (BAX) 7am, $1.11
AutoNation (AN) 7am, $0.59
VF (VFC) 7am, $0.94
Johnson Controls (JCI) 7am, $0.67
Pool (POOL) 7am, $1.35
Entegris (ENTG) 7am, $0.16
Hubbell (HUB/B) 7am, $1.22
Morgan Stanley (MS) 7:15am, $0.29; Preview
Southwest Airlines (LUV) 7:25am, $0.33
Verizon Communications (VZ) 7:30am, $0.64; Preview
Fairchild Semiconductor Intl (FCS) 7:30am, $0.16
Sonoco Products (SON) 7:30am, $0.58
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) 8am, $0.75
Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 8am, $0.18
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) 8am, $2.12
Union Pacific (UNP) 8am, $1.97
Life Time Fitness (LTM) 8am, $0.72
TCF Financial (TCB) 8am, $0.18
PPG Industries (PPG) 8:11am, $2.37
Blackstone Group (BX) 8am, $0.11
GATX (GMT) 8:30am, $0.61
Syntel (SYNT) 8:30am, $0.81
Genuine Parts (GPC) 8:54am, $1.07
Nucor (NUE) 9:01am, $0.48
Safeway (SWY) 9am, $0.49
Shoppers Drug Mart (SC CN) 10:06am, C$0.70
NCR (NCR) 4pm, $0.57
Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4pm, $0.46
Acacia Research (ACTG) 4pm, $0.21
Align Technology (ALGN) 4pm, $0.28
Hub Group (HUBG) 4pm, $0.48
Google (GOOG) 4:01pm, $10.12
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4:01pm, $2.30
Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC) 4:01pm, $0.24
Athenahealth (ATHN) 4:01pm, $0.24
B&G Foods (BGS) 4:01pm, $0.31
Glimcher Realty Trust (GRT) 4:03pm, $0.14
E*Trade Financial (ETFC) 4:04pm, $0.11
People’s United Financial (PBCT) 4:05pm, $0.19
SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05pm, $0.18
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05pm, $3.57
Microsoft (MSFT) 4:05pm, $0.62
Cepheid (CPHD) 4:05pm, $0.02
EastGroup Properties (EGP) 4:05pm, $0.77
Cytec Industries (CYT) 4:06pm, $1.29
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 4:15pm, $0.07
City National (CYN) 4:15pm, $0.88
Gardner Denver (GDI) 4:15pm, $1.40
West Fraser Timber (WFT CN) 5pm, $0.42
Swift Transportation (SWFT) Aft-mkt, $0.23

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

Nuclear Resurgence Seen Luring Paladin Takeover Bid: Commodities
Oil Rises for a Seventh Day on U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles, Housing
Copper Rises for Second Day on Speculation About Stimulus Steps
Crop Surge Sends Soybeans to Record as U.S. Drought Intensifies
Gold Advances in London on Speculation Fed May Add to Stimulus
Raw Sugar Rises to Three-Month High as Soybeans Climb to Record
Chinese Corn Importers Said to Seek Sale of Undelivered Orders
Korea Feed Group Asks U.S. to Curb Corn, Soybean Use in Biofuel
Soybeans Climb to Highest Since 2008, Wheat Advances on Drought
Palm Oil Climbs as Soybeans Rally to Record, Boosting Discount
Biggest Iron Miner Vale Increases Output as Rain Eases in Brazil
Mongolia Government Hopeful Opposes Erdenes TT $3 Billion IPO
India to Review Farm-Exports, Curb Hoarding on Weak Monsoon
Rubber Gains From 2-Week Low as U.S. Data Improve Demand Outlook
China Auto Financing Tripling by 2017 Spurs Vehicle Sales: Cars
Indonesia Set to Keep Palm Oil Export Tax Unchanged at 15%

CURRENCIES

EUROPEAN MARKETS

ASIAN MARKETS

MIDDLE EAST

The Hedgeye Macro Team