TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 19, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.37% downside to 1345 and 0.16% upside to 1375.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/18 NYSE 742
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of 1036
- VOLUME: on 07/18 NYSE 727.45
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 4.26%
- VIX: as of 07/18 was at 16.16
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.94%
- Year-to-date decrease of -30.94%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/18 closed at 1.32
- Up from the day prior at 1.04
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 37
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.50%
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.49%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.29
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.27
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, July 14, est. 364k (prior 350k)
- 8:30am: Continuing Claims, July 7, est. 3.3m (prior 3.304m)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 15
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, July
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed, July, est. -8.0 (prior -16.6)
- 10am: Existing Home Sales, June, est. 4.62m (prior 4.55m)
- 10am: Leading Indicators, June, est. -0.1% (prior 0.3%)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b to $2b notes maturing Feb. 15, 2036-May 15, 2042
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $15b 10-yr TIPS
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama meets with President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology at White House
- House, Senate in session
- House Oversight and Government Reform holds hearing on impediments to job creation, 9:30am
- House Ways and Means holds hearing on U.S. manufacturing, tax reform, with Diane Dossin, chief tax officer for Ford, 9:30am
- House Financial Services oversight subcommittee holds hearing on Dodd-Frank’s effects on families, communities, small businesses, 10am
- House Financial Services panel holds hearing on Dodd- Frank impact on consumer choice, access to credit, with CFPB Deputy Director Raj Date. 2pm
- House Foreign Affairs holds hearing on intellectual property rights infringement, 10am
- Defense Dept. holds meeting on recommendations from “Leveraging Public-Private Collaboration to Augment the Department of Defense’s Mission” Task Group Study, 9:45am
- NRC meets on low-level radioactive waste disposal, 8am
- National Research Council begins two-year probe into Japan’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear accident, 8:30am
- National Low Carbon Fuel Standard Project releases report that examines how standard would affect energy posture, national security, food prices, 9am
- FERC holds meeting on pending regulatory issues, followed by briefing for reporters, 10am
- House Natural Resources invited Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Office of Mining Reclamation and Enforcement Director Joseph Pizarchik to testify on administration compliance with committee subpoenas, 10am
- PJM Interconnection CEO Terry Boston, North American Electric Reliability CEO Gerry Cauley, join Energy Central webinar on power grid cybersecurity, 12pm
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds press conference on economic consequences of Volcker Rule, 3pm
- Mickey Levy, BofA chief economist, speaks at American Enterprise Institute event on European debt crisis, 10am
- ITC votes on Xantham Gum imports from Austria, China, 11am
- FCC holds open meeting to discuss next-generation mapping, wireless broadband, 10:30am
- Journal of Commerce issues peak season shipping forecast for second half of 2012, 2pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Highstar Capital agrees to buy Veolia unit for $1.9b
- BC Partners, Canada Pension, mgmt buy Suddenlink for $6.6b in assumed debt and equity, from holders incl. Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, Quadrangle, Oaktree Capital Management
- Spain 5.5% 2017 bond auction at record high yield 6.459%
- France 5-year note auction yield at record low 0.86%
- Deutsche Bank to cut 1,000 investment banking jobs: Handelsblatt
- American Express profit beats ests as card spending climbs
- Novartis profit beats estimates as sales of new drugs climb
- China to provide $20b in loans to Africa: President Hu Jintao
- Apple must publish U.K. notice that Samsung didn’t copy IPad
- Deutsche Bank, HSBC traders probed for Libor collusion
- Ex-Progress CEO to speak for first time about Duke ouster
- Fender Musical, Kayak, Palo Alto among 4 U.S. IPOs possible
- Monthly Europe CHMP decisions possible today, tomorrow
- Soybeans climb to record in Chicago trading
EARNINGS:
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) 5:55am, $0.16
- Nexen (NXY CN) 6am, $0.31
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 6am, $1.20; Preview
- Danaher (DHR) 6am, $0.81
- BB&T (BBT) 6am, $0.70
- Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6am, $0.91
- KeyCorp (KEY) 6:20am, $0.18
- Textron (TXT) 6:30am, $0.44
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 6:30am, $0.35
- Wesco International (WCC) 6:30am, $1.21
- Laboratory Corp of America (LH) 6:45am, $1.79
- Philip Morris International (PM) 7am, $1.35; Preview
- Travelers (TRV) 7am, $1.34
- Snap-on (SNA) 7am, $1.20
- Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7am, $1.91
- Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 7am, $1.17
- Baxter International (BAX) 7am, $1.11
- AutoNation (AN) 7am, $0.59
- VF (VFC) 7am, $0.94
- Johnson Controls (JCI) 7am, $0.67
- Pool (POOL) 7am, $1.35
- Entegris (ENTG) 7am, $0.16
- Hubbell (HUB/B) 7am, $1.22
- Morgan Stanley (MS) 7:15am, $0.29; Preview
- Southwest Airlines (LUV) 7:25am, $0.33
- Verizon Communications (VZ) 7:30am, $0.64; Preview
- Fairchild Semiconductor Intl (FCS) 7:30am, $0.16
- Sonoco Products (SON) 7:30am, $0.58
- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) 8am, $0.75
- Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 8am, $0.18
- Sherwin-Williams (SHW) 8am, $2.12
- Union Pacific (UNP) 8am, $1.97
- Life Time Fitness (LTM) 8am, $0.72
- TCF Financial (TCB) 8am, $0.18
- PPG Industries (PPG) 8:11am, $2.37
- Blackstone Group (BX) 8am, $0.11
- GATX (GMT) 8:30am, $0.61
- Syntel (SYNT) 8:30am, $0.81
- Genuine Parts (GPC) 8:54am, $1.07
- Nucor (NUE) 9:01am, $0.48
- Safeway (SWY) 9am, $0.49
- Shoppers Drug Mart (SC CN) 10:06am, C$0.70
- NCR (NCR) 4pm, $0.57
- Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4pm, $0.46
- Acacia Research (ACTG) 4pm, $0.21
- Align Technology (ALGN) 4pm, $0.28
- Hub Group (HUBG) 4pm, $0.48
- Google (GOOG) 4:01pm, $10.12
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4:01pm, $2.30
- Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC) 4:01pm, $0.24
- Athenahealth (ATHN) 4:01pm, $0.24
- B&G Foods (BGS) 4:01pm, $0.31
- Glimcher Realty Trust (GRT) 4:03pm, $0.14
- E*Trade Financial (ETFC) 4:04pm, $0.11
- People’s United Financial (PBCT) 4:05pm, $0.19
- SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05pm, $0.18
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05pm, $3.57
- Microsoft (MSFT) 4:05pm, $0.62
- Cepheid (CPHD) 4:05pm, $0.02
- EastGroup Properties (EGP) 4:05pm, $0.77
- Cytec Industries (CYT) 4:06pm, $1.29
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 4:15pm, $0.07
- City National (CYN) 4:15pm, $0.88
- Gardner Denver (GDI) 4:15pm, $1.40
- West Fraser Timber (WFT CN) 5pm, $0.42
- Swift Transportation (SWFT) Aft-mkt, $0.23
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Nuclear Resurgence Seen Luring Paladin Takeover Bid: Commodities
- Oil Rises for a Seventh Day on U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles, Housing
- Copper Rises for Second Day on Speculation About Stimulus Steps
- Crop Surge Sends Soybeans to Record as U.S. Drought Intensifies
- Gold Advances in London on Speculation Fed May Add to Stimulus
- Raw Sugar Rises to Three-Month High as Soybeans Climb to Record
- Chinese Corn Importers Said to Seek Sale of Undelivered Orders
- Korea Feed Group Asks U.S. to Curb Corn, Soybean Use in Biofuel
- Soybeans Climb to Highest Since 2008, Wheat Advances on Drought
- Palm Oil Climbs as Soybeans Rally to Record, Boosting Discount
- Biggest Iron Miner Vale Increases Output as Rain Eases in Brazil
- Mongolia Government Hopeful Opposes Erdenes TT $3 Billion IPO
- India to Review Farm-Exports, Curb Hoarding on Weak Monsoon
- Rubber Gains From 2-Week Low as U.S. Data Improve Demand Outlook
- China Auto Financing Tripling by 2017 Spurs Vehicle Sales: Cars
- Indonesia Set to Keep Palm Oil Export Tax Unchanged at 15%
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team