THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 19, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.37% downside to 1345 and 0.16% upside to 1375. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/18 NYSE 742
    • Down versus the prior day’s trading of 1036
  • VOLUME: on 07/18 NYSE 727.45
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 4.26%
  • VIX:  as of 07/18 was at 16.16
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.94%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -30.94%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/18 closed at 1.32
    • Up from the day prior at 1.04

 CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 37
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.50%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.49%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.29
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.27 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, July 14, est. 364k (prior 350k)
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, July 7, est. 3.3m (prior 3.304m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 15
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, July
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed, July, est. -8.0 (prior -16.6)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, June, est. 4.62m (prior 4.55m)
  • 10am: Leading Indicators, June, est. -0.1% (prior 0.3%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b to $2b notes maturing Feb. 15, 2036-May 15, 2042
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $15b 10-yr TIPS 

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama meets with President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology at White House
    • House, Senate in session
    • House Oversight and Government Reform holds hearing on impediments to job creation, 9:30am
    • House Ways and Means holds hearing on U.S. manufacturing, tax reform, with Diane Dossin, chief tax officer for Ford, 9:30am
    • House Financial Services oversight subcommittee holds hearing on Dodd-Frank’s effects on families, communities, small businesses, 10am
    • House Financial Services panel holds hearing on Dodd- Frank impact on consumer choice, access to credit, with CFPB Deputy Director Raj Date. 2pm
    • House Foreign Affairs holds hearing on intellectual property rights infringement, 10am
    • Defense Dept. holds meeting on recommendations from “Leveraging Public-Private Collaboration to Augment the Department of Defense’s Mission” Task Group Study, 9:45am
    • NRC meets on low-level radioactive waste disposal, 8am
    • National Research Council begins two-year probe into Japan’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear accident, 8:30am
    • National Low Carbon Fuel Standard Project releases report that examines how standard would affect energy posture, national security, food prices, 9am
    • FERC holds meeting on pending regulatory issues, followed by briefing for reporters, 10am
    • House Natural Resources invited Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Office of Mining Reclamation and Enforcement Director Joseph Pizarchik to testify on administration compliance with committee subpoenas, 10am
    • PJM Interconnection CEO Terry Boston, North American Electric Reliability CEO Gerry Cauley, join Energy Central webinar on power grid cybersecurity, 12pm
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds press conference on economic consequences of Volcker Rule, 3pm
    • Mickey Levy, BofA chief economist, speaks at American Enterprise Institute event on European debt crisis, 10am
    • ITC votes on Xantham Gum imports from Austria, China, 11am
    • FCC holds open meeting to discuss next-generation mapping, wireless broadband, 10:30am
    • Journal of Commerce issues peak season shipping forecast for second half of 2012, 2pm

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Highstar Capital agrees to buy Veolia unit for $1.9b
  • BC Partners, Canada Pension, mgmt buy Suddenlink for $6.6b in assumed debt and equity, from holders incl. Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, Quadrangle, Oaktree Capital Management
  • Spain 5.5% 2017 bond auction at record high yield 6.459%
  • France 5-year note auction yield at record low 0.86%
  • Deutsche Bank to cut 1,000 investment banking jobs: Handelsblatt
  • American Express profit beats ests as card spending climbs
  • Novartis profit beats estimates as sales of new drugs climb
  • China to provide $20b in loans to Africa: President Hu Jintao
  • Apple must publish U.K. notice that Samsung didn’t copy IPad
  • Deutsche Bank, HSBC traders probed for Libor collusion
  • Ex-Progress CEO to speak for first time about Duke ouster
  • Fender Musical, Kayak, Palo Alto among 4 U.S. IPOs possible
  • Monthly Europe CHMP decisions possible today, tomorrow
  • Soybeans climb to record in Chicago trading 

EARNINGS:

    • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) 5:55am, $0.16
    • Nexen (NXY CN) 6am, $0.31
    • UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 6am, $1.20; Preview
    • Danaher (DHR) 6am, $0.81
    • BB&T (BBT) 6am, $0.70
    • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6am, $0.91
    • KeyCorp (KEY) 6:20am, $0.18
    • Textron (TXT) 6:30am, $0.44
    • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 6:30am, $0.35
    • Wesco International (WCC) 6:30am, $1.21
    • Laboratory Corp of America (LH) 6:45am, $1.79
    • Philip Morris International (PM) 7am, $1.35; Preview
    • Travelers (TRV) 7am, $1.34
    • Snap-on (SNA) 7am, $1.20
    • Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7am, $1.91
    • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 7am, $1.17
    • Baxter International (BAX) 7am, $1.11
    • AutoNation (AN) 7am, $0.59
    • VF (VFC) 7am, $0.94
    • Johnson Controls (JCI) 7am, $0.67
    • Pool (POOL) 7am, $1.35
    • Entegris (ENTG) 7am, $0.16
    • Hubbell (HUB/B) 7am, $1.22
    • Morgan Stanley (MS) 7:15am, $0.29; Preview
    • Southwest Airlines (LUV) 7:25am, $0.33
    • Verizon Communications (VZ) 7:30am, $0.64; Preview
    • Fairchild Semiconductor Intl (FCS) 7:30am, $0.16
    • Sonoco Products (SON) 7:30am, $0.58
    • Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) 8am, $0.75
    • Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 8am, $0.18
    • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) 8am, $2.12
    • Union Pacific (UNP) 8am, $1.97
    • Life Time Fitness (LTM) 8am, $0.72
    • TCF Financial (TCB) 8am, $0.18
    • PPG Industries (PPG) 8:11am, $2.37
    • Blackstone Group (BX) 8am, $0.11
    • GATX (GMT) 8:30am, $0.61
    • Syntel (SYNT) 8:30am, $0.81
    • Genuine Parts (GPC) 8:54am, $1.07
    • Nucor (NUE) 9:01am, $0.48
    • Safeway (SWY) 9am, $0.49
    • Shoppers Drug Mart (SC CN) 10:06am, C$0.70
    • NCR (NCR) 4pm, $0.57
    • Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4pm, $0.46
    • Acacia Research (ACTG) 4pm, $0.21
    • Align Technology (ALGN) 4pm, $0.28
    • Hub Group (HUBG) 4pm, $0.48
    • Google (GOOG) 4:01pm, $10.12
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4:01pm, $2.30
    • Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC) 4:01pm, $0.24
    • Athenahealth (ATHN) 4:01pm, $0.24
    • B&G Foods (BGS) 4:01pm, $0.31
    • Glimcher Realty Trust (GRT) 4:03pm, $0.14
    • E*Trade Financial (ETFC) 4:04pm, $0.11
    • People’s United Financial (PBCT) 4:05pm, $0.19
    • SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05pm, $0.18
    • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05pm, $3.57
    • Microsoft (MSFT) 4:05pm, $0.62
    • Cepheid (CPHD) 4:05pm, $0.02
    • EastGroup Properties (EGP) 4:05pm, $0.77
    • Cytec Industries (CYT) 4:06pm, $1.29
    • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 4:15pm, $0.07
    • City National (CYN) 4:15pm, $0.88
    • Gardner Denver (GDI) 4:15pm, $1.40
    • West Fraser Timber (WFT CN) 5pm, $0.42
    • Swift Transportation (SWFT) Aft-mkt, $0.23 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Nuclear Resurgence Seen Luring Paladin Takeover Bid: Commodities
  • Oil Rises for a Seventh Day on U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles, Housing
  • Copper Rises for Second Day on Speculation About Stimulus Steps
  • Crop Surge Sends Soybeans to Record as U.S. Drought Intensifies
  • Gold Advances in London on Speculation Fed May Add to Stimulus
  • Raw Sugar Rises to Three-Month High as Soybeans Climb to Record
  • Chinese Corn Importers Said to Seek Sale of Undelivered Orders
  • Korea Feed Group Asks U.S. to Curb Corn, Soybean Use in Biofuel
  • Soybeans Climb to Highest Since 2008, Wheat Advances on Drought
  • Palm Oil Climbs as Soybeans Rally to Record, Boosting Discount
  • Biggest Iron Miner Vale Increases Output as Rain Eases in Brazil
  • Mongolia Government Hopeful Opposes Erdenes TT $3 Billion IPO
  • India to Review Farm-Exports, Curb Hoarding on Weak Monsoon
  • Rubber Gains From 2-Week Low as U.S. Data Improve Demand Outlook
  • China Auto Financing Tripling by 2017 Spurs Vehicle Sales: Cars
  • Indonesia Set to Keep Palm Oil Export Tax Unchanged at 15%

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST

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The Hedgeye Macro Team