Europe Trending Downward

There is a growing list of bearish European data points out today, which are as follows:

European Confidence in the economic outlook fell to 68.9 this month from 70.4 in December to reach a new record low, reports the European Commission.

European retail sales—based on a Bloomberg survey of more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain—measured 44 in January, well below 50 indicating contraction, despite rising slightly from 41.4 in December.

Eight of the largest labor unions in France called a general strike today, proclaiming Sarkozy’s $34 Billion economic stimulus as inadequate and demanding that more be done to counter rising unemployment. As reference, the EU predicts France’s unemployment rate at 9.8% this year and 10.6% next year.


The data points speak for themselves. The Eurozone economy is in its deepest recession since World War II. Credit is tightening (or has eroded in some cases) across the region with unemployment climbing. Not surprisingly, consumer confidence is at an all-time low as Europeans feel the squeeze.

Sarkozy will have to answer to hundreds of thousands of people who marched in cities across France today. Likely there are more protest to come as these dismal economic conditions naturally lead to social unrest, which is a tail risk we have our Eyes on.

Matthew Hedrick
Analyst