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With issues of historic size for 2 & 5 year paper driving yields higher on the short end and market anticipation of a “bad bank”, the curve is starting to show declining steepness -a data point that could be negative on the margin if the trend were to continue.

With a spread of over 170 basis between the twos and tens it would be premature to call this out as a sea change but it is worth taking note of and we will keep it in our line of sight.

Andrew Barber