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You Just Can’t WYNN

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) reported their second quarter earnings last night much to the chagrin of investors. It was a mess. Truly abysmal. Essentially, the company missed guidance and consensus estimates across the board. Things do not bode well for the company going forward. We would sit back on the sidelines and wait. Here’s why:

 

-Even taking into account Wynn’s poor luck at the tables, their results would have still missed consensus estimate. That said, investors were expecting a miss, so we’re not surprised that the stock is having a small relief rally. Also helps that the market is up today.

 

-Given the challenging fundamentals ahead in Macau for Wynn (ie more competition with Sands Cotai Central’s full opening,  anticipation for further slowdown in VIP, China Macro headwinds),  lackluster data coming out of Vegas, and the Okada overhang; we would take profits here.

 

You Just Can’t WYNN  - wynn compare


CHART DU JOUR: REGIONAL GAMERS RATIONALIZING

On the surface, it may seem like a negative but gaming operators can reduce supply

 

  • Given demand trends, it shouldn’t be surprising that operators are reducing the number of slots on their floors
  • Rationalizing the slot floor cuts costs and improves yields
  • We would expect this trend to continue with more competition from new gaming states

 

CHART DU JOUR:  REGIONAL GAMERS RATIONALIZING - NORMAL


To Hedge, Or Not To Hedge, That Is the Question: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITIONS: Long US Dollar (UUP), Short Industrials (XLI), Energy (XLE), and German Bunds (BUNL)

 

Keith is out in California meeting with some of our larger west coast based subscribers, but managed to find a few minutes to sneak into Starbucks and short the SP500 in the Virtual Portfolio.   We’ve been waiting and watching on a price, and our risk management models gave us the signal today.  So, regardless of your strategy, we see this as an opportunity to hedge and reduce exposure.

 

As of 2:15pm today, the SP500 was up 0.63% to 1,372.  Akin to many of the equity market rallies we’ve seen over the past three years, the rally over the last week from the 1,327 level on July 12th was characterized by light volume.   The other important factor in our quantitative models is volatility.

 

The VIX, a measure of SP500 volatility, is down almost 3% on the day to 16.00. Over the past three years, a VIX level of 15ish has pretty consistently signaled a near term bottom in U.S. equities.  We’ve highlighted this in the chart below.

 

To Hedge, Or Not To Hedge, That Is the Question: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - VIX

 

The primary fundamental catalyst over coming weeks is earnings season.  Currently, 73% of the 63 companies that have reported earnings in the SP500 have beat results.  Interestingly, according to analysis from Bloomberg, the entire SP500 is expected to report a -2.1% decline in earnings year-over-year this quarter.  It is difficult to make a case for equities when earnings are not growing.

 

The other key point related to corporate earnings is that downward revisions are a major headwind, especially into 2013.  Currently, SP500 EPS estimates for Q1 2013 and Q2 2013 are for 14% year-over-year growth in each quarter.  Those numbers are likely going a lot lower.

 

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 


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IGT: FQ3 FINE BUT NEW ISSUES EMERGING

Several issues have us concerned despite our expectation for a decent quarter and guidance.

 

 

We expect IGT to report an in-line to slightly better quarter than the consensus of 29 cents.  In a sea of misses, a meet is not such a bad thing.  Guidance shouldn’t change much, also probably a positive on the margin.  We appreciate IGT’s cash flow generation and willingness to return cash to shareholders and the favorable long-term fundamental backdrop for the slot industry makes for a favorable long-term story – on the surface. 

 

On the other hand, IGT has also held in better than most of our names through the turbulence of the past 3 months.  Moreover, there are a few issues that concern us that could weigh on the stock.  Given the following issues – which probably haven’t been appropriately vetted by investors and analysts – we prefer to be on the sideline for now.

  • Industry replacements will likely fall in CYQ2 versus last year.  During the next two years new and expansions units (including Canada) should grow at a healthy clip and drive large YoY increases in total shipments.  However, replacements still make up the lion’s share of total NA shipments and it is disconcerting that after several years of growth, they appear to be stalling out at about 55,000 units/year.
  • We’re once again hearing that there is an ongoing brain drain at IGT.  When CEO Patti Hart joined the company in 2009, there was the expected changing of the guard.  We are now hearing – 3 years later - that there is more discontent and departures among key box and content developers.  The brain drain may have an impact on the next wave of developments down the road.  The wave of new openings and IGT’s share procurement in Canada may hide the impact for a while, but it raises an important red flag for long-term investors.
  • According to AppData, Double Down’s MAU looks like they’ve taken a breather since April and DAU’s also look flat QoQ at 1.4MM.  While DoubleDown is not going to make or break the quarter, it is a sore topic for many investors.  Therefore, disappointment in interactive may elicit an exaggerated response from the investor community, especially given that Patty has marketed this segment as a large source of growth for IGT.

 

F3Q Detail

 

We estimate that IGT will report $576MM of total revenue (2% ahead of consensus) and in-line adjusted EPS of $0.29.

 

Product sales of $264MM at a 53.7% gross margin

  • NA sales of $167MM and gross margin of $94MM
    • $105MM of NA box sales: 7,150 gaming machines at an ASP of $14.7k
      • 4,250 replacements and 2,900 new units, including shipments to:
        • 684 units to Scotia Down
        • 1,425 units to Cleveland and Toledo
        • Over 400 units to PNK’s Baton Rouge
      • ASP’s should be down sequentially due to mix and volume discounts on large orders which shipped this quarter
      • We expect margins to be down slightly on a QoQ basis to 56.4% from 57.1% in the March Q
    • Non box sales of $62MM
      • We expect a sequential uptick due to the Revel opening, for which IGT provided the system.
  • International sales of $97MM and gross margin of $48MM
    • $77MM of box sales: 4,500 units at an ASP of $17.1k
    • Non box sales of $20MM
    • 49% gross margins down from 50% in the March Q
  • Gaming operations revenue and gross margin of $312MM and $187MM, respectively
    • End of Period install base of 56,750
    • Core gaming operations revenue of $272MM, implying an average win per day of $53/day
      • Maryland Live Games came online but only for 23 days of the quarter
    • $40MM of interactive revenue
      • $29.6MM of DoubleDown revenue
      • $10.5MM of other interactive revenue
  • Other stuff:
    • SG&A: $101MM
    • R&D: $55MM
    • D&A: $19MM
    • Net interest expense: $20MM
    • 37% tax rate
    • Weighted average shares outstanding: 294MM

IMPORTS: Are The Holidays At Risk?

Labor strikes are an American past time that have been a constant source of disruption in every industry.  As we get closer to the holiday season, who would have thought that a bunch of longshoremen could prevent us from getting our children the Tickle Me Elmo that they absolutely must have?

 

The International Longshoremen’s Association and US Maritime’s contract runs up in September. They essentially control 20% of total apparel products coming in from Asia. While this could be basic jockeying for a more lucrative contract, recall that in 2002, a 10 day lockout of the west coast ports including the twin LA ports resulted in a $10bn to $20bn hit to the economy daily. Ouch.


Egypt . . . Now What?

Takeaway: The recent Egyptian political uncertainty is supportive of our view that the post Arab Spring transition in the Middle East will be complicated and long tail in nature.  As such, political transitions in the Middle East, in particular Egypt, should remain front and center as a global macro risk.

 

Back in April of 2011, when the Jasmine Revolution and Arab Spring were front and center for global macro risk managers, we wrote the following:

 

“In many ways, Egypt will be a real litmus test for the Middle East. With 85 million people, it is the largest country in the region and geographically it is very central. Furthermore, Egypt does not have any major tribal or sectarian issues, like many sovereign states in the Middle East, so it should have the best chance at a peaceful and democratic transition. Not dissimilar to Egypt’s role in the late 1970s when it was the first Arab nation to officially recognize Israel via the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, Egypt’s leadership may usher in a new era in the Middle East."

 

We believe this view continues to hold as it relates to Egypt. In the note below, we provide some background on Egypt and a couple of scenarios as to the political future of Egypt -- a nation that is and will continue to be a litmus test for the entire region.

 

Background: Egypt’s Political History


Egypt has been a republic since 1952, when members of the military over threw the old monarchy following a defeat in the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. After a brief attempt at civilian rule, the officers terminated the old constitution and declared Egypt a republic on June 19, 1953.

 

Since then, Egypt has had four presidents. Muhammad Naguib was sworn in as the first president of Egypt in 1953, and remained in office until he was succeeded by Gamal Abdel Nasser Hussein, famous for representing Egypt during the Suez Crisis. Nasser held office until his death in 1970, at which point Anwar El Sadat commenced an eleven-year presidency that culminated with his assassination in 1981.

 

Sadat fundamentally changed Egypt’s economic and political direction by re-establishing the multi-party system and negotiating the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.  After Sadat’s death and a brief interim president, Sadat’s former vice president, Muhammad Hosni El Sayed Mubarak, became Egypt’s fourth president in October of 1981.

 

Mubarak’s almost thirty-year presidency was characterized by broad corruption and abuse of power.  Not surprisingly, the Egyptian economy floundered under Mubarak and was in a large part supported by annual aid from the U.S.  Mubarak’s regime maintained one-party rule under a continuous state of emergency, refusing to null the emergency law that had been enacted after the Six-Day War in 1967 and thereby preserving the government’s unchallenged power to censor, imprison, police, and suspend constitutional rights. Under the Mubarak regime, political activists were imprisoned without trial, undocumented detention facilities were established and universities, religious buildings and publications were discriminated against based on political affiliation.

 

In late 2010, Tunisian President Ben Ali was ousted with the advent of popular uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa.  Given Mubarak’s seemingly self-serving and dictatorial rule, few astute political analysts were surprised when in early 2011 Egypt became the epicenter for the “Arab Spring” and popular unrest in the Middle East.

 

As protests escalated in early 2011, Mubarak made a number of live, televised appearances in which he promised governmental reform, but refused to step down from his office. Finally, in mid-February, Mubarak caved – Vice President Omar Suleiman announced that Mubarak was resigning his presidency and turning power over to the Egyptian military, led by Field Marshall Mohammad Hussein Tantawi.

 

Post-Mubarak and the Current Situation


In the aftermath of Mubarak’s deposition, Tantawi dissolved Egypt’s Parliament, suspended its Constitution and promised open presidential and parliamentary elections within six months. The prior cabinet, along with Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik (a secularist with ties to the old regime), was appointed to serve as a caretaker government until a new one was formed. In response to protests, Shafik was replaced on March 5th with Essam Sharaf, Egypt’s former transport minister.

 

In the new political landscape, Islamist parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood demonstrated a renewed strength, taking lead roles in constitutional changes, voter mobilization tactics, and demonstrations.  For many observers, the reemergence of the Muslim Brotherhood signified increased Islamic influence in Egypt and raised questions about the country’s future relationship with Israel, and whether Egypt would be able to assimilate and appease its broad political and religious interest groups.

 

Despite Mubarak’s resignation, protests continued throughout the remainder of 2011, fueling international concern over how long the military junta would rule the country. Parliamentary elections were held in January 2012, with the Muslim Brotherhood winning roughly half of the seats. In March, the Brotherhood reneged on their previous promise to seek the presidency and nominated Mohamed Morsi for office after their first-choice candidate was rejected by courts.  

 

After the first round of voting in Egypt’s presidential election from May 24-25th, the winners were Morsi and Shafik. Around this time, the Egyptian military took a number of legislative measures to extend their powers in what critics labeled a “silent coup.” Such measures included the dissolution of Parliament on the grounds that the law under which it had been elected was unconstitutional, and the passing of a charter limiting presidential authority and giving generals legal and economic control of the country.  The second round of voting took place from June 16-17th, and on June 24th, a week after the polls closed, Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi was confirmed as the official winner of the election with 51.7 percent of the vote to Shafik’s 48.3 percent.

 

In the month since the second round of voting, a string of events have thrown the country’s switch to democracy into confusion as relations between the military establishment and the Brotherhood have grown increasingly strained. The Brotherhood had been well-established during Mubarak’s reign as the primary opposition to his military dictatorship, and its decision to join young liberal activists in revolutionary protests was integral to the revolution’s overall success. That said, it was the military that ultimately ousted Mubarak and took control of Egypt.

 

Ultimately, Morsi’s electoral success gave the Brotherhood a boost in its struggle for power with the Egyptian military. On July 8th, Morsi surprisingly ordered Parliament to reconvene, directly challenging the reigning military that had reaffirmed its order to dissolve the body. Despite this “breach,” the military made no move to prevent the legislators from gathering for a brief parliamentary session on July 10th.

 

At a military ceremony on July 17th, Field Marshal Tantawi asserted: “Egypt will not fall. It is for all Egyptians, not for a certain group – the armed forces will not allow that.” There is ample reason to believe that this defiant statement was addressed to the Brotherhood, and that there may be turbulent times ahead.

 

Expectations for the Future


Egypt has the 27th largest economy in the world, and remains incredibly relevant due to its place as an important American ally in the region and its role in global commerce as the home of the Suez Canal, which transports roughly 8% of the world’s oil supply. Moreover, Egypt has served as a key arbitrator in the Israel-Palestine peace process for thirty years.  As The Economist aptly stated in a recent article:


“With its strategic situation, its cultural influence and a population double that of any other Arab country, Egypt has for three decades now been the linchpin of a precarious but enduring regional Pax Americana.”

 

 At present, a number of unknown variables drastically complicate national (and regional) prospects for a stable future.  Moreover, accelerating internal unrest due to skyrocketing unemployment, as outlined in the chart below, is also a key factor.

 

Egypt . . . Now What? - chart2

 

Each group involved in the present power struggle seems to have a different ideal outcome in mind. The U.S. wants a thriving democracy to bring stability to the region; the army seems to want to maintain a status quo peace; the Muslim Brotherhood wants to establish a nation governed by traditional Islamic values. As a result of these conflicting interests, it’s nearly impossible to confidently predict where the nation is heading. Taking that into consideration, there are three possible directions in which the Egyptian political situation could head over the next few years.

 

Scenario one: The Egyptian military refuses to give up power and re-asserts control. The military wasn’t afraid to seize control of the country during Mubarak’s ousting, and there is no reason to believe that they wouldn’t do so again. Though they did concede in allowing Parliament to endure a five-minute session, they have the self-ordained legislative power to step in at any time. However, if the military did reassert control, it is likely they would face significant international pressure. Specifically, this pressure would come from the U.S. who provides more than $1.3 billion a year to Egypt in military assistance. (In the chart below, we highlight the close relationship between the U.S. and Egyptian stock market over the last six months, which is a point that is likely indicative of the massive U.S. support given to Egypt.) Moreover, if Islamists and liberals alike were to become convinced that the military had no intention of relinquishing power, we would see an increased probability of a second revolution with an unpredictable outcome.

 

Egypt . . . Now What? - Egypt

 

Scenario two: Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood assert power. In response, the military would likely challenge the action in court, which will lead to more even more uncertainty and take months, if not years, to resolve. Even if the Egyptian military were to unexpectedly accept Morsi’s presidency, the challenge of leading Egypt remains monumental. The Egyptian population has endured a tumultuous past couple years, and citizens will be impatient in demanding immediate change. Apart from being forced to juggle what will most certainly be an overwhelming influx of social demands, Morsi will need to be cautious of threatening the military’s economic, commercial, and political interests. Morsi lacks political experience, and whether he has the nerve and/or ability to lead Egypt during this difficult transitional period remains to be seen.

 

Scenario three: Egypt enters a period of conflict and political paralysis, and party disagreements lead to violence. While Morsi may be the “official” president, it is critical to keep in mind that over 50 percent of Egyptians did not initially vote for either Shafik or Morsi, and instead supported more moderate candidates. It is uncertain how this demographic will respond to Morsi as a leader, yet they play a key role in determining the country’s political future. Many who initially supported the revolution are stuck between a rock and a hard place, having to choose between a traditional Islamist and an old-regime secularist who might threaten revolutionary progress. In the face of a prolonged power vacuum, there’s a risk for conflict Egypt’s political parties to take a violent turn and trigger a second revolution.

 

As Shakespeare wrote:

 

“Expectations are the root of all heartache.”

 

Currently, expectations in Egypt for a quick resolution of the current political stalemate are low, but perhaps these low expectations are just what the nation needs as it comes to grip with a new governing reality.

 

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

 

 


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