I think that athletic footwear sales are bouncing to some degree off the bottom, as the 1, 2, and 3-year trend is in positive territory for the first time in 10 weeks. While trends are only marginally positive, I'd note that recent head-fakes were driven by inventory clearing activity. But this time, inventories appear squeaky clean.
That means less discounting, and a well-needed glimmer of hope for a down-and-out industry. The chart below from NPD Fashionworld (data I've found to be statistically significant) shows the y/y change in average price point spike to a three week trend of about 8%. That hasn't happened in years. Yes, compares are easy, but even on a 2 and 3-year run rate the numbers are looking more stable.
This synchs perfectly with comments from a source of ours who buys off-price merchandise at a relatively large US retailer -- "I've got money burning a hole in my pocket, and not enough product to buy." A disproportionate portion of these buys usually come from Sporting Goods retailers. That sends us a positive sign about the footwear inventory position at the Dick's, Sports Authority's, and Hibbetts' of the world. It also reaffirms what we already know -- that the major brands are showing some restraint as it relates to overbuilding product.
Let's not get too excited here -- the longer term trend here is still likely to turn this industry upside down (see past postings). But such change is not linear.
This is something to watch.
That means less discounting, and a well-needed glimmer of hope for a down-and-out industry. The chart below from NPD Fashionworld (data I've found to be statistically significant) shows the y/y change in average price point spike to a three week trend of about 8%. That hasn't happened in years. Yes, compares are easy, but even on a 2 and 3-year run rate the numbers are looking more stable.
This synchs perfectly with comments from a source of ours who buys off-price merchandise at a relatively large US retailer -- "I've got money burning a hole in my pocket, and not enough product to buy." A disproportionate portion of these buys usually come from Sporting Goods retailers. That sends us a positive sign about the footwear inventory position at the Dick's, Sports Authority's, and Hibbetts' of the world. It also reaffirms what we already know -- that the major brands are showing some restraint as it relates to overbuilding product.
Let's not get too excited here -- the longer term trend here is still likely to turn this industry upside down (see past postings). But such change is not linear.
This is something to watch.
