TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 16, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or -1.38% downside to 1338 and 0.61% upside to 1365.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/13 NYSE 2044
- Up versus the prior day’s trading of -792
- VOLUME: on 07/13 NYSE 683
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -10.58%
- VIX: as of 07/13 was at 16.74
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -8.67%%
- Year-to-date decrease of -28.46%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/13 closed at 1.62
- Up from the day prior at 1.31
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.48%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.49%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.25
- Unchanged from prior day’s trading
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, July, est. 4 (prior 2.29)
- 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, June, est. 0.20% (prior -0.2%)
- 9:30am: IMF releases updates to global economic forecasts
- 10am: Business Inventories, May, est. 0.2% (prior 0,4%)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-2b notes maturing Aug. 15, 2022- Feb. 15, 2031
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo bills, $27b 6-mo bills
- 7:30pm: Fed’s George speaks on monetary policy and farmland values in Kansas City
GOVERNMENT
- President Obama holds campaign event in Ohio
- Senate in session, House not in session
- Dominion Resources CEO Thomas Farrell speaks at House Energy panel field hearing on proposed EPA greenhouse gas new source performance standard for utilities, 9am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Citigroup to post 2Q results; watch investment bank, trade rev.
- Sales at U.S. retailers probably rose 0.2% in June
- U.K. FSA Chairman, Barclays ex-COO to testify at House of Commons committee on Libor-rigging scandal
- IMF to revise global growth forecasts; Lagarde has said forecasts will be lowered from April’s 3.5% projection
- Glaxo raises Human Genome bid to $14-shr: Reuters
- Visa, MasterCard in settlement w/ total value $7.25b on merchants’ antitrust swipe-fee suit; convenience-store assn. rejects settlement, Natl Retail Fed. says not party to suit
- Calpers to release preliminary performance results for past yr
- WTO set to issue ruling on U.S. complaint against China’s restrictions on U.S. electronic-pymt svc suppliers, 10:30am
- Trial of SEC vs. Brian Stoker, former Citigroup dir., begins
- Weekly agendas: Finance, Tech, Media/Entertainment, Industrials, Energy, Transports, Health, Real Estate, Consumers, IPOs, Rates, Canada Mining, Canada Oil & Gas
- Bernanke testifies, China housing, Google: Week Ahead
EARNINGS:
- Citigroup (C) 8am, $0.89 - Preview
- Gannett (GCI) 8:15am, $0.53 - Preview
- JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) 4pm, $0.66
- Cintas (CTAS) 4:07pm, $0.60
- Brown & Brown (BRO) 4:50pm, $0.31
- Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) 5pm, $0.46
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Hedge Funds Bet Right Before Longest Winning Streak: Commodities
- Speculators Cut Bullish Oil Wagers Before Rally: Energy Markets
- Wilbur Ross Says U.S. Coal Is Facing Years of Headwinds: Energy
- Corn at 10-Month High, Soybeans Costliest Since 2008 on Drought
- Oil Declines From One-Week High on China Slowdown, Hormuz Bypass
- Sugar Falls as Producer Supplies Seen Advancing; Cocoa Declines
- Worst-in-Generation Drought Dims U.S. Farm Economy Bright Spot
- Gold Set to Fall in London as Europe’s Debt Crisis Aids Dollar
- Soybean Meal Surges to Record as Drought Withers U.S. Harvest
- Copper Drops for First Day in Four on China Consumption Concern
- Gold Demand in India to Drop as Buyers Prefer to Hoard Cash
- Gulf Oil Less Crucial in Storms as Shale Grows: Chart of the Day
- BP Said to Buy Fuel Oil Cargo From Hindustan Petroleum for July
- Ghana’s Cocoa Mid-Crop May Be as Much as 80,000 Tons This Year
- Deficient Monsoon Challenges India’s Record Food Grain Harvests
- Soybeans May Set Record, Break Resistance: Technical Analysis
CURRENCIES
EURO – failed to hold Friday’s no-volume gains and is also failing to hold the 2010 closing lows; the Euro could go a lot lower; and the USD a lot higher (see our Q3 Macro Theme slides for the update on why); refreshed risk range for EUR/USD = 1.20-1.23
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – Friday’s no-volume USA rally on the lowest consumer confidence print in 7 months was based partly on a rumor China was going to cut again this weekend – but they didn’t, and Chinese stocks got cut to fresh YTD lows, down another -1.7% after Wen said that it needs to be “clearly understood” that #GrowthSlowing is accelerating on the downside.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL – jumping off my risk factoring page this morning for reasons I am not sure of (down -0.6% testing new lows at -3.2% YTD) with plenty of rumoring by the British on possible “attacks” (Iran); something to think about re Oil (+3.1% last wk) keeping a bid during the USD’s recent upswing; middle east tension has been out of the mainline news for a while now.
The Hedgeye Macro Team