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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 16, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or -1.38% downside to 1338 and 0.61% upside to 1365. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/13 NYSE 2044
    • Up versus the prior day’s trading of -792
  • VOLUME: on 07/13 NYSE 683
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -10.58%
  • VIX:  as of 07/13 was at 16.74
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -8.67%%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -28.46%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/13 closed at 1.62
    • Up from the day prior at 1.31 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.48%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.49%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.25
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, July, est. 4 (prior 2.29)
  • 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, June, est. 0.20% (prior -0.2%)
  • 9:30am: IMF releases updates to global economic forecasts
  • 10am: Business Inventories, May, est. 0.2% (prior 0,4%)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-2b notes maturing Aug. 15, 2022- Feb. 15, 2031
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo bills, $27b 6-mo bills
  • 7:30pm: Fed’s George speaks on monetary policy and farmland values in Kansas City 

GOVERNMENT

    • President Obama holds campaign event in Ohio
    • Senate in session, House not in session
    • Dominion Resources CEO Thomas Farrell speaks at House Energy panel field hearing on proposed EPA greenhouse gas new source performance standard for utilities, 9am

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • Citigroup to post 2Q results; watch investment bank, trade rev.
  • Sales at U.S. retailers probably rose 0.2% in June
  • U.K. FSA Chairman, Barclays ex-COO to testify at House of Commons committee on Libor-rigging scandal
  • IMF to revise global growth forecasts; Lagarde has said forecasts will be lowered from April’s 3.5% projection
  • Glaxo raises Human Genome bid to $14-shr: Reuters
  • Visa, MasterCard in settlement w/ total value $7.25b on merchants’ antitrust swipe-fee suit; convenience-store assn. rejects settlement, Natl Retail Fed. says not party to suit
  • Calpers to release preliminary performance results for past yr
  • WTO set to issue ruling on U.S. complaint against China’s restrictions on U.S. electronic-pymt svc suppliers, 10:30am
  • Trial of SEC vs. Brian Stoker, former Citigroup dir., begins
  • Weekly agendas: Finance, Tech, Media/Entertainment, Industrials, Energy, Transports, Health, Real Estate, Consumers, IPOs, Rates, Canada Mining, Canada Oil & Gas
  • Bernanke testifies, China housing, Google: Week Ahead 

EARNINGS:

    • Citigroup (C) 8am, $0.89 - Preview
    • Gannett (GCI) 8:15am, $0.53 - Preview
    • JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) 4pm, $0.66
    • Cintas (CTAS) 4:07pm, $0.60
    • Brown & Brown (BRO) 4:50pm, $0.31
    • Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) 5pm, $0.46

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Hedge Funds Bet Right Before Longest Winning Streak: Commodities
  • Speculators Cut Bullish Oil Wagers Before Rally: Energy Markets
  • Wilbur Ross Says U.S. Coal Is Facing Years of Headwinds: Energy
  • Corn at 10-Month High, Soybeans Costliest Since 2008 on Drought
  • Oil Declines From One-Week High on China Slowdown, Hormuz Bypass
  • Sugar Falls as Producer Supplies Seen Advancing; Cocoa Declines
  • Worst-in-Generation Drought Dims U.S. Farm Economy Bright Spot
  • Gold Set to Fall in London as Europe’s Debt Crisis Aids Dollar
  • Soybean Meal Surges to Record as Drought Withers U.S. Harvest
  • Copper Drops for First Day in Four on China Consumption Concern
  • Gold Demand in India to Drop as Buyers Prefer to Hoard Cash
  • Gulf Oil Less Crucial in Storms as Shale Grows: Chart of the Day
  • BP Said to Buy Fuel Oil Cargo From Hindustan Petroleum for July
  • Ghana’s Cocoa Mid-Crop May Be as Much as 80,000 Tons This Year
  • Deficient Monsoon Challenges India’s Record Food Grain Harvests
  • Soybeans May Set Record, Break Resistance: Technical Analysis

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


EURO – failed to hold Friday’s no-volume gains and is also failing to hold the 2010 closing lows; the Euro could go a lot lower; and the USD a lot higher (see our Q3 Macro Theme slides for the update on why); refreshed risk range for EUR/USD = 1.20-1.23

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Friday’s no-volume USA rally on the lowest consumer confidence print in 7 months was based partly on a rumor China was going to cut again this weekend – but they didn’t, and Chinese stocks got cut to fresh YTD lows, down another -1.7% after Wen said that it needs to be “clearly understood” that #GrowthSlowing is accelerating on the downside.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


ISRAEL – jumping off my risk factoring page this morning for reasons I am not sure of (down -0.6% testing new lows at -3.2% YTD) with plenty of rumoring by the British on possible “attacks” (Iran); something to think about re Oil (+3.1% last wk) keeping a bid during the USD’s recent upswing; middle east tension has been out of the mainline news for a while now.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team