TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 13, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -0.43% downside to 1329 and 1.44% upside to 1354.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/12 NYSE -792
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of 75
- VOLUME: on 07/12 NYSE 763.79
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -55bps
- VIX: as of 07/12 was at 18.33
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 2.12%
- Year-to-date decrease of -21.67%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/12 closed at 1.31
- Up from the day prior at 1.10
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.48%
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.47%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.23
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.22
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: PPI M/m, June, est. -0.5% (prior -1%)
- 8:30am: PPI Ex Food/Energy M/m, June, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
- 9:55am: U. of Michigan Conf., July, est. 73.5 (prior 73.2)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b coupon securities in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
- 1:20pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Jackson, Mississippi
GOVERNMENT:
- Opening news conf. at Natl Governors Assn. meeting, 10am
- House meets in pro forma session, Senate schedule TBA
- N.Y. Fed releases documents on troubles detected with Libor
- CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
- SEC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 1pm
- Acting Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank speaks at opening of first U.S. Patent and Trademark Office satellite in Detroit
- Wikimedia hosts 2012 Wikimania conference on government use of Wiki information networks, 9am
- National Academy of Sciences holds conference call briefing to discuss report on three options for National Bio-, Agro- Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas, 1pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- JPMorgan releases earnings; 2-hr call with analysts 7:30am
- Wells Fargo releases earnings
- Google’s Page in much better health, Chairman Schmidt says
- Lexmark cuts 2Q sales forecast, citing European demand
- Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett on BTV at 8am
- China’s growth slows to 3-yr. low on trade, demand
- New York Fed to release documents on Libor
- P&G board members said to discuss replacing CEO McDonald
- Bank of Korea trims 2012 growth forecast after cutting rates
- Italy credit rating cut by Moody’s; contagion, funding risks
- Italy readies $6.1b bond sale
- Darden Restaurants to buy Yard House USA for $585m
- Bernanke testifies, China housing, GOOG: Wk Ahead July 14-21
- JPMorgan’s ‘London Whale,’ two supervisors leave bank: WSJ
EARNINGS:
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 7am, $0.76
- Webster Financial (WBS) 8am, $0.44
- Wells Fargo (WFC) 8am, $0.81
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Carbon Surge Stokes Suspicion EU Ideas Leaked: Energy Markets
- U.S. Tightens Iran Noose With Sanctions on Tankers, Front Firms
- Copper Traders Most Bearish in Six Weeks on Demand: Commodities
- Asian Corn Demand Seen Gaining as Drought Shrivels U.S. Crop
- Oil Rises on China Stimulus Optimism, Tightening Iran Sanctions
- Corn Rallies in Best Weekly Run Since November on U.S. Drought
- Copper Advances as China Slowdown May Signal Additional Easing
- India to Review Sugar Exports After Sales Reach 2 Million Tons
- Gold Advances in New York on Speculation Over Stimulus by China
- Cocoa Advances After Falling 5.1% on Lower European Processing
- Malaysia Weather Dept. Sees 58% Chance of El Nino From August
- Bipartisan Attacks Stymie Bill to Overhaul U.S. Agriculture
- Malaysian Cocoa Maker Guan Chong Said to Consider Bids for Stake
- U.K. Seen Doubling Power Price to Guarantee New Reactor: Energy
- Rubber Gains, Paring Weekly Loss, as Rains Cut Thai Supplies
- Palm Oil Rebounds as Some Investors Cover Bets on Further Losses
- India to Sell Wheat From Reserve as Prices Surge on U.S. Drought
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team