TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 12, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -0.63% downside to 1333 and 0.94% upside to 1354.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/11 NYSE 75
- Up versus the prior day’s trading of -955
- VOLUME: on 07/11 NYSE 767.99
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 5.55%
- VIX: as of 07/11 was at 17.95
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -4.11%
- Year-to-date decrease of -23.29%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/11 closed at 1.10
- Down from the day prior at 1.69
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
10YR – fresh new #GrowthSlowing lows for the 10yr yield at 1.49% this morning and that’s really bad for the Financials, as the Yield Spread (10s/2s) also hits new lows at +123bps wide; not clear if Dimon’s fireside chat w/ the sell side’s finest tomorrow will change the economic gravity of the matter – the Yield Spread has never not gone back to flat in a big cycle (see 60yr chart from our deck yesterday).
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.48%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.52%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.23
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.26
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Import Price Index M/m, June, est. -1.8% (prior -1%)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, July 7, est. 370k (prior 374k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 8 (prior -37.5)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas change
- 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b coupon securities in 7/15/2013 to 1/31/2014 range
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30-yr bonds (reopening)
- 2pm: Monthly Budget Stmt, June, est. $60b (prior $43.1b)
- 2pm: NAHB midyear forecast
- 3:40pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Portland, Ore.
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate in session
- Senate Energy meets to review progress on eliminating environmental hazards at abandoned National Petroleum Reserve oil wells in Alaska, 9:30am
- House Energy panel holds hearing on proposed legislation to limit government programs backing alternative energy, 9:15am
- House Science panel holds hearing on spurring economic growth through NASA-derived technologies, 10am
- Dept. of Labor to announce settlement with BP regarding 2005 explosion at Texas City refinery, 11am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Yahoo! holds annual meeting today
- Yahoo! expected to name Levinsohn CEO: LA Times
- Blackstone teams up with investors for ING Asia insurance bid
- Supervalu sinks on strategic review, dividend suspension
- Peregrine customers’ claims priced at 25 cents on dollar
- ECB says overnight deposits fall to lowest in 7 mos.
- Maple, TMX Group obtain recognition orders from BCSC, ASC
- Dentsu buys Aegis in $4.9b deal to create global media, marketing network
- Peugeot shuts France plant, cuts extra 8,000 jobs; GM owns 7% of Peugeot
- JPMorgan is No. 1 stock picker in buy-side survey
- CFTC poised to adopt client-fund safeguards after MF Global
- DirecTV, Viacom talks continue as channels stay dark
EARNINGS:
- Cogeco Cable (CCA CN) 6am, C$1.06
- Cogeco (CGO CN) 6am, C$0.99
- Corus Entertainment (CJR/B CN) 7am, C$0.49
- Fastenal (FAST) 7am, $0.37
- Astral Media (ACM/A CN) 7:55am, C$1.01
- Progressive (PGR) 8:30am, $0.27
- Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) 9am, $0.72
- Novagold (NG CN) 9:15am, $(0.06)
- Resources Connection (RECN) 4pm, $0.72
- Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) 6pm, $0.52
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Gold 22% Rally to Record Seen by Sprott Amid Debt: Commodities
- Refineries Doubling Shutdowns Signals Oil Slide: Energy Markets
- Oil Falls on Signs Faltering Economy Is Eroding Fuel Consumption
- Cocoa Declines After Drop in European Cocoa Grind; Sugar Gains
- Goldman Lifts Grain-Price Forecasts as Drought Withers Fields
- Gold Retreats as Fed’s Minutes Lack Additional Stimulus Signal
- South African Platinum Output Falls for 11th Month on Prices
- Aid Welcomed by Drought-Stricken States as Losses Seen Worsening
- China Crushers Buy More Local Soybeans as Cost of Imports Jumps
- Cooking-Oil Imports by India Fall as Rupee Drop Deter Buyers
- Palm Oil Drops for a Third Day on Concern Slowdown Curbs Demand
- Sandfire Proves Cheapest Copper Target on First Profit: Real M&A
- Russia’s Stavropol Region Is Seen Reaping 40% to 45% Less Grain
- IEA Sees Global Oil Demand Growth Pickup in 2013 on Economy
- Copper Seen Falling Amid Further Signs of Worldwide Slowdown
- Corn Advances After USDA Cuts Outlook on U.S., World Harvests
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ITALY – Mario wasn’t kidding; it’s time to get out – the MIB Index -1.1% leads losers this morning and moves right back into crash mode (> 20% peak/trough decline YTD); Italy looks more suspect here than Spain – we went through why its size concerns us on our Q3 Macro Themes Call yesterday – email us if you missed the call and want the replay/slides.
ASIAN MARKETS
KOSPI – continues to be one of our most stealth leading indicators for Global Growth (particularly for Industrials and Tech), and apparently the South Koreans agree w/ us – they cut rates for the 1st time in 3yrs last night – and, contrary to popular #BailoutBull beliefs, that was not good for Asian stocks; KOSPI down hard on that -2.3% (Bearish Formation).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
