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May probably won’t come close to April’s decent showing on the Strip.

“For love that smiled in April
Is false to me in May."

-  Sara Teasdale, May  

Based on taxi data and McCarran Airport figures, we project that May gross gaming revenues (GGR) fell 2-6% YoY assuming normal slot and table hold percentages.  The number of enplaned/deplaned airport passengers increased only 0.3% while the number of taxi trips increased 2.1% YoY in May.  In April, strong baccarat volume and high slot hold drove an 8% increase in GGR.

May will likely look a lot different than April.  Here are the May hurdles:

  • Tough slot hold comparison – 40bps above normal in May 2011
  • Baccarat drop increased 58% in May 2011 to an all-time May record
  • May 2012 contained one less Sunday than 2011

Nevada should release May gaming revenues some time this week and they could disappoint expectations.

Here are our projections:

LV STRIP: MAY HEAT MAY NOT HAVE CARRIED TO THE FLOOR - MAY