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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 10, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or -1.66% downside to 1330 and 0.48% upside to 1359. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/09 NYSE -340
    • Up versus the prior day’s trading of -1048
  • VOLUME: on 07/09 NYSE 649.72
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 8.94%
  • VIX:  as of 07/09 was at 17.98
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 5.15%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -23.16%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/09 closed at 2.09
    • Down from the day prior at 2.31 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 37
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.53%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.51%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.27
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.25 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 6:05am: Fed’s Bullard speaks in London
  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Bus. Optimism, June, est. 93.3 (prior 94.4)
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, July, est. 46.9 (prior 46.7)
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, May, est. 3.588m (prior 3.416m)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1b-1.5b TIPS maturing 7/15/2018-2/15/2042
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-wk bills
  • 12pm: DOE short-term energy outlook
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama to deliver remarks on economy at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids. 12:50pm
    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate Banking meets on mobile payments, 10am
    • Senate Finance holds hearing on tax overhaul, 2pm
    • House Oversight holds hearing on Obama administration’s auto bailouts, Delphi pension decision, 10am
    • House Rules meets on the “National Strategic and Critical Minerals Production Act of 2012,” 3pm
    • House Energy panel holds hearing on alternative fuels, 10am
    • House Financial Services panel holds hearing on Dodd- Frank’s impact on consumers, job creators, 10am
    • House Ways and Means meets on tax implications of Supreme Court upholding Affordable Care Act, 10:30am
    • National Transportation Safety Board meets to determine cause of Enbridge pipeline rupture in 2010 that spilled oil into tributary of Kalamazoo River in Michigan, 9:30am
    • CFTC meets to consider final Dodd-Frank rules, 9:30am
    • World Trade Organization’s Dispute Settlement Body holds mtg where U.S., EU, Japan to request establishment of panel to rule on legality of Chinese curbs on rare earth exports   

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Alcoa earnings beat ests. after carmakers buy more aluminum
  • U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly surges most in a year, boosted by additional working day
  • RIM CEO Thorsten Heins faces investors at annual meeting
  • Duke CEO Rogers to testify in N.C. on leadership change
  • AMD says 2Q sales to fall 11%, reducing forecast
  • Intel agrees to buy 15% of ASML in $4.1b investment
  • Google said near $22.5m settlement over breach of browser
  • ASML rises 11% after Intel investment
  • Alibaba said to get $1b loan to fund stake buyback from YHOO
  • Euro states to speed Spanish bank aid
  • Spanish Economy Minister says Spain may pay <4% on bank bailout debt
  • Hurricane Emilia strengthens to Category 4 storm over Pacific 

EARNINGS:

    • Wolverine World Wide (WWW) 6:30am, $0.44
    • Jean Coutu Group (PJC/A CN) 7am, C$0.24
    • Shaw Group (SHAW) 7am, $0.58
    • Helen of Troy (HELE) 7:30am, $0.86
    • Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD/B CN) 1:30pm, $0.39 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

GOLD – continues to be the stealth leading indicator on what’s really left in these #bailouts (not much); Bearish Formation for the Gold price remains intact as long as TRADE line resistance of $1599 does; no support to $1551, but that’s loose. 

  • Bulls Lift Wagers by Most in Two Years After Rally: Commodities
  • Norway Ends Oil Strike, Averting Lockout of Platform Workers
  • Oil Declines as Norway Ends Energy Strike, China Curbs Imports
  • Wheat and Corn Futures Fall as Recent Price Jump May Curb Demand
  • China’s Gold Demand Seen Rising 13% as Council Pares Target
  • Sugar Climbs for a Third Day as Weather Fuels Supply Concern
  • Gold Set to Decline as Dollar Strength Curbs Investment Demand
  • Copper Rises 0.1% to $7,568 a Ton in London, Erasing Decline
  • Malaysian Palm-Oil Reserves at 14-Month Low as Output Slows
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bullish Gas Bets to Year High: Energy Markets
  • Oil-Backed Bond Losing Haven Status on Strike: Argentina Credit
  • Food-Stamp Clash Combines With Election to Slow Farm Law Revamp
  • Palm Oil Drops as Forecast Rain May Ease Stress on U.S. Soybeans
  • U.K. Dairy Farmers Face Going Out of Business or Taking Milk Cut
  • Rubber Declines to One-Week Low as China’s Demand May Weaken
  • China Cuts Copper Exports as Public Works Jump: Chart of the Day 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – was teetering on free-fall and tah-dah, another #bailout – or was it just a reiteration of the strong buy bailout that they already did on a different timeline? Piling more debt-upon-debt will only perpetuate the growth slowdown and amplify the market’s volatility in the meantime; TREND resist line for IBEX = 7361.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – down another -0.3% on bad trade data, but finally moves to immediate-term TRADE oversold within the context of a Bearish Formation (bearish on all 3 of our risk mgt durations – TRADE/TREND/TAIL); Shanghai Comp = -12% drawdown from the March highs; should bounce to another lower-high tomorrow.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team