TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 9, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 14 points or -0.64% downside to 1346 and 0.39% upside to 1360.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/06 NYSE -1048
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of -371
- VOLUME: on 07/06 NYSE 596.39
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -12.82%
- VIX: as of 07/06 was at 17.10
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.29%
- Year-to-date decrease of -26.92%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/06 closed at 2.31
- Up from the day prior at 1.50
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
10yr – US Treasuries have told you all you need to know about growth throughout another US Equity no-volume rally; at 1.51% this morning, the 10yr bond is immediate-term TRADE overbought (we’re long it). New risk range = 1.51-1.62% for the immediate-term as Treasuries remain in a Bullish Formation on the long end.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.52%
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.55%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.26
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.28
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 11 am: Fed to purchase $1.5-2b coupon securities maturing 2/15/2036-05/15/2042
- 11:30 am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo bills; $27b 6-mo bills
- 11:55 am: Fed’s Williams speaks in Couer d’Alene, Idaho
- 3pm: Consumer Credit, May, est. $8.5b (prior $6.5b)
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate in session
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Euro drops to two-yr low ahead of EU regional finance meeting
- Alcoa releases earnings after the close
- Bank of England’s Tucker to testify on Barclays Libor scandal
- Sony’s ‘Spider-Man’ tops N.A. box office with $65m in sales
- Boeing set to win GE jet order of 100 narrow-body 737s
- Farnborough Air Show coverage
- Monsanto trial against DuPont over Roundup-Ready crops to start
- Media moguls gather in Sun Valley, Idaho this week
- China GDP, JPMorgan, Air Show, Hollande: Week Ahead July 9-14
EARNINGS:
- Alcoa (AA) 4:03pm, $0.06
- WD-40 (WDFC), 4pm, $0.82
- Pricesmart (PSMT) After-mkt, $0.59
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Chavez Buys Enemy U.S.’s Fuel While Lauding Iran: Energy Markets
- Alcoa Profit Seen Plunging 81% on Aluminum Smelting Surplus
- JPMorgan Probe Shows FERC Priority on Policing Energy Markets
- U.S. Corn Growers Farming in Hell as Heat Spreads: Commodities
- Oil Rebounds From Biggest Drop in Two Weeks as Norway Halt Looms
- Corn Jumps While Soybeans Rally to 2008 High on U.S. Dry Weather
- Gold Set to Decline a Fourth Day as Stronger Dollar Cuts Demand
- Copper Advances 0.6% to $3.4305 a Pound in New York Trading
- LME Shareholders to Vote on $2.2 Billion Takeover on July 25
- El Nino May Widen Indian Rain Deficit as U.S. Flood Risk Gains
- Palm Oil Gains as Concerns Mount Over El Nino, U.S. Heat Wave
- Total Said to Buy 35,000 Tons of Naphtha From Bharat Petroleum
- Farms Break Subsidy Reliance With Record Exports: BGOV Barometer
- World to Dodge El Nino’s Spur to Cost of Food: Chart of the Day
- Rain Deficit in India Narrows to 25% as Monsoon Gathers Pace
- Rubber Declines Most in Two Weeks as Demand Concerns Strengthen
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – stocks and bonds are just a mess; after failing at TREND line resistance last week, the IBEX leads losers this morning, -1.6%, remaining solidly in crash mode at -25% from its YTD high. Central planners cannot change growth slowing; instead, more debt schemes perpetuate it.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – growth slowing in China is evidently not yet fully priced in; the Shanghai Comp got crushed again last night -2.4% and the Hang Seng was down -1.9% after failing at intermediate-term TREND resistance (20,091). Chinese inflation (CPI) hit a 29mth low in June (that’s good, but it all came pre the +9% rip in Commodities into 1st wk of July).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team