TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 6, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.63% downside to 1359 and 0.62% upside to 1376.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 7/5 NYSE: -371
- Versus prior trading day +1773
- VOLUME: on 7/5 NYSE 684.1
- Versus prior trading day 466.46
- VIX: on 7/5 closed at 17.50
- Change versus most recent trading day of +5%
- Year-to-date change of -25.21%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 7/5 closed at 1.50
- Versus prior trading day 1.40
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning: 38.35
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
- 10-Year yield: as of this morning 1.58%
- Versus prior trading day 1.60%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.30
- Versus prior trading day 1.31
MACRO DATA POINTS
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, June, est. 100k (prior 69k)
- 8:30am: Chg in Private Payrolls, June, est. 106k (prev 82k)
- 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, June, est. 8.2% (prior 8.2%)
- 8:30am: Avg Hrly Earn M/m All Emp, June, est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%)
- 8:30am: Avg Weekly Hours All Emps, June, est. 34.4 (prior 34.4)
- 8:30am: Underemployment Rate (U6), June (prior 14.8%)
- 10:30am: EIA storage data
- 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 1/15/2013 to 6/30/2013 range
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT
- President Obama signs transportation, student loan bill
- House, Senate not in session
- CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
WHAT TO WATCH
- Lagarde: IMF to Cut Growth Outlook as global economy weakens
- June U.S. jobs gain probably capped worst quarter since 2010
- Amazon said to plan smartphone to vie with Apple’s iPhone
- Seagate says 4Q prelim. sales, gross margin missed forecasts
- Samsung shrs decline after quarterly sales miss ests.
- Yahoo said to consider Hulu’s Kilar for CEO
- U.K. producer prices fall most since 2008 as oil costs drop
- Italian cabinet approves $32b in spending cuts through 2014
- Buffett, Zuckerberg, Gates to attend Sun Valley conference
- China GDP, JPMorgan, Air Show, Wimbledon: Wk Ahead July 7-14
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Sugar Bulls Strongest in Six Months on Brazil Rain: Commodities
- Copper Declines for a Second Day Before U.S. Employment Report
- Oil Drops Before Payrolls on Concern Economy Failing to Recover
- Corn Declines as Rally to Nine-Month High Seen Curbing Purchases
- Gold Declines for a Second Day as Dollar Strength Curbs Demand
- Sugar Heads for Second Weekly Gain in New York on Brazil Rains
- Soybean Meal Has Biggest Commodity Advance on Demand From China
- Indonesia’s Tin Exports to Decline as Low Prices Curb Output
- Copper-Scrap Discount May Widen as Prices Encourage More Supply
- BP’s LNG Expansion in Tangguh to Target Japanese, Korean Buyers
- Japan Atomic Disaster Called ‘Man-Made’ by Investigators: Energy
- Coffee Crop in India Seen at Record Poised to Boost Exports
- Gold ETP Assets Advance $2.2 Billion in June, BlackRock Says
- Copper May Advance 6.7% Near Moving Average: Technical Analysis
- Fuel Oil Returning to Profit on Iran Supply Cut: Energy Markets
- Oil May Rise on Signs of Recovery, Inventories, Survey Shows
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Corporate Sukuk Yield Premium Falls on Earnings: Islamic Finance
- Oil Extends Decline After U.S. Payrolls Count Misses Estimates
- Axius CEO Kaufmann Indicted in Alleged Scheme to Bribe Brokers
- Fuel Oil Returning to Profit on Iran Supply Cut: Energy Markets
- Sugar Bulls Strongest in Six Months on Brazil Rain: Commodities
- Amazon Said to Plan Smartphone That Would Vie With Apple IPhone
- Draghi’s Move to Zero Rates Fuels Talk of QE Entering ECB Armory
- Turkey Agrees With Iraq on Oil Pipeline From Basra, Yildiz Says
- Made-in-London Scandals Risk City’s Reputation as Finance Center
- Carry Trade Means 10% Lira Bond Returns Persist: Turkey Credit
- Middle West Oil Menaces Middle East Dominance: Cutting Research
The Hedgeye Macro Team
