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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 6, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.63% downside to 1359 and 0.62% upside to 1376.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - sector table

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 7/5 NYSE: -371
    • Versus prior  trading day +1773
  • VOLUME: on 7/5 NYSE 684.1
    • Versus prior trading day 466.46
  • VIX:  on 7/5 closed at 17.50
    • Change versus most recent trading day of +5%
    • Year-to-date change of -25.21%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 7/5 closed at 1.50
    • Versus prior trading day 1.40                     

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning: 38.35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.07%
  • 10-Year yield: as of this morning 1.58%
    • Versus prior trading day 1.60%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.30
    • Versus prior trading day 1.31

 

MACRO DATA POINTS

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, June, est. 100k (prior 69k)
  • 8:30am: Chg in Private Payrolls, June, est. 106k (prev 82k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, June, est. 8.2% (prior 8.2%)
  • 8:30am: Avg Hrly Earn M/m All Emp, June, est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Avg Weekly Hours All Emps, June, est. 34.4 (prior 34.4)
  • 8:30am: Underemployment Rate (U6), June (prior 14.8%)
  • 10:30am: EIA storage data
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 1/15/2013 to 6/30/2013 range
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

 

GOVERNMENT

  • President Obama signs transportation, student loan bill
  • House, Senate not in session
  • CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am

 

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Lagarde: IMF to Cut Growth Outlook as global economy weakens
  • June U.S. jobs gain probably capped worst quarter since 2010
  • Amazon said to plan smartphone to vie with Apple’s iPhone
  • Seagate says 4Q prelim. sales, gross margin missed forecasts
  • Samsung shrs decline after quarterly sales miss ests.
  • Yahoo said to consider Hulu’s Kilar for CEO
  • U.K. producer prices fall most since 2008 as oil costs drop
  • Italian cabinet approves $32b in spending cuts through 2014
  • Buffett, Zuckerberg, Gates to attend Sun Valley conference
  • China GDP, JPMorgan, Air Show, Wimbledon: Wk Ahead July 7-14

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Sugar Bulls Strongest in Six Months on Brazil Rain: Commodities
  • Copper Declines for a Second Day Before U.S. Employment Report
  • Oil Drops Before Payrolls on Concern Economy Failing to Recover
  • Corn Declines as Rally to Nine-Month High Seen Curbing Purchases
  • Gold Declines for a Second Day as Dollar Strength Curbs Demand
  • Sugar Heads for Second Weekly Gain in New York on Brazil Rains
  • Soybean Meal Has Biggest Commodity Advance on Demand From China
  • Indonesia’s Tin Exports to Decline as Low Prices Curb Output
  • Copper-Scrap Discount May Widen as Prices Encourage More Supply
  • BP’s LNG Expansion in Tangguh to Target Japanese, Korean Buyers
  • Japan Atomic Disaster Called ‘Man-Made’ by Investigators: Energy
  • Coffee Crop in India Seen at Record Poised to Boost Exports
  • Gold ETP Assets Advance $2.2 Billion in June, BlackRock Says
  • Copper May Advance 6.7% Near Moving Average: Technical Analysis
  • Fuel Oil Returning to Profit on Iran Supply Cut: Energy Markets
  • Oil May Rise on Signs of Recovery, Inventories, Survey Shows

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - commodity

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - currency

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Corporate Sukuk Yield Premium Falls on Earnings: Islamic Finance
  • Oil Extends Decline After U.S. Payrolls Count Misses Estimates
  • Axius CEO Kaufmann Indicted in Alleged Scheme to Bribe Brokers
  • Fuel Oil Returning to Profit on Iran Supply Cut: Energy Markets
  • Sugar Bulls Strongest in Six Months on Brazil Rain: Commodities
  • Amazon Said to Plan Smartphone That Would Vie With Apple IPhone
  • Draghi’s Move to Zero Rates Fuels Talk of QE Entering ECB Armory
  • Turkey Agrees With Iraq on Oil Pipeline From Basra, Yildiz Says
  • Made-in-London Scandals Risk City’s Reputation as Finance Center
  • Carry Trade Means 10% Lira Bond Returns Persist: Turkey Credit
  • Middle West Oil Menaces Middle East Dominance: Cutting Research

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Macro Team