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President Obama’s Reelection Chances

President Obama’s chances of being reelected in November climbed 1.3% week over week to 57.6%. What this election will boil down to is twofold: the outcome of the current crisis in the Eurozone and the performance of the stock market heading into November. This is the third consecutive week of an uptick for President Obama. Globally interconnected risk continues to live on and will remain a dominant theme in the months to come.

 

Hedgeye developed the HEI to understand the relationship between key market and economic data and the US Presidential Election. After rigorous back testing, Hedgeye has determined that there are a short list of real time market-based indicators, that move ahead of President Obama’s position in conventional polls or other measures of sentiment.

 

Based on our analysis, market prices will adjust in real-time ahead of economic conditions, which will ultimately shape voters’ perception of the Obama Presidency, the Republican candidates and influence the probability of an Obama reelection.  The model assumes that the Presidential election would be held today against any Republican candidate. Our model is indifferent toward who the Republican candidate is as the sentiment for Obama and for any Republican opponent is imputed in the market prices that determine the HEI. The HEI is based on a scale of 0 – 200, with 100 equating to a 50% probability that President Obama would win or lose if the election were held today.

 

President Obama’s reelection chances reached a peak of 62.3% on March 26, according to the HEI. Hedgeye will release the HEI every Tuesday at 7am ET until election day November 6.

 

 

President Obama’s Reelection Chances - HEI Jul2


HedgeyeRetail Visual: Oh SNAP!

 

Growing SNAP participation has been a significant tailwind for dollar stores over the last 5-years – that is likely to change by year-end. For this and other factors, we've been growing incrementally more bearish on both DG and FDO.


Since 2007, Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) - aka the federal Food Stamp Program participation rates have jumped 6pts to a 30-year peak at 15%. However, more notable is the slowing rate of participation growth. In fact, given the current rate of average sequential deceleration over the last 12-months of ~0.6%, SNAP participation growth will turn negative starting January 2013. Not good for the dollar store players (DG, FDO, DLTR) that are sitting at peak margins.

 

HedgeyeRetail Visual: Oh SNAP! - SNAP Part

 

 


JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD

CONCLUSION: Because we think the BOJ will keep its balance sheet on hold over the immediate-to-intermediate term, as well as our models pointing to a negative inflection in Japanese growth in 3Q, we are inclined to short Japanese equities over the intermediate term – ideally nearer to TREND resistance on the Nikkei 225 Index/on any pending TRADE line breakdown.

 

Not to be confused with something better reserved for an ultimate fighting octagon, the title of this note suggests that we think the solid Tankan report out of Japan overnight is additive to our view that the BOJ will maintain its reluctance to pursue incremental monetary easing over the immediate-to-intermediate term (next meeting JUL 11-12). Jumping back to the BOJ’s own Tankan Survey, the survey results suggest that the intermediate-term outlook for the Japanese economy is quite positive – at least relative to both conditions and expectations 3-6MO ago. 

  • 2Q Tankan Survey:
    • Large Manufacturers:
      • Sentiment: -1 from 4
      • Outlook: 1 from -3
    • Large Non-Manufacturers:
      • Sentiment: 8 from 5; highest since 2Q08
      • Outlook: 6 from 5; highest since 2Q08
    • All-Industry FY CapEx Growth Guidance: 4% from -1.3%; highest since 4Q07! 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 1

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 2

 

Our view that the BOJ is unlikely to ease in the immediate term stands in contrast to a growing consensus view that the BOJ is looking to expand its balance sheet at the current juncture – irrespective of the data!:

 

“I expect the BOJ to ease in July even after a slightly better Tankan. I don’t think it’s that relevant right now to what the BOJ is trying to do, which is to reach its inflation target. We have two new members from the private sector. They are much more sensitive to market sentiment.”

-Naomi Fink, head of Japan strategy at Jefferies Japan Ltd.

 

While we agree with Fink’s view that the new members on the BOJ board heighten the probability of BOJ balance sheet expansion (we made that call back on MAR 2nd), we think there is a case of Duration Mismatch to be exploited here, as both recent economic and financial market trends, as well as the BOJ’s own commentary are likely leading indicators of further BOJ inactivity for the time being.

 

From an economic data standpoint, recent trends in Japan’s external sector, consumer sector and manufacturing/production sector are quite positive, on balance, though it is fair to note that the most recent of the data points do show negative inflections in  the survey data (PMI, Economy Watcher’s) and in Capacity Utilization. With that being said, however, it is our view that the BOJ’s inability to meet its Asset Purchase Program targets in 10 straight operations and its own guidance from its previous meeting (APP left unchanged in JUN) will combine with the Tankan Survey results to overshadow the aforementioned inflections and keep them on hold for now.

 

“Japan is expected to return to a moderate recovery path as overseas economies emerge from the slowdown.”

-Statement from the JUN BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 3

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 4

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 5

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 6

 

A chart of Japan’s 5yr breakeven inflation rate – the slope of which having materially inflected in recent weeks – tells you all you need to know about expectations in Japan’s bond market for further BOJ balance sheet expansion over the immediate-to-intermediate term.

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 7

 

In light of our below-consensus expectations for global growth – particularly in economies where Japan is exposed to on the export front (China = 19.4%; US = 15.7%), we think the  BOJ remaining on hold is marginally positive for the Japanese yen. That view is consistent with what we’ve been publishing in our recent notes on Japan, namely highlighting our anticipation of JPY strength on a TRADE and TREND basis within the context of our TAIL-duration bearish thesis on the currency (vs. the USD). Unless this time is different, further yen strength from here will be yet one more bearish factor for Japanese equities over the intermediate term (in addition to a negative inflection in growth in 3Q and delayed implementation of further monetary easing – i.e. no more “drugs” for now).

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 8

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - JAPAN

 

All told, because we think the BOJ will keep its balance sheet on hold over the immediate-to-intermediate term, as well as our models pointing to a negative inflection in Japanese growth in 3Q, we are inclined to short Japanese equities over the intermediate term – ideally nearer to TREND resistance on the Nikkei 225 Index/on any pending TRADE line breakdown. Our risk management levels are included in the chart below.

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

 

JAPAN’S TANKAN SLEEPER HOLD - 10


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Q2 2012 HOTEL TRANSACTIONS

Still treading water


 

M&A and Other Trends for Q2 2012

  • Q2 2012 US hotel transaction volume was a meager $1.5 billion, up from Q1 2012's $1.0 billion, but down significantly from Q2 2011's $4.0 billion.  
    • The number of US hotel transactions in Q2 2012 almost double that in Q1 2012
    • US average price per key (APPK) in the Upper Upscale segment rose 24% QoQ
    • Non-US APPK in the Upper Upscale segment jumped because of the sale of Novotel Nathan Road Kowloon Hong Kong, the largest single hotel transaction in Hong Kong recorded in the last 11 years
    • All of the luxury transactions occurred outside of the US
  • There were four portfolio deals including Blackstone's purchase of Accor's Motel 6 unit
  • According to Fitch, May hotel delinquency rate was 11.15%, higher than April's 10.20%.  The higher hotel delinquency rate was partly due to the inclusion of the Marriott Waikiki to the hotel index.  The delinquency rate remains below the 14% seen in Q3 2011.

 

Q2 2012 HOTEL TRANSACTIONS - hotel1

 

Q2 2012 HOTEL TRANSACTIONS - hotel2

 

Q2 2012 HOTEL TRANSACTIONS - HOTEL1.5

 

Q2 2012 HOTEL TRANSACTIONS - hotel3


CHART DU JOUR: MACAU VIP HOLD

  • Macau managed only 12% YoY growth in June of 2012 despite an easy hold comparison – the typhoon took out most of last Friday’s revenues
  • Given the difficult July comp, it may be difficult for Macau to eke out a double-digit gain this month
  • September could be a big month with the easy hold comparison and opening of additional amenities at SCC.  However, the market faces difficult comps until February.

CHART DU JOUR:  MACAU VIP HOLD - HOTEL4


GROWTH SLOWING: SP500 LEVELS, REFRESHED

Our Growth Slowing call has been consistent since March (we shorted XLI on March 12th).

 

From our purview, the global economy is still feeling the ill-effects of the +13.6% run-up in global crude oil prices (Brent) from JAN 25 to its MAR 16 YTD peak (among other things, of course). As we penned in the Early Look on JAN 26 – the day our central planning chairman Ben Bernanke decided to extend ZIRP to 2014 and, thereby, reigniting the Inflation TradeGrowth Slows as Inflation Accelerates. Our process hasn’t changed (i.e. analyzing and forecasting deltas and noteworthy inflections in GROWTH, INFLATION and POLICY).

 

This morning we received additional evidence supporting the fact that economic growth continues to slow domestically. The Institute for Supply Management reported its monthly survey results this morning and the Manufacturing survey came in at 49.7. This is the lowest reading since JUN '09 and well below the consensus view of 52.2. Further, a reading below 50 implies a contraction (versus expansion) within this sector of the economy.

 

In addition to the ISM number in the U.S., we've had a slew of additional economic data points globally that continue reinforce that economic growth is tepid at best and that the great US decoupling is not really occurring. These JUN data points are as follows: 

  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 45.1 from 44.8; and
  • China Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 from 50.4; HSBC Index: 48.2 from 48.4;
  • South Korea Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 from 51;
  • Australia Manufacturing PMI: 47.2 from 42.4;
  • Taiwan Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 from 50.5;
  • Vietnam Manufacturing PMI: 46.6 from 48.3; and
  • Brazil Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 from 49.3. 

Whether or not this morning’s unfriendly reminder of the state of the global economy opens up the door for more stimulus at these prices remains to be seen, however. In this era of increasing short-termism out of both elected officials and stock market operators, the AUG 1 FOMC meeting seems like a lifetime away. There’s a great deal of risk to be managed between now and then. Our updated SPX levels are included in the chart below.

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

 

GROWTH SLOWING: SP500 LEVELS, REFRESHED - 1


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