Macau came in at the low end of our expected YoY growth range of 12-17%. GGR was HK$22.7 billion. We have heard the disappointment is volume-related and not necessarily due to hold.
July growth could be even lower as the month faces a more difficult VIP hold comparison than June (3.07% in July 2011 vs. 2.77% in June 2011). We are currently anticipating 10-16% YoY growth for July.
In terms of market share, LVS (finally) and Galaxy are trending above recent trends although it could be argued that LVS should still be doing better. We would be happy with share north of 19% until the rest of the amenities and hotel rooms open in September. Share north of 20% should be the bogey at that point. MGM share looks disappointing following a rebound in May. The June share looks more realistic going forward for MGM.