REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND

Initial Claims Are Actually Rising

Initial claims fell 1k last week to 386k. Incorporating the 5k upward revision to the prior week's data, claims fell 6k. Rolling claims fell 0.75k WoW to 387k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims rose 4k. NSA rolling claims are improving at a rate of ~8% YoY. 

Our Thoughts

There is a serial upward revision bias to this data driven by its calculation methodology, but upward revisions normally average 2-3k per week. The prior week's 5k upward revision paints a misleading picture of improving claims. In reality, claims continue to drift higher. This is consistent with our thesis regarding seasonal distortions in the data. We expect seasonally adjusted claims to rise through August before reversing.

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - Raw

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - Rolling

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - NSA

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - NSA rolling

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - S P

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - Fed

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - YoY

The 2-10 Spread

The 2-10 spread tightened 3 bps versus last week to 131 bps as of yesterday.  The ten-year bond yield fell 3 bps to 162 bps. 

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - 2 10 spread

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - 2 10 spread QOQ

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

 REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - Subsector performance monitor

REVISIONS MASK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS TREND - Companies

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Robert Belsky

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