Initial Claims Are Actually Rising
Initial claims fell 1k last week to 386k. Incorporating the 5k upward revision to the prior week's data, claims fell 6k. Rolling claims fell 0.75k WoW to 387k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims rose 4k. NSA rolling claims are improving at a rate of ~8% YoY.
Our Thoughts
There is a serial upward revision bias to this data driven by its calculation methodology, but upward revisions normally average 2-3k per week. The prior week's 5k upward revision paints a misleading picture of improving claims. In reality, claims continue to drift higher. This is consistent with our thesis regarding seasonal distortions in the data. We expect seasonally adjusted claims to rise through August before reversing.
The 2-10 Spread
The 2-10 spread tightened 3 bps versus last week to 131 bps as of yesterday. The ten-year bond yield fell 3 bps to 162 bps.
Financial Subsector Performance
The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations.
Joshua Steiner, CFA
Robert Belsky
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