- While the Macau stocks have been on a steady downward decline since late April over fears of a hard landing of Macau GGR, Junket VIP volume growth has been decelerating since September 2011
- Using just historical seasonality trends to project future growth, the chart below illustrates projected Junket VIP volume growth for FY2012 based on the prior two months of actual data. Using the actual results of July and August 2011, without adjusting for economic slowdown, our seasonality model would have projected a 47% increase in Junket RC volumes in 2012. However, in each subsequent month as data came in weaker than pure seasonality factors would have implied, the forecast for 2012 continued to calibrate lower to 15% based on May results.
- Layering in a continuation of decelerating macro factors onto our seasonality model, we are currently projecting that Junket RC volumes will come in at +10% YoY for 2012 and total GGR growth of 14% in 2012.
