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POSITIONS: Short Industrials (XLI)

Our Growth Slowing call has been consistent since March (we shorted XLI on March 12th). Our beta down-shift call from last week (100% Cash) into the Fed event was explicit.

We are in no hurry to buy stocks. That’s primarily because our immediate-term TRADE line of 1318 just snapped. That’s new as of this morning.

Across all 3 risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most right now:

  1. Intermediate-term TREND resistance = 1365
  2. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1318
  3. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1305

In other words, there’s no rush to jump out and “buy on valuation” because valuation is not a catalyst in a macro driven tape with Growth Slowing.

They sold this market on a good New Home Sales print this morning, which makes me feel all the more patient here.

Waiting and watching,


Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Bearish Breakdown: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX