TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 25, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -1.27% downside to 1318 and 0.00% upside to 1335.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/22 NYSE 1140
- Up from the prior day’s trading of -1901
- VOLUME: on 6/22 NYSE 1577.41
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 82.18%
- VIX: as of 6/22 was at 18.11
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -9.81%
- Year-to-date decrease of -22.61%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/22 closed at 1.65
- Down from the day prior at 1.81
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.62
- Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.67
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.33
- Down from prior day’s trading at 1.37
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, May (prior 0.11)
- 10am: New Home Sales, May, est. 345k (prior 343k)
- 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, June (prior -5.1)
- 11am: Fed to sell $8-8.75b notes in 3/15/2014-10/31/2014 range
- 11:30am: Treasury to sell $30m 3-mo. bills, $27m 6-mo.
- 4pm: USDA crop progress report
GOVERNMENT:
- Washington Week Ahead: Supreme Court may rule on health law
- Supreme Court may rule on challenge to health-care law
- House, Senate in session
- Senate to take up long-term flood insurance reauthorization
- Heather Zichal, White House energy and climate adviser, speaks on hydraulic fracturing at New Policy Institute, 12pm
- Export-Import Bank President Fred Hochberg speaks at Center for American Progress, 12pm
- Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard speaks at Women’s Foreign Policy Group discussion on “International Financial Diplomacy,” 1pm
- George Walz, VP at Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s Office of Risk, joins panel discussion on “FINRA Examination Data Collection Process,” 1:30pm
- HHS, CMS advisory panel meets on Medicare Economic Index price, productivity measurements, 8:30am
- WTO dispute settlement body meets in Geneva
- International Trade Commission to say whether it will review findings by 2 of its judges that MSFT, AAPL infringed Motorola Mobility patents
- Governmental Accounting Standards Board meets in Conn. to vote on state, local pension-reporting rules that would reduce funded levels of plans
WHAT TO WATCH:
- AB Inbev said to near Modelo takeover for more than $12b
- Supreme Court announces decisions; may rule on challenge to health-care law: preview
- ITC to say whether it will review findings that MSFT, AAPL infringed Motorola Mobility patents
- Fitch downgrades Republic of Cyprus to junk
- European leaders prepare for summit on currency union
- Tropical Storm Debby may spare Gulf of Mexico oilfields
- Russell Indexes to post final membership lists for indexes
- Shire falls after FDA unexpectedly approved a generic version of its hyperactivity medicine Adderall
- Pixar’s “Brave” opens at No. 1 in U.S./Canada theaters with $66.7m for parent Walt Disney
- JPMorgan to let CIO make potentially risky investments: WSJ
- Sales of new homes probably rose in May for 2nd month to 346k annual rate, according to median forecast by Bloomberg News
- New York settled a lawsuit for $410m with J. Ezra Merkin over claims that Merkin funds secretly placed client money with Bernard L. Madoff
- Banks need “healthy push” to avoid prolonging crisis: BIS
- Vivendi, whose mgmt met during the weekend to discuss strategy, said it had nothing to update investors with
- Bain said to pay $1b for 50% stake in Japanese TV company
- India plans measures to support rupee, spurring inflation
- No IPOs expected to price today: Bloomberg data
- Weekly Industry Agendas: Finance, Media/Entertainment, Industrials, Energy, Real Estate, Consumer, Health, Transports, Technology, IPOs, Canada Oil & Gas, Canada Mining
- U.S. Health Care, EU Summit, Google: Week Ahead June 23-30
EARNINGS:
- HB Fuller (FUL) After-mkt, $0.55
- Synnex (SNX) 4:01pm, $0.90
- Apollo Group (APOL) 4:05pm, $0.97
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG
- Bulls Proven Wrong as Prices Slump Into Bear Market: Commodities
- Gold Set to Decline in London as Stronger Dollar Curbs Demand
- Oil Trades Below $80 for a Third Day Amid European Debt Concern
- Grains Climb as Dry Weather Wilts U.S. Crops, Threatening Supply
- Copper Seen Advancing for First Day in Four Before EU Meeting
- Sugar Rebounds on Speculation Prices Fell Too Far; Coffee Slides
- Fonterra Farmers Approve Plan to Open Exporter to Equity Markets
- Morgan Stanley Expects Corn, Soybean Prices to Advance on Supply
- Hong Kong’s LME Deal Spurs Industry’s Steepest Slump: Real M&A
- Coal Plant Plunge Threatens Billions in Pollution Spend: Energy
- Hedge Funds Turning Bearish Push Oil Below $80: Energy Markets
- Florida Orange Trees Threatened on Tropical Storm Debby Floods
- Oil to End Commodity Currencies’ Divergence: Chart of the Day
- China Faces Summer Steel Output Cut on Prices: Chart of the Day
- Silver Seen Extending Drop as Support Breaks: Technical Analysis
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
RUSSIA – get the Dollar and the Petro price right, and you get the Petro-Dollar equities right – this is obvious in Russian stocks (next to Egypt’s -9% drop last wk, the RTSI led losers at -5% and has now eclipsed Spain on my drawdown sheet for 2012 at -27% from YTD top vs Spain and Italy at -24% and -22%).
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – Shanghai Composite starting to lead losers in Global Equities as #GrowthSlowing accelerates on the downside (down another -1.6% overnight; down -9.2% since beginning of May) – we highly doubt Bernanke or Geithner have a central plan for China, but you never know…
INDIA – Keynesian economic disasters tend to end with currency debauchery, then local crisis – India’s Rupee is in the middle of one of those and it’s a huge problem domestically as inflation is priced in local FX; but do not worry, India is now saying they are unveiling a “dozen steps to save the Rupee” – almost like a Tony Robbins thing I guess…
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team