CCL YOUTUBE

In preparation for CCL's 2Q earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary

 

  • "We have...recently seen some positive trends in our European business so we are hopeful that booking patterns will return to normal levels sooner than we might have originally expected."
  • FY 2012
    • Mid-point EPS guidance: $1.55
    • NCC (excluding fuel) per ALBD: flat versus the prior year
    • "As to the current status of bookings, on a fleet wide basis –  excluding Costa – occupancies for the remaining three quarters are lower than a year ago at slightly higher prices."
      • "For North American brands, occupancies were slightly lower at slightly higher prices and for EAA brands occupancies are lower at higher prices again."
    • "Costa is forecasting a loss for the year of approximately $100 million or a swing of $500 million from its previous earnings forecast."
  • Higher airfares between North America and Europe have been a challenge
  • "Our U.K. brands are holding up relatively well as compared to our Continental European brands. We have recently seen ...improving trends in Germany so we're hopeful that we have finally turned the corner there."
  • 2Q 2012 (ex-Costa)
    • "Fleet-wide capacity for the second quarter is up 2.7%, 2.9% for North America brands and 2.2% for EAA brands."
    • "On a fleet wide basis, pricing is slightly higher than a year ago at slightly lower occupancy versus last year."
    • "North American brand fleet wide pricing is higher than a year ago at flat occupancies. North American brands are 56% in the Caribbean, approximately the same as last year with the balance in various other itineraries. Caribbean pricing is nicely higher than a year ago at approximately the same occupancy levels as last year. Pricing for all other itineraries taken together is higher than a year ago at slightly lower occupancy." 
    • "EAA brand fleet wide pricing is slightly lower than a year ago on lower occupancy. EAA brands are 50% in Europe, slightly up from 47% last year with the balance in various other itineraries. EAA brand European pricing is up slightly versus a year ago on lower occupancies. EAA pricing on all other itineraries taken together is lower than last year also with lower occupancies."
    • "On an overall basis, we are currently forecasting that constant dollar revenue yields will be flat to down slightly for the second quarter, slightly higher in North America, slightly lower for EAA."
    • 2Q midpoint EPS: $0.07
  • 3Q 2012 (ex-Costa)
    • "Capacity is expected to be up in the 2.9% range, 3.4% in North America, 2.2% in EAA. On a fleet wide basis, third quarter pricing is higher than a year ago on lower occupancies. North American brand pricing is slightly higher than a year ago at lower occupancies."
    • "North American brand capacity in the third quarter is 38% in the Caribbean, slightly higher than a year ago, 24% in Alaska, the same, slightly higher and 25% in Europe, which is about the same as last year. Pricing for Caribbean itineraries is higher than a year ago with pricing for Alaska and Europe cruises flat with last year. Occupancies for the Caribbean and Alaska cruises are slightly lower versus last year and occupancies for Europe cruises are lower than last year."
    • "For EAA brands pricing is nicely higher than a year ago at lower occupancy. EAA brand capacity is 85% in Europe itineraries, which is slightly up from 82% in the prior year. EAA brand constant dollar pricing for European and all other itineraries is higher than a year ago on lower occupancies."
  • 4Q 2012 (ex-Costa)
    • "Fleet wide capacity in the fourth quarter is expected to be 2.9% higher than last year, 3.7% for North American brands, 1.7% for EAA brands.  Fleet wide pricing is slightly higher than a year ago at lower occupancies."
    • "North American brand pricing in the fourth quarter is flat versus last year at lower occupancies. North American brands are 43% in the Caribbean slightly higher than a year ago, 13% in Europe, which is about the same as the past year with the balance in various other itineraries. Caribbean pricing is higher than a year ago at higher occupancies. Europe pricing is also higher versus last year at lower occupancies and pricing for all other itineraries taken together is higher than a year ago on lower occupancies." 
    • "EAA pricing, where EAA brands are 61% in European itineraries is nicely higher versus the year ago at lower occupancies."
  • "The close-in patterns are good, which is not necessarily always good for us, we like to see further out booking patterns. And I think that's going to start to happen. As business gets stronger closer in, then bookings get pushed out and pricing becomes more sustainable."
  • "For Holland America, Princess and even Seaborne, they're doing fine except for these European cruises and they are doing all they can to try to shore that up right now. But Alaska seems to be okay, their Caribbean programs are fine, all their other long-term programs are fine."
  • "The major markets for Costa will be Germany, Italy..., France and Spain. We're seeing evidence in France and Spain, actually of their business coming back already, less so in Italy and Germany. But we need Italy and Germany – Italy for sure."
  • "I think 2013 should – obviously show an improvement over 2012. But it may take a year or two to get back to the kind of profitability that we expected to have in 2012."
  • [Including Costa] "Total capacity we're up 3.7% in the first quarter, 2.7% second, 2.9% third, 2.9% fourth, and 3.0% for the full-year."
  • [AIDA] "I think they're starting to see business come back. But there will be some level of hit because... in order to fill close-in, they've had to take pricing down a little bit."
  • "Excluding Costa, we probably had about 1.5 point of yield increase on the onboard side in the December guidance. First quarter came in much more than we had anticipated and so we did build in a little bit of an increase in those numbers for the remainder of the year. So we are seeing some good onboard spend increases. All of the categories are up, all the major categories including casino in the first quarter."
  • "I think Alaska has been pretty consistent and solid. I mean people doing more Alaska cruises than Europe cruises because of the cost of the Europe cruises going up, but Alaska seems to be doing okay."

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