TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 14, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.75% downside to 1305 and 0.54% upside to 1322.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/13 NYSE -1219
- Down from the prior day’s trading of 1640
- VOLUME: on 6/13 NYSE 707.13
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -2.32%
- VIX: as of 6/13 was at 24.27
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 9.87%
- Year-to-date increase of 3.72%%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/13 closed at 2.08
- Up from the day prior at 1.47
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.60
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.59
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.31
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.30
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Current Account Balance, 1Q, est. -$131.9b (prior -124.1b)
- 8:30am: CPI (M/m), May, est. -0.2% (prior 0.0%)
- 8:30am: CPI Ex Food & Energy (M/m), May, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, June 9, est. 375k (prior 377k)
- 9:45 am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 10
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas change
- 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $1.5b-2.25b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30-yr bonds (Reopening)
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama visits World Trade Center site in NYC
- Deadline set by federal judge for EPA to propose standards for soot pollution sought by environment groups
- SEC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 2pm
- Senate in session, House in recess
- Senate Energy and Natural Resources holds hearing on competition between U.S., China on clean energy, 9:30am
- House Oil and National Security Caucus holds discussion on gas prices, 12pm
- World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaks at a luncheon at Peterson Institute, 12pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Moody’s cuts Spain’s credit rating 3 steps to Baa3
- Spanish-German 10-yr. yld spread widens to euro-era record
- Italy sells EU3b of 3y bonds in first time after Spain bailout
- Nokia to cut 10,000 jobs globally by end 2013, trims outlook
- Swiss central bank pledges to defend franc cap
- Microsoft said to be in discussions to buy Yammer
- Felda Global Ventures said to raise $3.3b in IPO
- U.S. consumer prices probably fell for first time in 2yrs
- ABC, NBC, Fox said to finish ad sales orders for next season
- U.S. foreclosure filings fall 4% as lenders increase short sales
- Vector Capital raises Technicolor offer to EU2-shr
EARNINGS:
- Pier 1 Imports (PIR), 6am, $0.16
- Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6am, $0.53
- Kroger (KR) 8:15am, $0.73
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- BofA Beating JPMorgan After French Lenders Retreat: Commodities
- Gold Advances for a Fifth Day in London on Stimulus Speculation
- Oil Trades Near Eight-Month Low as OPEC Reviews Output Targets
- Copper Seen Rising on Speculation About Further U.S. Stimulus
- Cocoa at Four-Month High as Dry Weather May Reduce Next Harvest
- Ore-Ship Rates to Reach 22-Year Low as More Vessels Leave Yards
- U.K. Gas Falls as Norway Supply Rises, Work Halts Pipe Exports
- Europe Fuel Exports to Be Eclipsed by U.S. Boom: Energy Markets
- Rain, Pests Imperil India’s Wheat Crop as Warehouses Full
- Venezuela Overtakes Saudis to Hold World’s Biggest Oil Reserves
- OPEC Set to Keep Output Ceiling Unchanged Amid Europe Crisis
- Aluminum May Decline 7.3% on Topping Pattern: Technical Analysis
- Gulf Nations’ Break-Even on Oil Drops to $80: Deutsche Bank
- Japan Buys LNG From Spain, Brazil as Spot Soars Near Record
- South African Union Fight Threatens Biggest Platinum Suppliers
- Guar Futures Trading Suspension in India May End Next Month
- Indian Regulator Wants Banks Allowed in Commodity Futures
CURRENCIES
USD – get the Dollar right and you’ll get a lot of other things right; USD finally found an immediate-term TRADE oversold level in the morning yesterday; that took the immediate-term bloom off Gold’s rose; we’reregistering a lower-high of resistance for Gold at $1633 now (was at 1648 yest) and oil continues to crash (down -24% since Feb).
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ITALY – plenty of jib jab about Greece and Spain, meanwhile Italy continues to crash, down another -1% this morn and down -25% since March 19th (Spain is down -26% from its YTD top). Italy has economic stagflation, and that has historically traded at 7-8x EPS, so be careful calling things “cheap” (1970s stagflation is cheap).
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – sold off across the board after more US Growth Slowing data (US Retail Sales missed and Consumer Discretionary led the market lower, -1.5% yest); China continues to make fresh 3mth lows and the bailout guys keep begging for more rate cuts – maybe they should cut every other day? Indonesia led decliners -1.8%; Japan remains a mess.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team