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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 14, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.75% downside to 1305 and 0.54% upside to 1322. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/13 NYSE -1219
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1640
  • VOLUME: on 6/13 NYSE 707.13
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -2.32%
  • VIX:  as of 6/13 was at 24.27
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 9.87%
    • Year-to-date increase of 3.72%%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/13 closed at 2.08
    • Up from the day prior at 1.47 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.60
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.59
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.31
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.30 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Current Account Balance, 1Q, est. -$131.9b (prior -124.1b)
  • 8:30am: CPI (M/m), May, est. -0.2% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: CPI Ex Food & Energy (M/m), May, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, June 9, est. 375k (prior 377k)
  • 9:45 am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 10
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas change
  • 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $1.5b-2.25b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30-yr bonds (Reopening) 

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama visits World Trade Center site in NYC
    • Deadline set by federal judge for EPA to propose standards for soot pollution sought by environment groups
    • SEC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 2pm
    • Senate in session, House in recess
    • Senate Energy and Natural Resources holds hearing on competition between U.S., China on clean energy, 9:30am
    • House Oil and National Security Caucus holds discussion on gas prices, 12pm
    • World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaks at a luncheon at Peterson Institute, 12pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • Moody’s cuts Spain’s credit rating 3 steps to Baa3
  • Spanish-German 10-yr. yld spread widens to euro-era record
  • Italy sells EU3b of 3y bonds in first time after Spain bailout
  • Nokia to cut 10,000 jobs globally by end 2013, trims outlook
  • Swiss central bank pledges to defend franc cap
  • Microsoft said to be in discussions to buy Yammer
  • Felda Global Ventures said to raise $3.3b in IPO
  • U.S. consumer prices probably fell for first time in 2yrs
  • ABC, NBC, Fox said to finish ad sales orders for next season
  • U.S. foreclosure filings fall 4% as lenders increase short sales
  • Vector Capital raises Technicolor offer to EU2-shr 

EARNINGS:

    • Pier 1 Imports (PIR), 6am, $0.16
    • Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6am, $0.53
    • Kroger (KR) 8:15am, $0.73 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • BofA Beating JPMorgan After French Lenders Retreat: Commodities
  • Gold Advances for a Fifth Day in London on Stimulus Speculation
  • Oil Trades Near Eight-Month Low as OPEC Reviews Output Targets
  • Copper Seen Rising on Speculation About Further U.S. Stimulus
  • Cocoa at Four-Month High as Dry Weather May Reduce Next Harvest
  • Ore-Ship Rates to Reach 22-Year Low as More Vessels Leave Yards
  • U.K. Gas Falls as Norway Supply Rises, Work Halts Pipe Exports
  • Europe Fuel Exports to Be Eclipsed by U.S. Boom: Energy Markets
  • Rain, Pests Imperil India’s Wheat Crop as Warehouses Full
  • Venezuela Overtakes Saudis to Hold World’s Biggest Oil Reserves
  • OPEC Set to Keep Output Ceiling Unchanged Amid Europe Crisis
  • Aluminum May Decline 7.3% on Topping Pattern: Technical Analysis
  • Gulf Nations’ Break-Even on Oil Drops to $80: Deutsche Bank
  • Japan Buys LNG From Spain, Brazil as Spot Soars Near Record
  • South African Union Fight Threatens Biggest Platinum Suppliers
  • Guar Futures Trading Suspension in India May End Next Month
  • Indian Regulator Wants Banks Allowed in Commodity Futures 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


USD – get the Dollar right and you’ll get a lot of other things right; USD finally found an immediate-term TRADE oversold level in the morning yesterday; that took the immediate-term bloom off Gold’s rose; we’reregistering a lower-high of resistance for Gold at $1633 now (was at 1648 yest) and oil continues to crash (down -24% since Feb).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – plenty of jib jab about Greece and Spain, meanwhile Italy continues to crash, down another -1% this morn and down -25% since March 19th (Spain is down -26% from its YTD top). Italy has economic stagflation, and that has historically traded at 7-8x EPS, so be careful calling things “cheap” (1970s stagflation is cheap).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – sold off across the board after more US Growth Slowing data (US Retail Sales missed and Consumer Discretionary led the market lower, -1.5% yest); China continues to make fresh 3mth lows and the bailout guys keep begging for more rate cuts – maybe they should cut every other day? Indonesia led decliners -1.8%; Japan remains a mess.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team