TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 13, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -1.52% downside to 1304 and 1.19% upside to 1340.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/12 NYSE 1640
- Up from the prior day’s trading of -1830
- VOLUME: on 6/12 NYSE 723.91
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -2.23%
- VIX: as of 6/12 was at 22.09
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -6.24%
- Year-to-date decrease of -5.60%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/12 closed at 1.47
- Up from the day prior at 1.44
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
FED – we always find it funny to watch these cracker jack market politicians blame “speculators” on commodity inflation when the causality associated with what we have to speculate on is our expectations of their policy whispers. After listening to how conflicted/compromised Evans really is yesterday, Dollar fell and Gold/Oil/BasicMatStocks ripped. It’s the game we are in, sadly. So we’re playing it.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.66
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.37
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, June 8 (prior 1.3%)
- 8:30am: PPI (M/m), May, est. -0.6% (prior -0.2%)
- 8:30am: PPI Ex Food & Energy (M/m), May, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
- 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, May, est. -0.2% (prior 0.1%)
- 8:30am: Retail Sales Less Autos, May, est. 0.0% (prior 0.1%)
- 10am: Business Inventories, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0.3%)
- 10:30am: DoE Inventories
- 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes in 8/15/2020 to 5/15/2022 range
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $21b 10-yr notes (Reopening)
GOVERNMENT:
- House in recess, Senate in session
- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner discusses state of economy at Council on Foreign Relations ahead of next week’s G-20 summit
- Mitt Romney speaks to Business Roundtable at Newseum, 11:45am
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds summit on jobs, growth, 12pm
- Postal Regulatory Commission Chairman Ruth Goldway, Assn. of Postal Commerce President Gene Del Polito meet to discuss service, future of mail
- Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers posts applications for top-level domains, first look at companies, organizations seeking “dot-brand,” other domains, 8am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- JPMorgan’s Dimon testifies before Senate Banking Committee, 10am
- Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman touts differences from Dimon on risk after JPMorgan loss
- Italy’s borrowing costs surge at 364-day bill auction
- Philip Morris plans to buy back $18b of shrs in next 3 yrs from Aug. 1, set qtrly div. of 77c/shr
- J&J says $19.7b Synthes deal will add to earnings; Janssen unit in $12.9b accelerated buyback pacts
- Philipp Hildebrand, who resigned as head of the Swiss central bank in Jan., is joining BlackRock as vice chairman.
- ICANN to give a first look at Web domain wish list
- Nasdaq exchange immunity may limit losses from Facebook claims
- U.S. retail sales probably fell in May for 1st time in a yr as auto demand slowed, median forecast 0.2% decline
- Wal-Mart efforts to buy Latin American assets from Carrefour said to have slowed
- Rajat Gupta lawyers submit e-mails, wiretaps of Goldman’s Loeb
- Vornado expects to sell at least $1b of assets
- CBS is said to attract $2.7b in upfront advertising sales
- U.S. Justice begins antitrust probe of cable industry on online video limits: WSJ
- American Express, AIG, Legg Mason among cos. presenting at Morgan Stanley Financials Conference
EARNINGS:
- Dollarama (DOL CN) 7:30am, C$0.51
- Evertz Technologies (ET CN) 4pm, C$0.23
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
GOLD – so we bought that, for a trade. The new risk range for Gold is now $1, so we’ll probably sell it if we see the high end of that range as we think this Fed iQe4 upgrade thing is more about the expectation than Bernanke actually delivering on it next week. Stay tuned. We have no idea what Bernanke is going to do vs what he should do (nothing).
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GERMANY – Spain’s Rajoy idiotically wages “battle” vs the Germans this morning saying “I am waging it.” We couldn’t make that up if we tried, but these guys fighting about economic gravity is going to keep a lid on whatever is left of this European squeeze to lower highs. All European indices remain in Bearish Formations (bearish across all 3 of my risk mgt durations, TRADE/TREND/TAIL).
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team