THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 13, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -1.52% downside to 1304 and 1.19% upside to 1340. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/12 NYSE 1640
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -1830
  • VOLUME: on 6/12 NYSE 723.91
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -2.23%
  • VIX:  as of 6/12 was at 22.09
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -6.24%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -5.60%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/12 closed at 1.47
    • Up from the day prior at 1.44 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


FED – we always find it funny to watch these cracker jack market politicians blame “speculators” on commodity inflation when the causality associated with what we have to speculate on is our expectations of their policy whispers. After listening to how conflicted/compromised Evans really is yesterday, Dollar fell and Gold/Oil/BasicMatStocks ripped. It’s the game we are in, sadly. So we’re playing it. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.66
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.37 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, June 8 (prior 1.3%)
  • 8:30am: PPI (M/m), May, est. -0.6% (prior -0.2%)
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food & Energy (M/m), May, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, May, est. -0.2% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Less Autos, May, est. 0.0% (prior 0.1%)
  • 10am: Business Inventories, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0.3%)
  • 10:30am: DoE Inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes in 8/15/2020 to 5/15/2022 range
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $21b 10-yr notes (Reopening) 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House in recess, Senate in session
    • Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner discusses state of economy at Council on Foreign Relations ahead of next week’s G-20 summit
    • Mitt Romney speaks to Business Roundtable at Newseum, 11:45am
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds summit on jobs, growth, 12pm
    • Postal Regulatory Commission Chairman Ruth Goldway, Assn. of Postal Commerce President Gene Del Polito meet to discuss service, future of mail
    • Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers posts applications for top-level domains, first look at companies, organizations seeking “dot-brand,” other domains, 8am 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • JPMorgan’s Dimon testifies before Senate Banking Committee, 10am
  • Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman touts differences from Dimon on risk after JPMorgan loss
  • Italy’s borrowing costs surge at 364-day bill auction
  • Philip Morris plans to buy back $18b of shrs in next 3 yrs from Aug. 1, set qtrly div. of 77c/shr
  • J&J says $19.7b Synthes deal will add to earnings; Janssen unit in $12.9b accelerated buyback pacts
  • Philipp Hildebrand, who resigned as head of the Swiss central bank in Jan., is joining BlackRock as vice chairman.
  • ICANN to give a first look at Web domain wish list
  • Nasdaq exchange immunity may limit losses from Facebook claims
  • U.S. retail sales probably fell in May for 1st time in a yr as auto demand slowed, median forecast 0.2% decline
  • Wal-Mart efforts to buy Latin American assets from Carrefour said to have slowed
  • Rajat Gupta lawyers submit e-mails, wiretaps of Goldman’s Loeb
  • Vornado expects to sell at least $1b of assets
  • CBS is said to attract $2.7b in upfront advertising sales
  • U.S. Justice begins antitrust probe of cable industry on online video limits: WSJ
  • American Express, AIG, Legg Mason among cos. presenting at Morgan Stanley Financials Conference

EARNINGS:

    • Dollarama (DOL CN) 7:30am, C$0.51
    • Evertz Technologies (ET CN) 4pm, C$0.23

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

GOLD – so we bought that, for a trade. The new risk range for Gold is now $1, so we’ll probably sell it if we see the high end of that range as we think this Fed iQe4 upgrade thing is more about the expectation than Bernanke actually delivering on it next week. Stay tuned. We have no idea what Bernanke is going to do vs what he should do (nothing).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – Spain’s Rajoy idiotically wages “battle” vs the Germans this morning saying “I am waging it.” We couldn’t make that up if we tried, but these guys fighting about economic gravity is going to keep a lid on whatever is left of this European squeeze to lower highs. All European indices remain in Bearish Formations (bearish across all 3 of my risk mgt durations, TRADE/TREND/TAIL).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more