THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 12, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 42 points or -1.90% downside to 1284 and 1.30% upside to 1326. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1a

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/00 NYSE -1830
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1238
  • VOLUME: on 6/11 NYSE 740.42
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 6.91%
  • VIX:  as of 6/11 was at 23.56
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 10.98%
    • Year-to-date increase of 68bps
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/11 closed at 1.44
    • Up from the day prior at 1.34 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.05%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.61
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.59
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.34
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.32 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Bus. Optimism, May, est. 94.0 (prior 94.5)
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index (M/m), May, est. -1.0% (prior -0.5%)
  • 8:30am: WASDE
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, June, est. 47.3 (prior 48.5)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-2.25b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-wk. bills
  • 12pm: DOE short-term energy outlook
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 1pm: World Bank Releases Global Economic Forecast
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Stmt., May, est. -$125.0b (prior - $57.6b)
  • 4:30pm: API inventories 

GOVERNMENT:

    • FDIC Board of Governors meets on implementing Basel III provisions on defining which companies are “predominantly engaged in financial activities,” 10am
    • SEC holds meeting of Dodd-Frank Advisory Committee, 10am
    • Senate in session, House meets in pro forma session
    • Senate Judiciary hears from Attorney General Eric Holder at oversight hearing, 10am
    • Senate Finance holds hearing on impact of tax reform on energy policy, 10am
    • DOE holds meeting of Nuclear Energy Advisory Committee on small modular reactors and used nuclear fuel, 8:30am
    • IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks at “Back to Rio, The Road to a Sustainable Economic Future” conference, presented by Center for Global Development, 10am
    • Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe discusses outlook for the U.S. Postal Service in keynote speech at PostalVision 2012 event of customers and shippers, 10:15am 

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • U.S. employers plan to add jobs in 3Q: Manpower survey
  • Europe’s AAA members at risk as debt crisis worsens: Fitch
  • Buffett pounces in private-jet slump with record $9.6b order
  • TomTom gains after Apple agreed to use its digital maps in new mobile services
  • Kodak says 20 patent bidders sign non-disclosure agreements
  • China’s new loans exceeded ests. in May, more money went into longer-term lending
  • Unitas Capital, Stanley Black & Decker, Carlyle Group said to be invited to make 2nd-round bids for Infastech
  • JPMorgan knew of London trading risks two years ago: WSJ
  • JPMorgan could have spotted trouble at its CIO long before traders there racked up at least $2b in losses; one reason it didn’t: CEO Jamie Dimon.
  • Rajat Gupta lost a bid to have a jury hear wiretaps of Goldman executive David Loeb tipping Galleon co-founder Raj Rajaratnam
  • U.S. Commerce Secretary John Bryson to take medical leave
  • U.S. media industry rev. rises 2nd straight yr: PWC
  • Goldman brings back Mark Schwartz as chairman for Asia
  • Lilly targets Sanofi’s top diabetes drug with weight loss effect
  • World Bank releases semi-annual global economic forecast
  • Morgan Stanley, other global banks undergoing credit review by Moody’s; decision expected by end of month 

EARNINGS:

    • FactSet Research Systems (FDS) 7am, $1.16
    • Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.16
    • Casey’s General Stores (CASY) 4pm, $0.67 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

 

COMMODITIES – despite Chucky telling you it’s still time to dance, the USD is holding its bid and Commodities continue toward crash zones (20% peak to now declines); Oil’s reversal yesterday was impressive; Brent will finally be immediate-term oversold at $96.29.

  • Pink Slime No Brake to Beef Rally as Herd Contracts: Commodities
  • Gold Hinges on Emerging Markets, Not Inflation: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Declines for a Fourth Day on Naimi Comments, Iran Exemptions
  • Japan May Take Indonesia to WTO Over Ban on Ore Shipments
  • Copper Seen Declining on Skepticism About Spanish Bank Rescue
  • Robusta Coffee Falls to One-Month Low as Indonesian Sales Rise
  • Thai Mills to Boost Refined Sugar Output as Premium Climbs
  • Palm Oil Falls on Speculation Malaysian Production Set to Climb
  • Shanghai Rubber Support Seen at 22,000 Yuan: Technical Analysis
  • Soybeans Gain as U.S. Crop Conditions Deteriorate; Corn Rises
  • Oil Supplies Fall Most in Five Months in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Japan Seeks Least Milling Wheat in Seven Weeks in Tender
  • Rinehart Seeks to Reclaim 3 Billion-Ton Iron Deposit Stake
  • Gold Drops First Day in Three on Europe
  • Gold Drops With Commodities on Concern Europe Crisis Escalating
  • Cooking-Oil Imports by India Set to Advance for Fourth Month
  • Rubber Declines on Concern European Debt Crisis Is Deepenin

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CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

ITALY Geithner/Lagarde forgot to tell the Italians they’re going to get bailed out; MIB Index hammered for the wk to-date, adding to losses this morning (don’t forget Italy is also in crash mode, down -24% since March 19th) and economic stagflation continues to be a reality of a centrally planned life. Not 1 European stock market has recovered 1 of our immediate term TRADE lines on this no volume bounce.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

JAPAN – Japan is suspiciously out of the news (other than in Japan or for those that are risk managing it) but Japanese stocks led losers again last night, down another 1%, inching closer to their own fiscal cliff and a market crash zone (Nikkei -17% since March). The IMF now has an opinion on the Japanese Yen’s “valuation” (not kidding) and has joined Krugman in telling the Japanese to print/stimulate. Won’t end well.

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team


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