TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 11, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.56% downside to 1305 and 1.38% upside to 1344.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/08 NYSE 1238
- Up from the prior day’s trading of -252
- VOLUME: on 6/08 NYSE 692.56
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -18.96%
- VIX: as of 6/08 was at 21.23
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.26%
- Year-to-date decrease of -9.27%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/08 closed at 1.34
- Down from the day prior at 1.43
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.66
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.63
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.37
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 11am: Fed to sell $1b-1.5b TIPS in 4/15/2013 to 4/15/2015 range
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. notes
- 12pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on U.S. economy in Chicago
- 12pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in San Francisco
- 6pm: Fed’s Pianalto speaks on education
GOVERNMENT:
- House in recess, Senate in session
- Supreme Court issues case rulings, only day this week
- National Governors Association, National Association of State Budget Officers hold conference call briefing to discuss biannual “Fiscal Survey of States,” 11:30am
- Week Ahead in Washington, Jun 11-15
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Spain asked euro-region govts. for as much as EU100b ($125b) to rescue its banking system, details of main agreement here
- Italy in focus after Spain bank rescue
- Spain bondholders may rank behind official loans on bailout
- China’s exports rose in May at more than double the pace analysts estimated while industrial output, retail sales trailed forecasts
- J&J said to pay $2.2b to settle Risperdal U.S. sales probes
- Goldman may sell hedge-fund admin. unit to State Street
- AMR CEO Tom Horton says co. plans to emerge from bankruptcy protection as independent co.
- Rajat Gupta won’t be witness as his insider-trading trial enters final wk
- Calls to dismiss CEO McClendon are rising at Chesapeake
- Facebook among those on preliminary list for Russell 3000
- WW Grainger releases prelim. sales; watch Fastenal
- Apple may discuss new laptops, iOS updates at developers conference
- EQT agrees to buy BSN Medical from Montagu for $2.3b
- Texas Instruments hold mid-qtr forecast call after close
- Watch casino stocks on data from Las Vegas, Atlantic City
- “Madagascar 3” is weekend’s top film with $60.4m in sales
- U.S. Inflation, Apple, OPEC, Egypt Votes: Week Ahead June 9-16
EARNINGS:
- Finisar (FNSR) 4pm, $0.21
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COMMODIITIES – banker bailouts have been prioritized over global consumers now for 5 yrs; that won’t change this morning with Brent Oil shooting back above $100/barrel. Piling more debt-upon-debt is not the way out because it jacks consumers with inflation – and that perpetuates #GrowthSlowing.
- Speculators Fail to Reap Crop Rally After Wager Cut: Commodities
- Copper Jumps Most in Four Months as Chinese Imports Increase
- Goldman Predicts 29% Return From Commodities Over a Year
- Commodities Climb as China’s Imports Jump, Spain Seeks Bailout
- Oil Advances Most in Five Months on Spain Bailout, China Imports
- Gold Seen Advancing as Dollar’s Value Slumps Against the Euro
- Corn Advances for Fourth Day as Dry Weather Threatens U.S. Crop
- LNG Trading Surges as Tullett, Morgan Stanley Seek Asian Premium
- Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Gas Bets on Supply Worry: Energy Markets
- Sugar Rises to Six Week-High as Rains Delay Harvesting in Brazil
- OPEC Poised to Break 10-Year Habit of Supply Cuts During Routs
- Wheat Stockpiles Contracting on Drought From U.S. to Russia
- Palm Oil Climbs as Malaysian Stockpiles Tumble to 13-Month Low
- Pork on Import Menu Helps China Curb Inflation: Chart of the Day
- Speculators Cut Wagers on Crop Price Rally
- Sugar May Tumble to Two-Year Low on Surplus, Kingsman Forecasts
- Iraq Says Oil Price Decline Is Severe; Surplus ‘Tremendous’
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
EUROPE – Spanish stocks are up +3.5% right out of the box and way overbought (instead of down -31% YTD, now they are down -24% YTD, but still crashing = short selling opportunity); DAX is the most important European tape to watch with immediate-term TRADE resistance line that matters most = 6338. We’re looking to re-load on European shorts, across the board.
EURO – uninspiring rally given how large the short position out there is; provided that the EUR/USD can’t overcome $1.27 TRADE resistance, it remains in a Bearish Formation (bearish on all 3 durations) – that makes sense if these characters are going to put their short-term political lives ahead of whatever long-term economic planning remains.
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team