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Chart of the Day

-          Chinese rebar futures markets not betting on stimulus working in construction

-          Rebar spot prices down about 20% Y-o-Y nominal

-          Worth watching to gauge informed local market expectations for construction activity/heavy equipment demand

Industrials Chart of the Day & Sector Commentary - chart1 rebar futures

Navistar Miss:  Navistar reported some very challenging results and the shares have sold off significantly today.  The lack of clarification on the company’s engine certification was particularly troubling.  Even after a period of significant underperformance relative to Paccar, Paccar still trades at a 23% discount to Navistar on an Adjusted EV/2011 EBITDA basis.  While this may reflect some concerns about Paccar’s SEC inquiry, that is a less significant business headwind than not meeting *2010* emissions targets in mid-2012.

Industrials Chart of the Day & Sector Commentary - chart2 adjev ebitda

Sub-Industry Performance

Industrials Chart of the Day & Sector Commentary - chart 3 sub industry performance 6 7